Arsenal Regains Commanding Premier League Lead After Dramatic Man City Draw on Monday
Man City blew their Premier League advantage with a shocking draw to Everton on Monday night, is there enough time to recover? Peter Alexis reviews the latest Premier League Winner odds as of Monday, May 4th.
Peter Alexis - May 4, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadPremier League Winner Odds: Is Man City Out of the Title After Draw to Everton on Monday, May 4th?
The Premier League title race may have shifted decisively on Monday, as Manchester City’s dramatic 3-3 draw at Everton left Arsenal five points clear at the top with the finish line in sight. City rescued a point through Jeremy Doku’s 97th-minute equalizer, but the damage had already been done after Everton flipped the match in the second half and forced Pep Guardiola’s side into desperation mode.
Arsenal now sit on 76 points with three matches remaining, while City have 71 points with four matches left. The title is not mathematically over, but the market has moved sharply toward the Gunners, who are now -400 to win the Premier League. City are back at +350, needing to win out and hope Arsenal draw or lose at least once just to bring the race back into tiebreaker territory.
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Premier League Winner Odds
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Premier League Winner Odds Breakdown
Arsenal (-400) Check out the best odds with BetMGM Sportsbook
Arsenal can feel the title now. The Gunners have spent much of the modern Premier League era chasing Manchester City, watching Guardiola’s machine repeatedly turn spring into a procession and punish every late-season wobble. Arsenal know that feeling better than most after recent runner-up finishes, but this time the table, the schedule, and the odds board all point in their direction.
The context is enormous. Arsenal have not won the league since the 2003-04 Invincibles season, a drought that has carried through multiple rebuilds, near-misses, and painful late-season fades. City, by contrast, have made winning the Premier League feel almost routine in the Guardiola era. That is why this number matters. At -400, Arsenal are no longer being priced as a team trying to chase City. They are being priced as a team that simply has to avoid blinking.
The run-in is manageable but not risk-free. Arsenal go to West Ham on Sunday as -165 road favorites, then still have Burnley at home and Crystal Palace away. On paper, that is a clean closing stretch for a title favorite. In reality, pressure changes everything. West Ham away is exactly the type of fixture that can become uncomfortable if Arsenal start slowly as the Hammers are desperate to avoid relegatoin, while Crystal Palace on the final day could carry real jeopardy if the race is still alive.
There is also the Champions League factor. Arsenal play Atletico Madrid in the semifinal second leg on Tuesday, with the tie level at 1-1 and a place in the final on the line. That gives the Gunners a chance at a historic finish, but it also adds emotional and physical strain at the worst possible time. The market is still telling the right story: Arsenal are firmly in control, but the final three league matches are now about maturity, rotation, and whether Mikel Arteta’s side can handle being the hunted.
Manchester City (+350) Check out the best odds with Bet365 Sportsbook
Manchester City are not dead, but Monday’s draw at Everton was a brutal swing. City led through Doku before collapsing after halftime, with Everton scoring three times and putting Guardiola’s side on the edge of a defeat that would have felt final. Erling Haaland pulled one back in the 83rd minute, then Doku rescued the draw deep into stoppage time, but one point was not enough for a team that needed three.
The problem for City is control. They still have the extra match, and they still have the pedigree, but the title is no longer in their hands. Even if City beat Brentford at home on Saturday as -275 favorites, they would still need Arsenal to stumble. Their remaining league matches come against Brentford, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa, a schedule that gives them a route to 12 points but also leaves little margin for rotation or emotional recovery.
The Everton draw was especially damaging because it wasted the chance to apply immediate pressure. City entered the match knowing a win would keep Arsenal looking over their shoulder. Instead, they handed the Gunners breathing room. The late fightback preserved hope, but the market reaction is clear: +350 is not a respect problem, it is a math problem. City must win every remaining league match and still rely on help.
That said, no team is more dangerous in this position than Manchester City. They have built their dynasty on late-season surges, relentless winning streaks, and title races that tighten when others expect them to fade. Arsenal have been the team most often haunted by that machine, which is why the race still has tension. But after Monday, City are no longer chasing from a position of menace. They are chasing from a position of dependence, and Arsenal finally have the clearest path to ending a 22-year wait.
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