NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Can Anyone Stop Caleb Williams from Going No. 1?
The 2024 NFL Draft is looming as the college season comes to a close. The final week of the NFL regular season will determine the draft position for many desperate franchises, but who will they take first overall? Let's take a look at the latest 2024 NFL Draft first pick odds and see if Caleb Williams is going off the board.
Peter Alexis - January 3, 2024, 12:15 PM EST
5 minNFL Draft First Pick Odds: Can Anyone Stop Caleb Williams from Going No. 1?
Week 18 of the NFL season is here to wrap up the regular season, and for many teams eliminated from playoff contention, the show is not quite over. Several struggling teams are jockeying for position in April's NFL Draft, and this final game could mean the difference between landing their guy or getting stuck behind their rival.
Every year there is a top talent that many of these hapless franchises are vying for, and this year is no exception. The Caleb Williams sweepstakes have been underway for months, and everyone believes it is the battle for the second pick.
But the odds don't have it as locked up as it may seem, and recent momentum has come in backing the challengers to potentially steal the pick at plus money. Let's take a look at the updated odds for the NFL Draft first overall pick as these teams battle for draft position in Week 18.
NFL First Pick Odds
Player | Odds | Implied Probabilty |
|---|---|---|
Caleb Williams | -450 | 81.8% |
Drake Maye | +550 | 15.4% |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | +1600 | 5.9% |
Jayden Daniels | +3500 | 2.8% |
Michael Penix Jr. | +6000 | 1.6% |
Caleb Williams leads the pack at -450 odds, but has been shifting on many books. He was -600 or more at one point, but still has an over 80% chance to go first overall. It isn't a for sure,
It is important to note that we have seen rapid movements on these lines in recent years, and are rapidly changing throughout the offseason. A favorite can have their odds slashed from a news cycle, or a rising contender can come out of nowhere after a good workout and a trade rumor. Will Caleb Williams remain the favorite throughout? Let's explore the process and latest first pick odds.
Who Will Be Drafted No. 1 in the NFL Draft?
Caleb Williams (-450) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
Caleb Williams has been hailed as a generational talent throughout his time in college. He first starred at Oklahoma, before following head coach Lincoln Riley to USC. His star reached another level in his first year in Los Angeles, leading the Trojans to a Cotton Bowl appearance and more importantly winning the Heisman trophy.
In just three years of college, he has passed for over 10,000 yards and thrown 93 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions. He played on teams with notoriously bad defenses, or we would have seen him guide his programs to the College Football Playoff.
Williams has led the field throughout the season, and is still holding strong at -450 odds. As previously mentioned, he has an 81.8% chance to end up first in the latest update. His pro day and the NFL combine may have an impact on these odds, and the rumor mill will be swirling from now until April. Keep an eye on news around the Bears as they decide if they want to keep Justin Fields or move on to Williams.
Drake Maye (+550) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
The North Carolina quarterback is the main challenger to Caleb Williams for the top spot. The vast majority of mock drafts have him going as the second pick, but the odds have fallen in recent days.
Maye originally opened with these high odds of +550 where he still stands at Bet365, but has fallen to +300 on several other books. He may be receiving some steam as the consensus alternative to Williams, and is certainly going to put up a fight in the race for the top spot.
Maye was a Heisman contender earlier in the season, and threw for over 3,600 yards in 2023. He didn't explode as much as his previous season, when he threw for 4,300 yards and an incredible 38 touchdowns, 14 more than this year. Despite the slight drop off, scouts remain impressed with his NFL build and talent,
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+1600) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
The top receiver in the nation is the only non-quarterback in contention for the first round pick. Harrison Jr. is one of the highest-rated WR prospects in recent memory, and has a lot to live up to. His Hall of Fame father, Marvin Harrison, starred for the Colts for 13 years alongside Peyton Manning.
If Harrison Jr. finds a way to land as the first overall pick by trade or otherwise, he will be the first wideout taken in that spot since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996 out of USC. Calvin Johnson went second overall in 2004, and Harrison Jr. has been rated equally high, if not higher. His speed and hands have been praised by many analysts, and there is no ceiling on his ability to be a star in the league.
Harrison's best odds are +1600 on DraftKings, but he has fallen to +1000 or lower on several other sportsbooks. Keep an eye on him as a dark horse to enter the conversation late if a team trades back, or if the Bears decide to pair him with Justin Fields. He currently has a 5.9% chance to go first overall in the latest odds, and could potentially climb higher as the offseason goes on.
Jayden Daniels (+3500) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
Jayden Daniels increased his stock dramatically down the stretch of the 2023 season, where he went on a tear and ultimately took home the Heisman trophy. He played championship-caliber football for the entire season, and would be still going in the playoff if his team had any semblance of a defense.
He accounted for 50 total touchdowns to lead all NCAA quarterbacks, with 40 coming through the air and another 10 on the ground. He currently has +3500 odds on the best offer from FanDuel Sportsbook, but has already crashed down to +1000 on two other major sportsbooks due to recent momentum.
Daniels is projected as a top-five pick even if he doesn't go first overall, and his explosive athletic ability has him compared to Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. He is certainly climbing up draft boards, and some insiders and scouts believe he could pass Drake Maye on the big board when all is said and done.
NFL Odds
