NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Mike Vrabel Clear Favorite, Ben Johnson Hot on His Heels in Final Month
Mike Vrabel has taken a commanding lead in the NFL Coach of the Year race, with Ben Johnson in hot pursuit as the Bears keep winning. Which of these coaches with new teams can take home the award? Peter Alexis breaks down the rest of the NFL Coach of the Year odds race entering December.
Peter Alexis - December 4, 2025, 10:40 AM EST
5 Minute ReadNFL Coach of the Year Odds: Can Mike Vrabel Hold Off Red-Hot Ben Johnson in COTY Race?
The NFL Coach of the Year race has undergone a dramatic shift over the past month. What once looked like a tight duel between Shane Steichen and Mike Vrabel has now become Vrabel’s award to lose. The Patriots have ripped off 10 straight wins, surged to an 11-2 record, and enter their late-season bye as one of the hottest teams in football. Vrabel’s fingerprints are all over New England’s turnaround, and oddsmakers have taken notice, pushing him to a commanding -195 as the clear favorite.
Meanwhile, Steichen’s Colts have cooled off considerably. After he sat atop the market at +120 in late October, Indianapolis has dropped multiple key games to the Chiefs and Texans, falling out of sole control of the AFC South. At 7-5, the Colts are still very much a playoff contender, but the shine of their early-season surge has worn off. Steichen now sits at +2500, a reflection of both his team’s skid and the emergence of new contenders.
The biggest of those risers is Chicago’s Ben Johnson, whose Bears have shocked the league by climbing to 9-3, winning five straight, and seizing control of the NFC North. Add in Mike Macdonald and the 9-3 Seahawks, and the COY race now features a trio of first-year head coaches who are all trying to chase down the red-hot Patriots. With five weeks left and multiple heavyweight matchups ahead, the finish could get chaotic.
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2025 Coach of the Year Odds
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NFL Coach of the Year Odds Breakdown
Mike Vrabel (-195) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
New England’s stunning 10-game win streak has completely flipped this award race. Vrabel inherited a Patriots team that had not been relevant for several seasons, and he immediately restored the defensive toughness, situational intelligence, and identity that defined the franchise’s dynasty years.
At 11-2, New England is firmly in the hunt for the AFC’s top seed and has become one of the NFL’s most complete teams. The narrative is nearly perfect: fired by Tennessee, rehired in Foxborough, and now leading a turnaround no one saw coming. If the Patriots win three more games—or if Chicago stumbles—this award may be locked up before Week 18.
Ben Johnson (+275) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Johnson’s rise is one of the biggest surprises of the season. The Bears entered the year with modest expectations, yet they now sit at 9-3 and have beaten the Eagles, Steelers, and Vikings during their current five-game heater. Chicago’s offense has evolved into a disciplined, explosive unit, and Johnson’s schemes have unlocked the best version of this roster.
But the road gets much tougher from here: the Bears face the Packers twice, the Lions, and the 49ers in the final five weeks. They will likely be underdogs in nearly all of those games. If Chicago survives that gauntlet, Johnson can absolutely steal this award. But the odds reflect how unforgiving the upcoming schedule is.
Mike Macdonald (+800) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Macdonald remains firmly in the mix, even if he’s a step behind Vrabel and Johnson. Seattle is 9-3 and battling the Rams for control of the NFC West in one of the league’s deepest divisions. Macdonald’s defensive background has elevated the Seahawks into a fast, aggressive unit that thrives in close games, and the offense has played clean, complementary football under Sam Darnold.
If Seattle edges out the Rams for the division and closes strong, Macdonald will remain a live longshot. But he needs both a near-perfect finish and some Bears losses to truly threaten the leaders.
Shane Steichen (+2500) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
A month ago, Steichen was the favorite. Now he’s barely hanging on to a spot on the board. The Colts remain competitive, but back-to-back losses to Houston and Kansas City have halted their early-season momentum. Indianapolis is no longer in control of the AFC South, and the Colts offense has regressed from its red-hot September form.
Steichen is still viewed positively around the league, but Coach of the Year is about exceeding expectations—something the Colts have stopped doing recently. At +2500, he is essentially out of the running unless the leaders collapse.
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