NFL MVP Watch: Ranking the Top 5 MVP Odds Candidates Heading into Week 6

The NFL MVP odds have all quarterbacks in the top 5 spots. But, the name at the top of the list may surprise you. Click here for the latest NFL MVP watch
Brian Good
Thu, October 14, 9:46 AM EDT

NFL MVP Watch: Ranking the Top 5 MVP Odds Candidates Heading into Week 6

Here we are, five games into the NFL season and we’re already having the NFL MVP conversation. The latest NFL MVP odds have made the talk around this year’s award even that much more interesting, as there are a handful of players that all look poised to win it.

We have NFL MVP candidates like Kyler Murray, leading his team to the only unbeaten record in the league through five games this season. The Cardinals have a tough game against the Browns, in Cleveland, this week, so we should see his odds shift following Sunday’s game, one way or another.

Then there are guys like Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes that have good NFL MVP odds and already have an award on their mantle. There are lots of different options when it comes to the 2021 NFL MVP.

Let’s take a look at the top five when it comes to this year’s NFL MVP odds.

The latest NFL MVP odds

NFL MVP Watch: Top 5 NFL MVP Odds

1. Josh Allen @ +500

I thought Josh Allen had as good of a claim to NFL MVP last year as anyone in the NFL. It just so happened that he lost to one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game in Aaron Rodgers. This year, the NFL MVP odds are taking note of just how good Allen truly is. And, after five weeks, Josh Allen is the favorite to win MVP this season.

In five games, Allen is 9th in the NFL in yards with 1,370, fifth in the NFL in passing touchdowns (12), 6th in the NFL in QBR (65.3) and has thrown just two interceptions. He has done all this while leading his team to a 4-1 overall record after a hiccup in Week 1 against the Steelers. Last week, in primetime, he outduelled fellow MVP hopeful Patrick Mahomes en route to a lopsided win.

 

2. Kyler Murray @ +550

When it comes to NFL MVP odds and who is the favorite, it depends which sportsbooks you use. Most have Josh Allen as the favorite, but there are a few that have Allen and Kyler Murray in a tie to win the award. Kyler Murray has been fantastic this season, building on a great year in 2020 and taking it to another level in his third season in the league.

Right now, Murray’s 1,512 passing yards are sixth in the NFL. He has thrown for 10 TDs and just four INTs and is third in the NFL in QBR (68.5). Add that to what he can do with his legs, escaping pressure and taking off when he needs to, and you can see why the hype around Murray is at an all-time high.

Murray and the Cardinals face one of their tougher tests of the season this week, traveling to Cleveland for a game against the 3-2 Browns.

The latest NFL MVP odds

3. Dak Prescott @ +700

Forget NFL Comeback Player of the Year, and award Prescott has pretty much already won just five weeks into the year, Dak Prescott is a real-deal NFL MVP challenger. At +700, Prescott has the third shortest odds in the league. At some places, like FanDuel, Prescott’s NFL MVP odds are as short as +600.

The challenge for Prescott comes with the lack of talent within his division. Murray and Allen play in competitive divisions. They have to face challenging teams no matter who they take on for their division games. For Prescott, a single loss against the NFC East would be a massive knock to his chances.

Still, Prescott has his team out to a 4-1 start to the year as their only loss came to the defending champion Buccaneers. His numbers aren’t as impressive as Allen and Murray right now, but his 13-3 TD-INT ratio is definitely MVP-worthy.

4. Justin Herbert @ 750

If you’re looking to bet on Justin Herbert’s NFL MVP odds, you better shop for the best price. Herbert can be had at +750 at PointsBet, but is as short as +600, the same odds as Prescott, in places like FanDuel.

Justin Herbert is no longer one of the great “young” QBs in the NFL. He;s officially just one of the best quarterbacks in the world.

Herbert’s 1,576 yards are third in the NFL and he has an identical 13-3 TD-INT ratio to Prescott. What’s been most impressive about Herbert has been the stretch his team is currently on. After a Week 2 loss to the Cowboys, the Chargers have ripped off three straight wins. First, they took down the defending AFC Champion Chiefs, then the unbeaten Raiders and finally the one-loss Browns.

It doesn’t get any easier this week for Herbert and the Chargers as they travel to Baltimore to take on fellow MVP hopeful Lamar Jackson and the 4-1 Ravens.

 

5. Tom Brady @ +800

The only justification for Tom Brady being this far down the MVP odds board is voter fatigue. If you take a completely unbiased look at the numbers, Brady is having the best season of any QB in the entire NFL.

Tom Brady, at age 44 with seven Super Bowl rings to his name, has 1,767 passing yards, good for first in the NFL, 15 passing touchdowns, ranking 2nd in the league, and has thrown just two INTs. The Buccaneers are also 4-1, with their only loss coming to a strong LA Rams team earlier in the season.

The GOAT seems to be aging backward. The only game on the schedule that you could argue was a “below-average performance”, which was the win against the New England Patriots, which I’m sure had something to do with his emotions. If at the end of the year, the Buccaneers are sitting there atop the NFC South with 2-3 losses, you can guarantee Tom Brady will have that 2022 NFL MVP award.

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