2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Which Team Will Trade for the First Overall Pick?

With the 2022-2023 NFL season all wrapped up, there is a ton of excitement and anticipation for the 2023 NFL Draft. Which team will trade for the first overall pick? Abby Moeckler is here to break it down.
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2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Which Team Will Trade for the First Overall Pick?

The 2022-2023 NFL season was filled with ups and downs. Some teams surprised us in ways we'd never expect to see. After a year of insane touchdowns, huge sacks, nail-biting turnovers, and much more, we're looking forward to the 2023 season starting.

But first, the NFL Draft. The Chicago Bears currently hold the No. 1 Draft Pick. Which team will trade them for it? Let's take a look at the 2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick odds.

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2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds

The 2023 NFL Draft will feature some pretty impressive names. After the NFL combine, we should have even more clarity about the draft order. With Bryce Young being the big-ticket name teams will be going after, it's likely the Bears will be willing to trade with another team. Having star QB Justin Fields on their roster, it doesn't make much sense for them to draft Young.

With that being said, which team is in need of a new quarterback? A handful of teams are.

The Houston Texans are the books' current favorites to trade for the first overall pick. With +240 odds, the Texans are given a 29.4% implied chance of landing the Alabama signal-caller. Houston was over the place last year under center and had the opportunity to have the first overall pick. However, they defeated the Indianapolis Colts 32-31 in Week 18 and lost that chance.

While the Bears could benefit from other star players from the 2023 NFL Draft, such as Will Anderson Jr. or Jalen Carter, or they could choose to trade away their first pick in exchange for numerous picks.

After trading away Deshaun Watson, the Texans are in desperate need of a quarterback.

The Colts are the next favorites to trade for the first overall pick, shortly behind the Texans with +275 odds. Like Houston, Indianapolis is also in need of a quarterback. Colts' owner Jim Irsay even mentioned in Shane Steichen’s press conference that he was interested in Young. Indy's run game is stellar, led by Jonathan Taylor, but the Colts need a consistent signal-caller to take them to the next level.

Las Vegas is the next realistic team it seems to trade for the No. 1 pick. There is a common theme amongst these teams that are favored - they all are in need of a quarterback. Bryce Young is the overwhelming first-pick option. Now that Derek Carr has left Vegas, the Raiders need a new center to connect with Davantae Adams. What would it take to trade for Chicago? A lot. While the Bears could end up trading Fields away in exchange for picks and could use the first overall on Young, why would they? Justin Fields is arguably one of the strongest quarterbacks in the league right now. At +400 odds, Vegas is another tempting option.

The Panthers, Falcons, Jets, Commanders, and Bucs all follow next for teams that could trade for the first overall pick. These teams are all searching for a quarterback. Desmond Ridder is not the future for Atlanta, just as Sam Darnold is not for Carolina. New York, Washington, and Tampa Bay are less likely to land this trade, according to the books.

2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds

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A Sports Writer and Editor for OddsChecker, Abby Moeckler has been covering professional sports since 2020. Abby is passionate about analyzing sports statistics, specifically for the NFL. When she’s not crafting stories and editing content, you can find her cheering on the Packers every Sunday.

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