Brazil Election Odds: Lula da Silva Regains Advantage Over Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead of October Election
Brazil holds the first round of its presidential election on October 4, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Can the younger Bolsonaro overcome the political baggage surrounding his family and recreate his father’s conservative coalition, or will Lula secure another term?
Peter Alexis - August 13, 2026, 9:56 AM EDT
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Kalshi gives Lula a 65% chance of winning the Brazilian presidency, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 28% and Renan Santos at 6%. More than $3.12 million has traded on the market, which has swung dramatically since the spring after Bolsonaro briefly moved ahead of Lula around April.
That movement was not purely prediction-market speculation. An April AtlasIntel survey had Flávio narrowly ahead of Lula 47.8% to 47.5% in a hypothetical runoff, while another April poll showed the two statistically tied. The picture has since shifted back toward the incumbent, although several recent surveys show Bolsonaro remaining competitive enough that the race is far from settled.
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Latest Brazil Election Odds From Kalshi
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (65%) Bet on the Brazil Election with Kalshi Here
Lula is seeking an extraordinary fourth presidential term after previously winning elections in 2002, 2006 and 2022. Now 80, the Workers’ Party leader returned to power by narrowly defeating Jair Bolsonaro four years ago and enters the final two months of this campaign as the clear prediction-market favorite.
Recent polling supports that position. The August CNT/MDA survey had Lula at 42.4% in the first round compared with 28.7% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and Lula led a potential runoff 48.0% to 39.1%. The runoff gap has narrowed from 49.3% to 36.8% in June, however, suggesting Bolsonaro has regained some ground even as Lula remains ahead.
Other surveys have produced a considerably tighter picture. A recent Palver poll had Lula and Bolsonaro tied at 46% in a runoff, while a late-July Datafolha survey gave Lula a 48% to 43% advantage. The variation helps explain why Kalshi can price Lula at 65% without treating the election as remotely decided.
Flávio Bolsonaro (28%) Bet on the Brazil Election with Kalshi Here
Flávio is attempting to inherit one of the most powerful and polarizing political brands in modern Brazilian politics. Jair Bolsonaro selected his eldest son to carry forward his movement after becoming unable to run himself, and Flávio formally launched his campaign in July on a platform emphasizing lower taxes, tougher crime policies and continuation of his father’s conservative legacy.
The family name is simultaneously his biggest advantage and his clearest liability. Jair Bolsonaro still commands a devoted conservative base, but the former president is serving a sentence of 27 years and three months after Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted him of plotting a coup to remain in office following his 2022 election defeat. Bolsonaro and his lawyers have challenged the case, but the conviction ensures that the events following the 2022 election remain central to his son’s campaign.
Flávio has nevertheless shown that the Bolsonaro coalition remains politically significant. His April polling surge was strong enough to put him effectively level with Lula, and more recent surveys have again shown the race tightening. He has also tried to broaden the campaign beyond his father, developing an economic program centered on stricter spending controls while receiving support from prominent international conservatives.
The larger problem is rejection. One recent poll put rejection of Lula at 52% and Flávio at 51%, meaning both leading candidates enter with substantial groups of voters strongly opposed to them. For Flávio, the path requires retaining voters loyal to his father while convincing enough moderates that his presidency would not simply reproduce the controversies surrounding Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazil Presidential Election Betting Outlook
Flávio Bolsonaro clearly has a chance, and the spring demonstrated how quickly the race can change. He briefly challenged Lula for the lead in both polling and prediction markets, and even the latest CNT/MDA numbers show his runoff deficit narrowing. The Bolsonaro name still provides a large, motivated electoral base rather than functioning only as a liability.
The difference between April and August is that Lula has re-established himself as the more consistent polling leader. Kalshi’s 65% to 28% split reflects that advantage, while still leaving meaningful probability for another Bolsonaro comeback.
The central question is whether Flávio can separate his own candidacy from the circumstances that ended his father’s political career without losing the voters attracted to that legacy in the first place. His April surge showed that the coalition can get him close. The next seven weeks will determine whether that was the high point of his campaign or evidence that Lula’s current 65% market advantage can still disappear before the runoff.
- Lean: Lula Incumbent (65%) Bet on the Brazil Election with Kalshi Here
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