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NFL Draft Odds: Which team will Draft Michael Penix Jr?

Michael Penix Jr. made headlines while at Washington this year. So which team could land this exceptional talent? Read on to find out.
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Which team will Draft Michael Penix Jr?

Team Odds Implied Probability 
Seattle Seahawks +400 20% 
Minnesota Vikings +450 18.2% 
Atlanta Falcons +450 18.2% 
Las Vegas Raiders +550 15.4% 
Denver Broncos +900 10% 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1600 5.9% 
New England Patriots +1600 5.9% 
Pittsburgh Steelers +1600 5.9% 
New Orleans Saints +2500 3.8% 
New York Giants +2900 3.3%

The Seattle Seahawks are currently the betting favorites to draft Michael Penix Jr. at +400 odds, giving them a 20% implied probability. The Vikings and Falcons are next, both sitting at +450 odds for an 18.2% chance of selecting the quarterback. While teams like the Patriots, Steelers and Giants round out the top ten, their odds of landing Penix Jr. look fairly long at this point. 

Will The Seahawks draft Penix Jr?

The odds of the Seattle Seahawks selecting former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft seem reasonably strong. At +400 odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Seahawks have the best chances. Seattle's Lumen Field and Washington's Husky Stadium are just five miles apart, so Penix would not have to travel far. The Seahawks also have coach Mike Macdonald taking over in 2024, so he could be intrigued to bring in the accurate lefty passer. And with veteran Geno Smith turning 34 next season, Seattle needs to consider the future at quarterback. Penix could be an ideal schematic fit and his college resume with dynamic playmakers mirrors the Seahawks' offensive personnel. At +400 odds, there’s a 20% chance that Penix hears his name called by Seattle come April. 

Will The Vikings draft Penix Jr? 

The Minnesota Vikings also have decent odds to select Michael Penix Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft at +450 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. With veteran Kirk Cousins coming off a major Achilles injury, his future is uncertain in Minnesota. If the Vikings decide to move on from Cousins, they could eye Penix with the 11th overall pick as his replacement. Penix's accuracy and ability to thrive with explosive playmakers would fit well in Minnesota's offense centered around Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. And with head coach Kevin O'Connell being a former quarterback, he could see traits in Penix that appeal to him. The Vikings offer familiar surroundings for Penix as well, allowing him to stay in purple while leading a talented offensive core. Minnesota presents a viable landing spot for the quarterback, and odds of +450 reflect this.

Will the Falcons Draft Penix Jr? 

With new head coach Raheem Morris taking over in Atlanta, the Falcons seem poised to head in a different direction at quarterback after the play of Desmond Ridder last season. This makes Michael Penix Jr. a very realistic option for the Falcons with the 8th overall pick and their +450 odds to draft him. Penix's accuracy and passing volume in college would fit well helping to maximize Atlanta's young offensive weapons like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. And if the top quarterbacks are already off the board by pick 8, Penix makes even more sense for a Falcons team looking to inject new life into the offense. His experience and comfort leading dynamic receiving groups gives confidence he could step in and quickly build rapport in Atlanta. With second the best odds to land Penix, the Falcons have a strong chance to make him their next franchise QB. 

Odds on Penix Jr being number one pick

Player Odds Implied Probability 
Caleb Williams -1200 92.3% 
Drake Maye +450 18.2% 
Jayden Daniels +700 12.5% 
J.J. McCarthy +10000 1% 
Michael Penix Jr. +15000 0.7% 
Bo Nix +25000 0.4% 
Joe Milton +25000 0.4%

Based on the latest odds, Michael Penix Jr. has very slim chances of being the first quarterback picked in the 2024 NFL Draft. At +15000 odds, which translates to just a 0.7% implied probability, Penix Jr. is a major long shot to go first among signal-callers. The odds heavily favor USC's Caleb Williams, who holds a massive 92.3% probability of being the number one quarterback off the board. 



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