NFL Week 18 Player Props: Best Contract Incentive Bets, Player Milestones in Regular Season Finale

Everyone knows and talks about these contract incentive bets, which means the sportsbooks are locked in on them as well. They often limit the ability to load up on these, or inflate the lines like Mike Evans after receiving heavy action. You will have to get creative if you're looking for the most accurate way to attack these bets.

If a player only needs 185 passing yards like the Geno Smith prop we will discuss, but the line is at 243, so it may not be the best choice to take the offered yards at a much higher number. Also, make sure to keep in mind that some of these teams and players have no playoff hopes or are tanking for draft picks, so they could easily get benched at any point in Week 18. Try to focus on players that matter like Courtland Sutton, as the Broncos fight for the final wild card spot later this afternoon.

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NFL Week 18 Contract Incentive Bets

Mike Evans Receiving Yards + Receptions

Evans will be gathering a load of targets on Sunday afternoon as the Bucs try to solidify their playoff spot against the Saints. Mike Evans is going for his 11th-straight 1,000-yard season, looking to tie Jerry Rice's record. He has never not eclipsed 1,000 yards since entering the league in 2014.

Evans will also get paid if he hits this record, as 85 receiving yards and five receptions will get him a massive $3,000,000 bonus. The sportsbooks know this, and jacked his receiving total all the way up over 100 yards after starting in the 80's earlier in the week. If you are trying to cash in on Evans, some combination of his alternate 80+ yards and the Bucs to win over the Saints should create better odds.

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton has quickly cemented himself as the top target of Bo Nix after a slow start in the first month of the season. He has come on strong in the second half, and only need 82 more receiving yards to hit his contract incentive of 1,065 total yards.

The Broncos desperately need a big game from Sutton on Sunday to clinch their playoff spot against the Chiefs. Luckily, they're going against the backups as they seek revenge for an earlier season close loss. Sutton has a receiving total of 76.5 yards, so if you want to back him to hit this incentive, it is a mathematically good setup.

Geno Smith Passing Yards + Seahawks Win

The Seattle Seahawks may not have a chance at the playoffs after getting eliminated by the Rams last week, but there is still some opportunities for players to get paid. Geno Smith is one of them, who needs 185+ passing yards and a win to take home his $2,000,000 contract incentive.

The Seahawks are favored by a touchdown against the Rams, who are resting the majority of their starters. Stafford, Kupp, Nacua, and Kyren Williams are all out on the offense, meaning they won't be getting a ton of first downs and Geno will have more time with the ball. He should be airing it out to get over these yards, with his total set at 243.5. Many books know this, and are limiting your ability to take his alt passing yards at a lower number, but if you can find it and combine with Seahawks ML, you will get better odds for this incentive.

JK Dobbins Rushing Yards

The Los Angeles Chargers will visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon, and JK Dobbins should get a solid load for LAC. Dobbins needs 58 more rushing yards to get a $150,000 payday, and the Chargers may lean on him later today as they try to steal the fifth seed.

Since the Steelers lost to the Bengals last night, the Charges can slide into the No. 5 wild card spot and visit the Houston Texans instead of facing off with the Baltimore Ravens again. Jim Harbaugh would probably like to avoid his brother's team for as long as possible and go against a banged-up Houston team instead. The Raiders don't even want to win for the draft order, so Dobbins should run at will against one of the worst rush defenses in the league that will likely be missing Maxx Crosby up front.

However, Dobbins' rushing total has been jacked up to 69.5 yards, so he would have to soar over the incentive to just cash his even odds line. Be mindful of that, and consider an alternate 60+ with Chargers ml if you want to be more technical with this incentive line.