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Australian Open Odds Day 11 Women’s Semi-Finals: Ashleigh Barty vs. Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek vs. Danielle Collins

Previewing day eleven of the women's Australian Open semi-finals. Nikki Adams shares the odds and her picks for today's matches.
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Australian Open Odds Day 11 Women’s Semi-Finals: Ashleigh Barty vs. Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek vs. Danielle Collins

The Australian Open semi-finals get underway with the women’s field taking center stage at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne. Ashleigh Barty continues her quest to become the first Australian champion since Christine O’Neil in 1978 while Poland’s Iga Swiatek looks to reach her second grand slam final since winning the 2020 French Open. 

By the tennis odds, Barty and Swiatek are favored to advance into the final, but they face stiff competition from Americans Madison Keys and Danielle Collins, respectively. Will they deliver in their favor? 

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Ashleigh Barty vs. Madison Keys

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Ashleigh Batty is in the midst of one of her best Australian Open runs, reaching her second semi-finals Down Under since 2020. Two years ago, Barty lost to Sofia Kenin 7-6 (6), 7-5 in the penultimate round.

This year, Barty navigates a course to the final four without dropping a set and conceding just 17 games through five matches. Nobody seems to have had an answer for Barty this tournament. That sets up a daunting prospect for Madison Keys, who is looking to make only her second career grand slam final appearance this week.

Most recently, the Australian took care of Jessica Pegula comfortably, dismissing the American 6-2, 6-0. Barty got off to a bit of a nervy start against Pegula, but she reigned herself in quickly. She served at 60% first serves and won 81% of her first serves. She wasn’t broken at all on serve, faced just one break point in the match. Conversely, she broke Pegula in five of nine attempts. 

Keys reaches the semis on the back of a straightforward win over Barbora Krejcikova on a scorching day in Melbourne. The conditions visibly affected the Czech player, diminishing her ability to counter Keys’ big strokes. Keys won 6-3, 6-2 while serving at 72% first serves and winning 77% of her first-serve points. She converted on four of 12 break points but was also broken once in eight attempts.

Both Barty and Keys come into the Australian Open on good form, underscored by wins in Adelaide. Barty won the first event, while Keys won the second Adelaide tournament the following week. Head-to-head, Barty owns the 2-1 edge over her American counterpart. The last meeting was a 6-3, 7-5 win for Barty in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.

It’s safe to say that both Barty and Keys are the best players right now based on form. Keys is the considerable underdog at +333 with bet365, but her power game and serve can overpower opponents. Barty will have all to do to absorb the pace of Keys. If there’s a player that can do it, it’s certainly Barty who is tipped as the firm -450 favorite to win. 

All told, this should be a competitive match that could go either way and, even, the distance. Barty is probably the better bet, as indicated by the odds, but a Keys win wouldn’t be surprising at all. 

Iga Swiatek vs. Danielle Collins

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Iga Swiatek overcame Kaia Kanepi in the quarterfinals, coming from a set down to win in three, 4-6, 7-6 (2), 6-3. It was her second-straight come-from-behind win after overcoming Sorana Cirstea in the quarterfinals, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3. Swiatek’s last two matches were challenging, but the Pole’s game showed considerable maturation and development. After a brief racquet-smashing moment early in her quarterfinal contest, she seemed to collect herself and calmed down. Certainly, that allowed her to take control and ultimately win. 

Swiatek reaches her first-ever Australian Open semi-finals, extending her good form Down Under to 8-1 since the start of the season. The Polish star has experience winning grand slams, which gives her an edge over Danielle Collins in the betting markets. Swiatek claimed her maiden title in the autumn of 2020, at the rescheduled French Open due to the disruption of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Collins came close to a grand slam final. She enjoyed a Cinderella run at the Australian Open in 2019 when she emerged seemingly out of nowhere to reach the final four. Collins lost to Petra Kvitova 7-6(2), 6-0 in the semis. Now, with a second crack before her, she’ll be hoping to go the distance.

Collins advances into the final four following a routine win over Alize Cornet. The American made light work of the veteran, beating her 7-5, 6-1. She made 54% of her first serve0073 and won a stellar 90% of those. She broke Cornet four out of nine times and put together a seven-game winning streak at one point during the match. 

The market for this semi-final is a lot tighter than the Barty vs Keys matchup. Swiatek is only a -150 favorite, while Collins is tipped at +120 (odds available with bet365). Swiatek should win, but Collins is a plucky underdog that can’t be overlooked.

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Nikki Adams is a freelance sports writer that’s honed in on the world of sports betting. She joined OddsChecker in 2021 after having covered a number of major American sports, including NFL and NCAAF, for several other publications in the industry. When she’s not looking for the best betting angles and writing engaging and insightful articles, she’s likely on a tennis court or binging on reality TV.


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