Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 14

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 14

To this point, we've seen the NFC East evolve into a bloodbath of a division. If you ask most people, it's followed by AFC East and AFC West with some due respect for the NFC West at the top. However, it's easy to forget about the AFC North. Although the Browns and Steelers are off the pace of the Ravens and Bengals -- practically playoff shoo-ins at this point -- they are an equal three games back and have different yet improving quarterback situations on their hands.

While the Browns had Deshaun Watson make his team debut, the Steelers had Kenny Pickett make and complete his eighth NFL start. He's been gaining valuable experience that could give Pittsburgh a slim but fighting chance at a playoff spot and an unlikely Super Bowl run.

This past week, the Steelers' second straight win did a lot for those chances. But exactly how much? Let's investigate.

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 14

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Super Bowl Odds Risers

Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds (+350) (Bet $100 to Collect $450) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Over the last few weeks, the Bills and Chiefs have really been jockeying for the top spot in the sportsbooks' ranks. Last week, Kansas City overtook Buffalo for the first time, and here we are but a week later and the Bills are once again the top dog. How did we get here?

On Sunday, the Chiefs lost a nail-biter to the Bengals, putting their record at 9-3 -- the same as that of the Bills. Three days prior, Buffalo took care of business with a 24-10 win over the Patriots. They're now a game clear of Miami in the AFC East and hold the tiebreaker over K.C. for what could be the top seed in the conference playoffs.

Overall, though, it was a very OK performance from the Bills. Their 68.8 grade via Pro Football Focus is their best of the past three weeks but falls massively short of their 81.7 season grade and their high-water mark of 82.8. Defensively, they were at a 62, marking the sixth straight week below a 65 grade. They've still been above average on the offensive side of the ball despite Josh Allen's recent limitations due to his shoulder injury. His on-field play earned him an improved grade on the game before and it represented yet another game for him to get comfortable both physically and mentally.

Through 13 weeks, Allen and the Bills are 10th overall in player grade -- 11th in offense and 15th in defense. Somewhat quietly they have been a bit overhyped for what that tells us.

Still, the oddsmakers caused their implied probability to grow by a league-high 4% week over week. They're now the only team above 20% and are -400 to win the AFC East. They're also +175 to win the conference, which would lead to the AFC playoffs running through Highmark Stadium. Over the last five games, they are in the middle of the pack in the strength of schedule, with home games against the Jets and Dolphins up next.

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Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl Odds (+30000) (Bet $100 to Collect $30,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

It's been one of those scratch-and-claw type of years for the Steelers. They haven't been the most talented, healthy, or even experienced team, but they've fought their way to a 5-7 record after 13 weeks with a rookie quarterback at the helm for the majority of it. Since Pickett took over as the team's starting signal caller, Pittsburgh's gone 4-4 including back-to-back wins going into this week.

In Week 13, Pittsburgh went into Atlanta and emerged with a 19-16 victory. Pickett and the offense didn't light up the scoreboard, but they were efficient enough to get a lead early and allow the defense to command the game from that point on. PFF awarded the offensive unit with a 75.2 grade -- the Steelers' highest since Week 3 against the Browns. The defense received a low grade, stemming primarily from their poor run defense which allowed Atlanta to rush for 146 yards on 28 carries -- in other words 5.2 yards per carry.

That run defense, and in particular the likes of Devin Bush and Myles Jack, has been susceptible to big games all year despite being the 10th-rated unit in that category. Altogether, the defense is 16th even without the T.J. Watt bump to the pass rush for a handful of weeks.

It seems like the balance the team has struck has been just enough for sportsbooks to have at least a little love for. The Steelers have gone from +80000 a week ago to +30000 for a gain of 50000 and an implied probability of 0.3%. Today, they are ahead of 10 other teams and could back their way into a Wild Card spot with either Cincinnati or Baltimore likely to take the division. Pittsburgh draws the 18th-toughest schedule down the stretch, so the door hasn't been shut on them quite yet.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

San Francisco 49ers (+1200) Bet $100 to Collect $1,300 Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

Before Week 13, everything was rose-colored for the 49ers faithful. They played their way up to fourth in Super Bowl odds -- at +650 -- but so much has transpired since then.

On the plus side, San Francisco faced off with former coordinator Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins and took the matchup 33-17 in convincing fashion. In the midst of it, though, they lost starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to what is almost certainly a season-ending foot injury.

Jimmy G had thrown for only 56 yards before exiting, after which rookie Brock Purdy picked things up and did well for himself. The seventh-round pick completed 25 of 37 passes for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns to 1 interception. His debut performance was solid enough for a 61.4 grade overall.

Having passed up on Baker Mayfield in waivers, Purdy's going to be the guy the rest of the way. And although Kyle Shanahan has worked his magic with no-names in the past, this could be a tall task for even him to have San Fran threaten a Super Bowl run in the NFC.

At this point in time, the Niners are -450 to win the NFC West, and their 8-4 record would put them on the three-seed line in the playoffs. That's not a bad spot to be in, but with the other factors in play, they find themselves a distant fifth in Super Bowl odds. Their implied probability is down 7.7% -- nearly cut in half from a week ago. It's going to be tough sledding.

Indianapolis Colts (+100000) Bet $100 to Collect $100,100 Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel

The Jeff Saturday era started well but has since deteriorated quite quickly in Indianapolis. The Colts are losers of three straight, and their most recent loss was much more indicative of the gap between them and true contenders like the Cowboys.

This week, Indy lost by a count of 54-19 on the road in Big D. The once-highly-held Colts offensive line gave up three sacks to Micah Parsons and company, who also picked off Matt Ryan on three different occasions. When all was said and done, the offense ended the day with a 64.4 grade mitigated in part by their efficiency in the run game.

The Colts defense played well and was the key contributor to an overall grade above 71 for a second straight week. Nevertheless, the pass rush hasn't been there to make up for great coverage on the back end. That allowed the Dallas run game to then exploit the porous run defense and total 220 yards and 4 scores on the ground. Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott ran all over them.

Under Saturday, Indy has been very average, and that's an improvement over what they were. The thing is, they've needed to be better than that to make up for their bad start and it just hasn't been there. The Colts were at +30000 a week ago, but they're now tied for the longest odds of any team not already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (the Bears and Texans). At this point, it wouldn't be surprising for them to eye up and ensure a top-10 draft position even if they have the second-easiest schedule over the final weeks.