NFL MVP Power Rankings: Ranking the Top 10 Candidates and Best Values

After Week 6, we take a look at the NFL MVP race and give you the best value plays out of the top-10.
Matt O'Leary
Tue, October 19, 5:51 AM EDT

NFL MVP Power Rankings: Ranking the Top 10 Candidates and Best Values

Through six weeks of the NFL season, we have a pretty good idea where guys are projecting to finish the season. It’s not exactly the halfway point of the season but you’re finally able to get semi-realistic projections over a 17 game season. 

Right now, Kyler Murray is the favorite to win the MVP at +450. There are 10 candidates that have +4000 odds or better and nine of them are quarterbacks. What we’ll do today is look at the top-10 list and try to find you some good value here.

Top 10 NFL MVP Candidates

Name Odds
Kyler Murray +450
Josh Allen +500
Dak Prescott +550
Tom Brady +900
Aaron Rodgers +1200
Matthew Stafford +1200
Lamar Jackson +1300
Justin Herbert  +1500
Patrick Mahomes +1800
Derrick Henry +4000

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Best NFL MVP Values

Patrick Mahomes +1800

It’s been a weird start to the season for the Kansas City Chiefs as they sit at just 3-3. It’s been an uncharacteristic start and even Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been his normal self. He has eight interceptions in six games. Considering he has 11 combined in 2019 and 2020 this is a pretty big deal. While the miscues have been the bigger story he still leads the league with 18 passing touchdowns and is third in yards, 11th in rating, and second in QBR.

While no one would argue that it hasn’t been an “off” start for Mahomes, there’s absolutely a chance that he can salvage his season over 11 more games. He’s on pace for 51 touchdown passes and over 5,300 yards passing. 

He may be ninth on this list right now at +1800 but you’re buying at arguably his lowest value. If he starts to go on a run, which based on what we’ve seen from Mahomes in his career that’s not out of the question, he will climb this list quickly.

Tom Brady +900

It’s genuinely insane what Tom Brady is doing at this point in his career. At 44 years old, he has his Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5-1 and he ranks first in yards, second in touchdowns, first in yards per game, and fourth in QBR. 

The Bucs only have three games remaining against teams with a winning record (the Saints twice and the Buffalo Bills in December). There’s a chance that Brady can somehow get better down the stretch of their season and if he continues like he has he absolutely has to be in the conversation for MVP.

The oldest player to win NFL MVP was Peyton Manning at 37-years-old in 2013. Would it shock you to see Brady beat Peyton one last time to break a record?

Matthew Stafford +1400

The Los Angeles Rams are 5-1 and have a chance to improve to 6-1 as Matthew Stafford goes against his old team this week. He’s been unbelievable in his first six games as he leads the league in QBR at 75.0, is third in touchdowns, fourth in yards, and second in yards per attempt.

The Sean McVay effect has impacted him dramatically to start his season. Comparatively to Tom Brady and Bucs, the Rams schedule is much more difficult but this offense has shown no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

They’re sixth in points four and eighth in terms of yards and are top five in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. If you’re looking for value plays outside some of the top favorites, this is a good value play.

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