2023 NFL MVP Race: Lamar Jackson Sits Atop NFL MVP Race Heading Into Week 17
Lamar Jackson now sits atop the NFL MVP race heading into Week 17. Brock Purdy falls and familiar favorites join the race. Matt MacKay provides the latest 2023 NFL MVP odds.
Matt MacKay - December 26, 2023, 11:30 AM EST
7 min2023 NFL MVP Race: Lamar Jackson Sits Atop NFL MVP Race Heading Into Week 17
The highly anticipated Christmas Day prime time matchup between two top-tier opponents, Baltimore and San Francisco, reset the NFL MVP odds market after the Ravens dismantled the 49ers 33-19 on the road. Lamar Jackson now occupies the top spot in the NFL MVP odds race, going from +500 a week ago, to -170 on Tuesday morning.
Purdy has slid down to +1300, joining Josh Allen with under an eight percent chance of winning the 2023-24 NFL MVP award. Replacing Purdy is 49ers' star running back Christian McCaffrey, who moved from +1600 to +450 despite the loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football. McCaffrey logged over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown, notching his 21st touchdown of the season and nearing 2,000 total scrimmage yards entering a plus-matchup against Washington in Week 17.
Behind Jackson and McCaffrey, Tua Tagovailoa sits alone at +1000. Miami's key win finally arrived in Week 16, with a 22-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys, as Tagovailoa threw for 293 yards and a touchdown to improve the Dolphins to 11-4, locking up a playoff berth as the 2 seed in the AFC. A road trip to Baltimore awaits in Week 17, where Tagovailoa could challenge Jackson depending on the outcome of another pivotal matchup in the AFC.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills extended their winning streak against the Los Angeles Chargers, however, it took all 60 minutes to come away with a win on the road. Allen only attempted 21 passes and logged 15-237-1 through the air, along with an interception and two rushing touchdowns on five carries. His mobility and usage as a ball carrier has been emphasized by new OC Joe Brady, but the Bills' ugly win dropped Allen from +800 to +1300 odds.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest strategy on wagering the NFL MVP betting markets as we approach Week 17, with 24 teams still in contention for a playoff berth.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Player | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
Lamar Jackson | -170 | 62.9% |
Christian McCaffrey | +450 | 18.18% |
Tua Tagovailoa | +1000 | 9.09% |
Josh Allen | +1300 | 7.14% |
Brock Purdy | +1300 | 7.14% |
NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 17
LAMAR JACKSON (-170) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Jackson
Lamar Jackson's surge to the top of the NFL MVP odds can be attributed to Baltimore's current five-game winning streak. Jackson's numbers aren't prolific, as he hasn't even scored a rushing touchdown since Week 7, but the Ravens are winning and their franchise quarterback is a big reason for their success.
Jackson's mobility buys time outside of the pocket, evading pressure and challenging defenses about containing his explosive rushing ability, which allows Ravens wideouts to get open downfield. Jackson is fresh off of completing 65 percent of his pass attempts for two touchdowns and 250 yards, so if he beats Miami in Week 17, he'll have his second MVP trophy locked up.
-170 odds is not very lucrative, however, Jackson is in a good spot as the best quarterback in the league, since this is nearly always a quarterback award. He is still worth wagering, although it's risky since he'll drop out of contention with a loss to Miami in Week 17, so tread cautiously with any new investments.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (+450) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for McCaffrey
We may wind up seeing a non-quarterback win the NFL MVP for the first time in over a decade, when Adrian Peterson won in 2012 with the Minnesota Vikings. Christian McCaffrey is undoubtedly one of the most valuable players in the league, especially in Kyle Shanahan's West Coast offensive scheme, creating lots of touches in space for the hard-nosed dual-threat running back to exploit.
The 49ers losing with four interceptions form Brock Purdy against Baltimore has propelled McCaffrey into second-place in the NFL MVP odds race. As long as San Francisco doesn't lose to Washington or the Rams to close out their season, plus if Baltimore loses to Miami in Week 17, McCaffrey could wind up winning this award. Moving from +1600 to +450 in a week is some serious steam, so hop on McCaffrey's current NFL MVP odds ahead of a soft matchup against the Commanders.
Understand, this investment is predicated on Jackson and the Ravens losing to Miami in Week 17, or dropping another game against the Steelers, who Jackson historically struggles against, during Week 18.
TUA TAGOVAILOA (+1000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Tua
Bettors can invest on Tua Tagovailoa's NFL MVP odds at +1000 right now following Miami's win over Dallas in Week 16. The Dolphins finally silenced their critics with a big win over a top-tier opponent, with Tagovailoa doing his part, throwing for over 290 yards and a touchdown in a 22-20 win. He also avoided committing any interceptions, his fourth consecutive game without a miscue through the air.
Tagovailoa's a long shot to win NFL MVP right now, however, if he goes out and throws for 300 and two touchdowns in a road win over Baltimore next week, he's going to surge into a two-way tie with Christian McCaffrey at the top of the NFL MVP race. After speculating Tyreek Hill would win NFL MVP a couple of weeks ago, the award now belongs exclusively to Tagovailoa if the Dolphins win out against the Ravens and Bills. Wager accordingly.
JOSH ALLEN (+1300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Allen
Josh Allen is still alive in the NFL MVP race, although he went backwards despite adding another win for the Bills' playoff chances. Buffalo fell into an early 10-0 deficit against the Chargers before mounting a late comeback, as Allen accounted for three total touchdowns, including two as a ball carrier.
Buffalo already lost once to New England, their Week 17 opponent, then they'll play Miami in Week 18. If Allen can continue logging two to three touchdowns per game, with wins in both contests, there's an outside chance he'll slide into the NFL MVP top spot. This depends on whether or not Jackson and McCaffrey both struggle down the stretch, so don't wager too much on Allen, despite the enticing +1300 odds
BROCK PURDY (+1300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best MVP odds for Purdy
Brock Purdy's implosion at home in prime time in the biggest game of the season has all but certainly removed him from the NFL MVP race. It will take a herculean effort for Purdy to get back into contention, but he gets a nice bounce-back spot against Washington in Week 17.
McCaffrey will need to be in a diminished role, with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all going off due to Purdy's passing. Lamar Jackson will also need to lose to Miami or Pittsburgh, Tua Tagovailoa will need to lose to Baltimore or Buffalo, and Josh Allen will need to lose against the Patriots or Bills.
With so many overlapping matchups with MVP candidates favored ahead of Purdy, don't wager on Purdy's current +1300 NFL MVP odds, as his woeful performance against Baltimore, winding up with zero touchdowns and four interceptions, has dropped him from regaining a foothold for the remainder of the season.
NFL Odds
