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NFL MVP Race: Is Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Justin Herbert Ahead After Week 1?

Week 1 of the NFL season came to a close last night. When looking at the NFL MVP race, is it Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Justin Herbert that leads the pack? Jason Radowitz dives into the NFL MVP odds.
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NFL MVP Race: Is Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Justin Herbert Ahead After Week 1?

The NFL MVP race is usually a race for the best quarterback player. The last time a non-quarterback won the MVP was Adrian Peterson back in 2012.

Therefore, the MVP race will mostly be a quarterback battle between the best quarterbacks in the league.

The three quarterbacks who impressed the most in Week 1 were Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chargers, and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Below we'll discuss if any of those quarterbacks are a good bet to win the award going into Week 2 of the NFL season.

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Josh Allen +500 (Bet $100 to win $500)

Josh Allen is the clear favorite after Week 1. He also has been given the highest probability of winning the award at +500.

Allen went to Los Angeles and defeated the defending Super Bowl Champs, 31-10, with 297 yards passing and three touchdowns in the air. He also had another touchdown rushing the football and surpassed 50 yards rushing in the game.

Allen has the best targets of the three quarterbacks we'll talk about. He found Stefon Diggs eight times for 122 yards. Meanwhile, Gabe Davis is expected to have a breakout season along with Isaiah McKenzie. Dawson Knox will eventually get involved more, and I'm sure Allen will love having Jamison Crowder in the slot.

The pass protection could be better for Allen, but the breakdowns just allow Allen to showcase his ability to make plays out of the pocket. That probably helps his reputation as a quarterback.

Patrick Mahomes +750 (Bet $100 to win $750)

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will likely be in many shootouts this season. Mahomes doesn't have Tyreek Hill anymore but still helped the Chiefs to 44 points against the Cardinals on the road.

Mahomes was 30-for-39 from the field and threw 360 yards and five touchdowns. There were doubters before the season. They didn't think Mahomes would be the same without Hill.

But that was far from the truth. He found Travis Kelce eight times for 121 yards. He also involved JuJu Smith-Schuster, who caught six catches for 79 yards.

Even Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught four passes. And don't forget about Mecole Herdman and Skyy Moore, both speedy and versatile receivers.

If Mahomes scores five touchdowns per game in the air, he'll move past Josh Allen. But for now, Allen can do more with his feet.

Justin Herbert +750 (Bet $100 to win $750)

Justin Herbert has the same odds as Patrick Mahomes after Week 1. He'll want to separate himself from Mahomes on Thursday Night Football.

Herbert went 26-for-34 and threw three touchdown passes against the Raiders in Week 1. However, Herbert lost Keenan Allen to a hamstring injury and rarely got Austin Ekeler involved in the passing game.

It's not unclear if Allen will return for the Chargers in Week 2. If Herbert is without a weapon like Allen, it will be hard to increase his stats. However, if Herbert and the Chargers stun the Chiefs on Thursday Night, Herbert will leap past Mahomes in the MVP race. This will happen, especially if Allen isn't available. If Herbert can help the Chargers rally past the Chiefs without his top playmaker, that would give him the edge over Mahomes early on. Still, Josh Allen leads the MVP race after Week 1.


PlayerOddsImplied Chance
Josh Allen+40020%
Patrick Mahomes+60014.29%
Justin Herbert+75011.76%
Tom Brady+85010.53%
Aaron Rodgers+15006.25%
Joe Burrow+15006.25%
Jalen Hurts+18005.26%
Lamar Jackson+18005.26%

Click here for NFL MVP Odds

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.


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