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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Week 5 Power Rankings

Five weeks into the 2022 NFL season and MVP odds are already shifting and bouncing around. Which players have improved their outlook and which ones have seen their MVP stock reduced?
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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Week 5 Power Rankings

Josh Allen has retained a firm grip at the top of the leaderboard for the 2022 NFL MVP race. The fifth-year quarterback has developed and honed his skillset since being drafted to Buffalo as a top-ten pick back in 2018. He's thrown 36 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons and is fresh off of a monstrous outing against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5, where Allen finished with over 400 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Plenty of other players are keeping themselves in the MVP race through five weeks. Quarterbacks all comprise the current top ten, with a few new names making their way onto the leaderboard through a quarter of the 2022 NFL season. Plenty of surprises and miraculous performances are on their way in the coming weeks.

Here we rank his top ten MVP candidates and will explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds.

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2022 NFL MVP Odds

OddsPlayerStock WatchImplied Chance
+200Josh AllenUp33.33%
+500Patrick MahomesNeutral16.67%
+600Jalen HurtsUp14.29%
+600Lamar JacksonUp14.29%
+1400Justin HerbertDown6.67%
+3000Joe BurrowDown3.23%
+3500Aaron RodgersDown2.78%
+4000Kyler MurrayUp2.44%
+4000Tom BradyDown2.44%
+5000Kirk CousinsUp1.96%

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NFL MVP Power Rankings

1. Josh Allen (+200) (Bet $100 to win $200)

There weren't a ton of jaw-dropping moments through Josh Allen's first four games played, but he did manage to orchestrate a clutch win on the road in bad weather against the Baltimore Ravens. Following that clutch performance in Week 4, Allen parlayed his momentum and exploded against a vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary in Week 5, linking up with Gabe Davis for a 98-yard receiving touchdown and another 62-yard touchdown to Davis before halftime even hit. Allen finished with 20 of 31 for 424 passing yards and four touchdowns, adding over 50 yards as a ball carrier. He already has 12 total touchdowns and over 1,200 passing yards, with the only loss coming due to clock management against Miami. Unless he delivers a string of underwhelming outings in the coming weeks, Allen should remain the betting favorite to win the 2022 NFL MVP.

2. Patrick Mahomes (+500) (Bet $100 to win $500)

Kansas City looked a bit flat after a strong showing against Arizona in Week 1, where former 2018 MVP winner Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdowns in a 44-21 rout in the Desert. A bad loss to Indianapolis must've been what Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs needed to return to form, as the franchise quarterback threw three touchdowns with a 62 percent completion rate against the vaunted Tampa Bay defense in Week 4. Right now, Mahomes still has to complete his Week 5 matchup in Arrowhead Stadium against the Las Vegas Raiders, which is a team he's historically dog-walked. Mahomes has won the MVP and Super Bowl, so he knows what it takes to get to football nirvana. A second MVP could wind up happening if Josh Allen slides and Mahomes continues to shred talented defenses.

3. Jalen Hurts (+600) (Bet $100 to win $600)

Philadelphia has adopted a similar style to the offensive scheme used in Baltimore when it comes to winning football games in 2022. Second-year head coach Nick Sirianni uses heavy run-centric concepts and a talented offensive line to generate production on seemingly every snap. The leader at the helm is third-year quarterback, Jalen Hurts, who has carried at least nine times in every single game this season. Hurts scored two rushing touchdowns to give the Eagles its only form of points outside of a couple of field goals against Arizona in Week 5. He is an improved passer, finishing with a 72.2 percent completion rate against the Cardinals and surpassing 300 passing yards in two of his five games. Hurts plays smoothly and seems unphased, which will be important down the stretch in a highly competitive NFC East division.

4. Lamar Jackson (+600) (Bet $100 to win $600)

Lamar Jackson continues to be one of the most electric and explosive players in the NFL. His 2019 MVP season is still etched in our minds and he continues to utilize his quick-twitch ability to evade defenders in tight spaces while making quick decisions and getting the football out to his open receivers. Jackson has recorded over 50 rushing yards in four consecutive performances, but the passing touchdowns have dried up a bit since a four-touchdown burst against New England in Week 3. As long as the Ravens keep finding ways to win close games, Jackson will remain near the top of the NFL MVP discussion. It is important to note that he's thrown four interceptions across his last three games, so Jackson will need to clean up his turnovers.

5. Justin Herbert (+1400) (Bet $100 to win $1400)

Third-year franchise quarterback Justin Herbert has battled adversity early in the 2022 season. He injured his ribs against the Chiefs and lost an ugly game the following week against Jacksonville. Despite the slow start and injury to overcome, Herbert has looked very good in the pocket. He just came away with a massive road win against Cleveland in Week 5, where he only threw for 228 yards and one touchdown. He has only had one game with a quarterback rating (QBR) below 93, which was the ugly loss against the Jaguars in Week 3. Herbert has the arm talent to stay in the MVP race, but his teammates will need to continue playing at a high-caliber level for him to challenge Josh Allen.

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6. Joe Burrow (+3000) (Bet $100 to win $3000)

This is where we start to see the odds tail off. Joe Burrow led the Cincinnati Bengals on a miraculous run to win the AFC in 2021, while nearly pulling off the upset win over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI. Since that occurred, the Bengals' front office spent a lot of money on new contracts for a rebuilt offensive line to support Burrow in 2022. It has not gone according to plan yet. Burrow has been sacked 18 times through five games, while only throwing more than two touchdowns once against the New York Jets. He's mobile in the pocket and can make plays with his legs, but Burrow's arm talent is the reason why he has succeeded. If the Bengals keep losing close games, Burrow's MVP odds will continue to decline.

7. Aaron Rodgers (+3500) (Bet $100 to win $3500)

The Green Bay Packers have not looked like the best version of themselves through the first five weeks of the 2022 NFL season. A lot of this has to do with the loss of Davante Adams this offseason, while the younger wide receiving corps is forced to learn quickly. Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 260 yards in a game this year but he's thrown three interceptions, including only his fourth career pick-six while losing two fumbles. Rodgers struggled against New England's defense in Week 4 before coming away with an overtime win, while the Giants surprised everyone by containing Rodgers' downfield ability. The schedule lightens up a bit in the coming weeks, so perhaps Rodgers will scorch the Jets and Commanders to improve his MVP odds. As of right now, the back-to-back MVP appears to be on his way out from making his third consecutive run at the award.

8. Kyler Murray (+4000) (Bet $100 to win $4000)

Yes, the Arizona Cardinals are 2-3, but their losses have been against Kansas City, Philadelphia, and the Los Angeles Rams. Kyler Murray just inked a lucrative contract extension with the Cardinals this offseason, which was mired in controversy surrounding his commitment to film outside of the facility. His electric scrambling ability remains intact, but so does his big arm, which has gravitated towards his new teammate and former collegiate teammate, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown. Murray has yet to put it all together for four quarters and has been unable to finish any game this season with a QBR above 100. His schedule gets easier against Seattle and Minnesota's defensive units in three of the next four games, so perhaps Murray will pop off like we've seen him do in previous seasons.

9. Tom Brady (+4000) (Bet $100 to win $4000)

The legendary 45-year-old quarterback has won seven Super Bowls with two different teams, so it's never a good idea to count out Tom Brady in an MVP discussion. He's been dealing with off-the-field issues throughout the offseason, which has led to in-season drama, but Brady has played well despite the adversity. This includes numerous wide receivers and offensive linemen dealing with injuries, which limited Brady's arsenal of weapons against Green Bay, resulting in a tough 14-12 loss in Week 3. Since that happened, Brady has thrown for over 350 yards in consecutive games against the Chiefs and Falcons, finally coming away with a win at home in Week 5. As long as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are on the field, Brady has a small chance to win his fourth career MVP.

10. Kirk Cousins (+5000) (Bet $100 to win $5000)

Minnesota is enjoying its new offensive scheme under first-year head coach Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings also roster one of the league's most accurate passers in Kirk Cousins. He has not yet thrown for three passing touchdowns through five games, but Cousins has delivered clutch throws in big moments against the Saints, Bears, and Lions. He blew out the Packers in Week 1 by hyper-targeting star wideout Justin Jefferson, while displaying chemistry and familiarity with his players due to improved offensive playcalling. While Cousins still has under a two percent chance to win the MVP, there are still 13 regular season games left to determine where he winds up. Upcoming matchups against Miami, Arizona, and Washington all provide soft matchups for Cousins to elevate his stock in the

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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.


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