Ranking Biggest NFL Draft Busts and Steals in Football History
The NFL Draft will finally get underway on Thursday night after months of speculation and anticipation. It's important to revisit history as each team steps up to the plate in the first round, will they join this list of biggest busts, or will they end up with a steal in the later rounds? Matt MacKay takes a look at the biggest NFL Draft busts and steals in the history of the league.
Matt MacKay - April 24, 2025, 8:20 AM EDT
5 minRanking Biggest NFL Draft Busts and Steals in Football History
Now that the 2025 NFL Draft is here, it's fun to take some time to look back on a few of the biggest busts and steals in history. Lives and franchises will both change, for better or for worse, during the next three days. Only time will tell which current prospects underachieve or overachieve, as NFL teams prepare to beef up their 2025 rosters.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his biggest NFL Draft busts and steals in the history of the NFL Draft. Make sure to follow Matt's X account for more NFL Draft insight and free picks during the 2025 NFL Draft.
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BIGGEST NFL DRAFT BUSTS & STEALS IN HISTORY
RANK | PLAYER | DRAFT PICK | TEAM | BUST OR STEAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | QB Jamarcus Russell | 1st Overall (2007) | Oakland Raiders | Bust |
2 | QB Tom Brady | 199th Overall (2000) | New England Patriots | Steal |
3 | QB Ryan Leaf | 2nd Overall (1998) | San Diego Chargers | Bust |
4 | QB Joe Montana | 82nd Overall (1979) | San Francisco 49ers | Steal |
5 | QB Josh Rosen | 10th Overall (2018) | Arizona Cardinals | Bust |
6 | QB Johnny Manziel | 22nd Overall (2014) | Cleveland Browns | Bust |
7 | RB Trent Richardson | 3rd Overall (2012) | Cleveland Browns | Bust |
8 | CB Richard Sherman | 154th Overall (2011) | Seattle Seahawks | Steal |
1. QB JAMARCUS RUSSELL
Coming out of LSU, 6-6 265 pound QB JaMarcus Russell's big arm showed a lot of promise heading into the NFL. Drafted No. 1 overall by the Oakland Raiders in 2007, Russell's career flamed out in the pros, going 7-18 as a starter and only completing 52.1 percent of pass attempts.
Russell only played three seasons and finished with 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He committed 25 fumbles and went 40-175-1 as a ball carrier in the NFL. Russell's selection at No. 1 is undoubtedly the biggest bust in the history of the NFL Draft.
2. TOM BRADY
Tom Brady's pedestrian career at Michigan led to one of the most successful careers of any quarterback to ever start in the NFL. An injury to Patriots QB1, Drew Bledsoe, opened the door for Brady, who never looked back.
Drafted 199th overall in 2000, Brady won seven Super Bowls with multiple teams and helped create a dynasty in New England. He also won three MVPs and five Super Bowl MVPs.
3. QB RYAN LEAF
A shoulder injury in 1999 helped derail QB Ryan Leaf's NFL career. After being drafted 2nd overall in 1998 by the San Diego Chargers, Leaf will forever be overshadowed by the legacy Peyton Manning left behind as the No. 1 overall pick in the 1998 NFL Draft class.
Leaf finished his NFL career with a 4-17 record as a starter with a 48.4 percent completion rate. He threw only 14 touchdowns with 36 interceptions. This included at least 15 interceptions during his only two seasons as a starter for the Chargers in 1998 and 2000.
4. QB JOE MONTANA
San Francisco struck gold with QB Joe Montana drafted in the 3rd round of the 1979 NFL Draft. Montana would go on to win four Super Bowls, two MVPs, and three Super Bowl MVP awards.
Montana went 117-47 as a starter. He finished his 15-year career with a 63.2 percent completion rate, over 40,000 passing yards, and 273 touchdown passes.
5. QB JOSH ROSEN
Josh Rosen played well during his stint at UCLA but it didn't carry over into the NFL after being drafted 10th overall by the Arizona Cardinals in 2018. Rosen went 3-13 as a starter with a 54 percent completion rate, 2,864 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.
In three games as a starter for the Miami Dolphins in 2019, Rosen logged one touchdown pass and five interceptions. His QBR topped out at 24.1 during his 3-10 rookie campaign with the Cardinals.
Rosen never scored a rushing touchdown in the NFL. He totaled 26 carries for 151 rushing yards, while losing 11 total fumbles.
6. QB JOHNNY MANZIEL
Johnny Manziel had plenty of talent to lean on during his rise to stardom at Texas A&M. The NFL humbled Manziel, who was frequently dealing with off-the-field issues and distractions that negatively impacted his play as the Browns' QB1.
"Johnny Football" became hyped up due to his speed and agility, evading pressure in the pocket and as a ball carrier, while finishing plays in highlight-reel fashion. Manziel went 2-6 as a starter for the Browns after being drafted No. 22 overall in 2014. Manziel recorded a 57 percent completion rate, 1,675 passing yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions during his two-year NFL career. Despite his speed and quickness, Manziel only scored one rushing touchdown, fumbled nine times, and averaged 18.5 yards per game as a ball carrier.
7. RB TRENT RICHARDSON
The Cleveland Browns had another bust a couple of years before Manziel when they drafted Alabama RB Trent Richardson at No. 3 overall in 2012. Richardson had a solid rookie campaign, finishing 2012 with 950 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 51-367-1 as a receiver.
2013 and 2014 saw Richardson take a nose dive. He fell to a 3.0 YPC average and went 188-563-3 as a ball carrier in Cleveland and after arriving in Indianapolis. After scoring 11 rushing touchdowns in 2012, Richardson only scored six more touchdowns during the next two seasons combined.
Richardson's yards per game went from 63.3 during his rookie year, to 35.2 and 34.6 yards per game in 2013 and 2014. His inability to pick up yardage is one of the more baffling outcomes in the history of the NFL Draft.
Richardson had a highly-decorated and successful collegiate career with the Crimson Tide. He averaged 5.8 YPC and racked up 24 total touchdowns his junior year.
8. CB RICHARD SHERMAN
Let's end on a positive note with CB Richard Sherman. He was an integral piece to Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defensive back room during their Super Bowl run under head coach Pete Carroll. Sherman would go on to become a 3-time All-Pro, 5-time Pro Bowler, and make the HOF All-2010s Team.
Sherman was drafted 154th overall and delivered a massive return on the Seahawks' fifth-round draft pick in 2011. Coming out of Stanford, Sherman's physicality and ball-tracking ability eventually made him one of the most dominant cornerbacks in the NFL.
He finished his 10-year career with 495 tackles, 116 pass deflections, 37 interceptions, five forced fumbles, and three touchdowns. Sherman's rangy body and vision helped the Seahawks get to multiple Super Bowls, including a dominant rout of Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos during Super Bowl 48.
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