Miami Mayor Odds: Will Eileen Higgins Cruise to Victory in December 9 Runoff Election?

The Miami mayoral race has transformed from a competitive, unpredictable contest into one of the most lopsided runoff matchups in recent Florida political memory. After no candidate reached the 50% threshold in the November 4 election, the field narrowed to the top two vote getters: Democrat Eileen Higgins and Republican Emilio Gonzalez. What was once viewed as a tight ideological clash for control of one of America’s fastest growing cities has now turned into a runaway surge for Higgins, whose momentum has accelerated sharply over the past six weeks.

This contest was expected to be close. Miami’s recent political trajectory has tilted increasingly red, with Republican backed candidates performing well in federal and statewide races since 2018. Gonzalez entered the fall stretch as the presumed frontrunner, bolstered by the endorsement of Governor Ron DeSantis and leading heavily in early probabilities. But as the field of candidates fractured the vote and Higgins carved out a broad coalition among young voters, urban progressives, and moderate Democrats, the dynamics shifted dramatically. By late October, the race was no longer Gonzalez’s to lose — it was Higgins’ to seize.

Now, with just days remaining before the December 9 runoff, the probability markets have reached their strongest verdict yet. Higgins, who secured nearly double Gonzalez’s vote share in the first round, is now trading at an overwhelming 98% chance to win. Gonzalez has plummeted to 5%, reflecting the near impossibility of making up such a large gap in a head to head matchup. Let’s break down how the odds unfolded and what the final week looks like for both candidates.

Bet on the Miami Mayoral Race and more politics props with Kalshi Here

Latest Miami Mayor Election Odds From Kalshi

Higgins’ surge has been one of the most dramatic reversals in any U.S. municipal race this year. In mid October, she trailed Gonzalez 64% to 35% in probability markets, reflecting skepticism that a Democrat could win a major office in a state trending increasingly conservative. But as debates, endorsements, and turnout operations sharpened, voters began shifting steadily. By October 24, the two were tied. By November 4, Higgins had pulled ahead to 74%, signaling that her ground game and message were resonating despite a crowded field of competitors. Her 35% share of the first round vote validated that shift, nearly doubling Gonzalez’s total and setting the tone for the runoff. All signs now point toward a dominant finish.

The Gonzalez campaign, once the presumed successor path under Governor DeSantis’ influence, has struggled to maintain footing since late October. His early position — built on strong name recognition, organizational support, and Miami’s rightward lean — began to erode as the field consolidated around Higgins’ more energized coalition. His 19% showing on November 4 was a major blow, placing him far behind Higgins and exposing structural weaknesses in his voter base. With only one week left and no evidence of a late breaking surge, the market’s pessimism has pushed him to just 5%, one of the steepest drops in any runoff election this cycle.

Several forces converged to reshape this race. Higgins benefited from a fractured field that diluted conservative leaning voters while leaving her with a unified bloc of engaged Democrats. She also capitalized on dissatisfaction among Miami residents regarding housing, development, and infrastructure issues that Gonzalez struggled to address with clarity on the campaign trail. Meanwhile, Gonzalez’s alignment with DeSantis — normally a powerful boost in Florida — may have had mixed effects in a local contest centered heavily on city level concerns rather than statewide ideological battles. The result has been a steady, irreversible swing in Higgins’ direction.

With Higgins holding a commanding lead and entering the runoff with a nearly double margin in votes, Gonzalez faces an enormous, likely insurmountable challenge. Runoff elections typically feature lower turnout, and Higgins’ ground game appears far better positioned to mobilize supporters who have already backed her decisively. Gonzalez would need a massive realignment of voters from eliminated candidates, a surge in right leaning turnout, and a collapse in Higgins’ support — none of which the current data suggests is even remotely probable. As things stand, the December 9 election appears poised to cement a decisive Higgins victory and deliver Democrats a rare high profile win in deep red Florida.

More of oddschecker

• Looking for extensive politics odds? Check it out here
• Read the latest insights and odds updates from our oddschecker team
• Interested in sports betting picks? See all sports from our team of experts