NFL Playoff Picture Week 18: Updated Scenarios, Brackets, and Key Matchups

We have arrived to the final weekend of the NFL regular season, and the playoff picture is almost in full form. There are a couple divisional seedings that could be rearranged, as well as one final AFC wild card spot that three teams are fighting for.

With two AFC North matchups on Saturday evening to set the stage, we'll have a lot of answers about the playoff scenarios entering Sunday's games. Let's take a look at the full slate and the latest odds for NFL Week 18 to see who's making it into the playoffs, and where they might play in the wild card round.

Click here for the latest NFL Week 18 Odds

NFL Playoff Picture: Current Projections

AFC Matchups

No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs: Bye No. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 7 Denver Broncos No. 3 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers No. 4 Houston Texans vs. No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Matchups

No. 1 Detroit Lions: Bye No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers No. 3 Los Angeles Rams vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. No. 5 Minnesota Vikings

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 18 Odds

AFC North Odds: Ravens, Steelers Playoff Seeding

The Pittsburgh Steelers will meet the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday night, and they will already know the results of the Browns vs. Ravens game. These odds were pretty split a few weeks ago, with the Steelers actually at a slight -140 favorite to win the division.

Everything has changed since then, with the Ravens smoking the Steelers outright in Week 16, and Pittsburgh proceeding to lose to the Chiefs on Christmas day, losing their tiebreaker. Now, the Ravens are -20000 favorites and the Steelers have +2500 odds to win the division, which would entail the Ravens suffering a shocking defeat to the Browns as the biggest favorite of the NFL season. It's not happening, but the odds still exist.

Even if it did, the Steelers would still have to pull the slight home upset against a red-hot Bengals team tonight. With all of those factors at play, the Ravens have a 99.5% chance to win the division and the No. 3 seed in the AFC.

However, the Steelers game doesn't become meaningless tonight for a few reasons. Firstly, they would like to get their mojo back after suffering three-straight losses before arriving to the playoffs. Sure, they played three of the top-five teams in the league, but you can't arrive to the AFC wild card on a skid.

Secondly, the Mike Tomlin's crew can eliminate their AFC North foe from the playoffs, who nobody wants to play right now. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are on fire, and the offense can hang with anyone in the field on a good day.

Lastly and most importantly, Pittsburgh is playing for seeding here. With a win, they will take on the Houston Texans next week, and with a loss, they will be dropped to the sixth seed and have to visit the Ravens in Baltimore again. Based on Week 16, they don't want to head back down to M&T Bank Stadium right now if they can avoid it.

Keep an eye on the results of these two AFC North clashes on Saturday as they will seriously shape the matchups for the first round of the NFL playoffs.

AFC Wild Card Odds: Can the Bengals Still Make the Playoffs?

As we just touched on above, the Bengals are technically still alive in the NFL Playoff race after an atrocious start to the season. They've made it back to 8-8 after a 1-4 start, and have displayed some of the greatest offensive prowess in the league. The common refrain is that Joe Burrow would be cashing in as NFL MVP if the defense could have gotten a few more stops in close games.

But you can't change the past, and the Bengals are most likely going to be on the outside looking in this year. They have +1500 odds to make the playoffs, and need a string of scenarios to happen for them to sneak in. First, they have to defeat the Steelers tonight as -140 favorites on the road.

Then, add on a Miami Dolphins loss against the Jets, where they are the slightest +100 underdogs on the road. As bad as the Jets have been, Miami is likely to be without Tua Tagovailoa under center once again, leaving Tyler Huntley to try and get the job done at Metlife Stadium. He was serviceable last week against the Browns, but is obviously a downgrade from Tua. The Dolphins have shorter +680 odds to make the playoffs.

What it all comes down to for both of those teams is a Denver Broncos loss. Bo Nix and the Broncos are in the lead for this final AFC wild card spot, and have the easiest path to get it done. Despite losing their last two games, they just need to defeat the Chiefs in Week 18. While that may sound daunting in other circumstances, the Chiefs will be resting many starters, including Patrick Mahomes. Carson Wentz will lead the charge on the road at Mile High Stadium, and is a 10-point underdog against Denver.

To sum it all up, the Broncos still maintain -700 odds to get that seventh spot, an 87 percent chance. The Dolphins have about a 12% chance at +680, and the Bengals are way back at just a six percent shot. A lot would need to go right for the Bengals to slide in here, but crazier things have happened. Watch out for these three games this weekend to complete the AFC playoff picture.

NFC South Odds: Buccaneers, Falcons Playoff Chances

Last but not least, the final part of the playoff scenarios comes down to the NFC South, one of the most mediocre divisions in football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold a slim lead over the Atlanta Falcons in the race, after Atlanta came up just a few yards short against the Commanders on Sunday Night Football.

That last loss took Atlanta out of the drivers seat, and made the Bucs massive favorites heading into Week 18. The Bucs are -1300 favorites to win the NFC South, because all they have to do now is take down the lowly New Orleans Saints as two-touchdown favorites.

Even if they don't, the Falcons could still lose their finale to the Panthers. Either result sends Baker Mayfield and the Bucs back to the playoff as the four seed in the NFC. At the end of the day, the Falcons only have an 11% chance to make it with their +800 odds, and will essentially need a miracle to get in.