Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Can Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays Start Off Hot?
The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers face off tonight. Can Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays start off hot? Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - May 30, 2023, 4:35 PM EDT
5 minToronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Can Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays Start Off Hot?
The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers enjoyed a day off yesterday over Memorial Day, and both enter this series fresh off a win. The Brewers escaped a four-game sweep, taking the series closer against the San Francisco Giants on Sunday by a score of 7-5. The Blue Jays took two of three against the Minnesota Twins and recorded a 3-0 shutout win on Sunday. For this series opener, the Blue Jays are solid -155 favorites on the money line, with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound. Can they get it done?
Blue Jays vs. Brewers Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, May 30, 2023
- Start Time: 7:07 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Yusei Kikuchi enters this game with a 5-2 record despite a below-average 4.56 ERA. However, his ERA lowers to 3.54 at home. Last year and so far this year, Kikuchi has much better numbers at home than on the road, and the Blue Jays are 3-1 at home in games Kikuchi starts this season. Kikuchi had a hot start to the year, sporting a 3.00 ERA in April, but his ERA in May of 6.29 has inflated his numbers a bit.
However, Kikuchi had started against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, and Tampa Bay Rays in May, which is a pretty tough schedule of teams all in first or second place in their division. Kikuchi pitches against the Brewers tonight, who may be in first in the NL Central, but Kikuchi should have an advantage over them tonight for one key reason: their performance against left-handed pitching.
The Brewers have flat-out stunk against lefties this season. Of all the bad teams like the Athletics, Royals, and Rockies, no team has done worse against lefty pitchers this season. The Brewers rank dead last in both average and OPS against left-handed pitching, sporting a .207 batting average and .616 OPS. The Brewers are 15-10 against right-handed starters and 8-10 against left-handed starters. Also, one of the Brewers' best right-handed hitters, Willy Adames, is out with a concussion, which is another blow against a lefty pitcher.
Adrian Houser is the starter for the Brewers, and he has looked nearly untouchable this season so far. He has pitched 11.1 scoreless innings against the Astros and Rays, and his ERA sits at 2.25 on the season, although he has only had four starts so far this year. Houser is coming off a season where he went 6-10 with a 4.73 ERA, and his pitch arsenal hasn't really changed, so I think he is due for a bit of regression, and he may face it tonight against the Jays.
The Jays rank third in the MLB against right-handed pitching, and opposite the Brewers, they hit off righties much better than lefties. Although the Astros and Rays are formidable opponents, the Jays have actually been hitting off righties better than both of those teams this season. They are a scary lineup when they are hot, and they hit even better at home, like most teams.
The last time the Blue Jays were at home, they got swept by the Orioles. They need a bounce back in Rogers Centre in a big way, and this is a prime spot to do so. The Brewers narrowly escaped a sweep against the Giants in their last series and are hitting the road after a long homestand. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Jays here, even if the ERAs tell a different story. I'm not leaving this one up to the bullpens, so I'm avoiding the juice and taking the Jays to be up after five behind Kikuchi.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
2 Unit Pick: Blue Jays First Five -0.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbooks have the best odds for this pick
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