2022 NFL Playoff Picture: Ranking the Most Likely NFL Playoff Teams

2022 NFL Playoff Picture: Ranking the Most Likely NFL Playoff Teams

With just four weeks left in the NFL regular season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. But there is still plenty of positioning left to be decided, with only one team having clinched a playoff spot. Who is most likely to make the playoffs this season? Let's rank the most likely NFL playoff teams.

Ranking the Most Likely NFL Playoff Teams

Tier 1: Stone Cold Locks

1. Philadelphia Eagles

The 12-1 Eagles are the only team to have a playoff berth clinched with four weeks left to play. They have been so dominant in the NFC this year that they could lose each of their last four games and still be guaranteed a better record than 12 of the 16 teams in the conference.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is at 10-3 with four games left, which put them three full games ahead of the second-place LA Chargers and each of the AFC teams currently jockeying for position in the Wild Card slots. The Chiefs also hold the tiebreaker advantage against the Chargers, so it's essentially a four-game lead with four to play.

3. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a slightly harder road ahead than the Chiefs, as the 8-5 Dolphins are only two games back of the 10-3 Bills. The remaining schedule for Buffalo is also slightly more challenging (Dolphins, Bears, Bengals, Patriots). If the Bills beat Miami at home this week, they should lock up the division. They are also the current Super Bowl favorites.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Despite the recent surge by Detroit and Minnesota's loss to the Lions last week, the Vikings are still four games up on the Lions with four games to play. With games left against the Colts, Packers, and Bears, the Vikings will win at least one of those, which would lock in a division title.

5. Dallas Cowboys

Even though the Cowboys only have an outside shot at winning the division over the Eagles, at 10-3, they are still three games ahead of the other NFC Wild Card teams and Wild Card hopefuls. All eyes will be on the Cowboys-Eagles game next week; that could either give the Eagles the title or give Dallas a very realistic shot at stealing it.

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Tier 2: Only an Epic Collapse Keeps Them Out

6. San Francisco 49ers

With their eyes on going up three games in the division and holding the tie-breaker against Seattle, the 49ers have plenty of extra incentive to win tonight's game which would essentially give them the division. So even though it is likely that the 49ers to enough to pull out the division title, they are down to their third-string quarterback (Brock Purdy), and he is Questionable going into the Thursday night game.

7. Baltimore Ravens

The good news for the Ravens is that the Steelers and Browns have only five wins (Baltimore has nine) and have no shot at taking the division. But that's where the good news stops. Their top quarterback (Lamar Jackson) won't be back until Christmas Eve, Cincinnati (also 9-4) is rolling right now, and there are four other AFC teams with seven or eight wins ready to pounce if Baltimore should slip. The Ravens have a very favorable schedule for the next three weeks (Steelers, Falcons, and Browns), which could set up a winner-take-all game with Cincinnati in Week 18. But the loser of that game still likely has a Wild Card spot waiting.

8. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have a much tougher schedule ahead than the Ravens (Buccaneers, Patriots, Bills, Ravens), so the divisional road seems a long shot for them. Baltimore also owns the tie-breaker against Cincinnati, so the Bengals would need to enter Week 18 with their records tied and then get an outright win to take the division title. What is presently working for the Bengals is that the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets all likely beat up on each other over the next four weeks.

Tier 3: Likely to Make It, but Lucky to Make It

9. Tennessee Titans

The Jacksonville Jaguars made a statement with their win against Tennessee in Week 14, but with a two-game lead and still another head-to-head matchup to come, this looks like Tennessee should be able to pull it out. But before they can play Jacksonville again, they must cross paths with the Chargers and Cowboys. There is a real possibility the Jaguars sneak in and take this, but time is running out.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The playoff team in the most precarious situation with four games left is the only one with a losing record (6-7), and the team playing truly awful football right now. Tampa Bay is only one game ahead of the Carolina Panthers as we enter Week 15. However, I find it hard to bet against Tom Brady getting this thing done, especially when Tampa and Carolina still play again in Week 17 in a game likely to decide the division. The loser of that game will not be getting a Wild Card spot, so Tom Brady at home is a good spot to place some bets.

Tier 4: Buy Your Plane Tickets, but Get Refundable Tickets

11. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins (8-5) currently own the tie-breaker against the Patriots (7-6) but do not have one against the Jets (7-6), so they will need every one of their eight wins so far as Miami looks to hold off both teams for a Wild Card. While Miami holds the current advantage and has the better offensive game plan, losing to either New England in Week 17 or the New York Jets in Week 18 could potentially bump them out. With games before those against Buffalo and Green Bay, it's no lock the Dolphins make it.

12. Washington Commanders

If only the Commanders had not tied the Giants in Week 14, they would be firmly up in Tier 2, but now they must fight to hang on as they fend off a plethora of NFC challengers for a Wild Card spot. The Commanders do, in many ways, control their own destiny. They play the Giants again this week, and a loss by New York in that one would probably knock them out of playoff contention. After that, they have winnable games against the Browns and the Cowboys in Week 18, who will likely be resting everyone for their first-round matchup.

13. Los Angeles Chargers

While the Chargers currently sit eighth in the AFC, behind the 7-6 New England Patriots, they have a much easier schedule ahead as all of their difficult games are behind them. On the docket for LA, only the Titans, Colts, Rams, and Broncos are left on the schedule. This team is finally fully healthy, and Justin Herbert has recently stepped up his game. Even though they don't currently sit in a playoff spot, I have confidence they get in at the end.

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Tier 5: They Need Some Help to Get In

14. New England Patriots

Even though they currently hold the tie-breaker over the Chargers and the Jets, the Patriots have brutal games left against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills to close the season. Both of their top running backs are currently hurt, and several wide receivers are also banged up. They better get healthy in a hurry if they want to hold on to the seventh seed in the AFC. Several teams are coming for them, and staying in that slot will be an uphill battle.

15. Detroit Lions

After defeating division-leading Minnesota last week, the Lions (6-7) are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and are streaking toward gaining one of the last playoff spots. Like the Chargers, all the Lions' toughest games are behind them. They have the Jets, Panthers, Bears, and Packers left. The Packers (5-8) are likely eliminated before Week 18, so the Lions may not even see Aaron Rodgers suit up in that game. This would be a tremendous story for the formerly 1-6 Lions to get in, and they have a real shot as we enter Week 15.

16. New York Giants

The Giants may sit today with a 7-5-1 record, but they have one huge flaw on their resume. They have not won a single divisional game this season. That's troublesome, considering they have games left against the Commanders and Eagles (both on the road), plus a game left against the Vikings in Week 16, where they could be playing to clinch their division. It's been a nice run for the Giants under new leadership this year, but I would probably put my money on the Lions or Seahawks to make the postseason before I did the Giants.

17. Seattle Seahawks

Much of Seattle's fate hinges on tonight's game at home against the San Francisco 49ers. With just a 7-6 record (one of five NFC teams with six or seven wins), a loss tonight would essentially eliminate them from the division and put them behind Dallas and both the winner and loser of the Washington-New York game (because of their tie). If Detroit beats the Jets, then the Seahawks slip to ninth with three weeks left, and it would be a steep uphill climb to the postseason. If Seattle wins tonight, they shoot way up this list.