Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Thursday
Looking for more MLB player prop bets for Thursday? Jason Radowitz provides his best MLB home run bets for May 30th. Read on to find out which players can go yard today.
Jason Radowitz - May 30, 2024, 9:31 AM EDT
5 minBest MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Thursday
We've added three home runs throughout the week, including last night's hit with Ian Happ at +520.
With today's eight-game slate, there aren't a ton of good spots. But I've still added my favorite three home run props below.
May 30 Best MLB Home Run Props
Jake Bauers to Hit a Home Run (+520) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Jameson Taillon is notoriously known for being awful against lefties.
Last season, Taillon allowed a .248 ISO and wOBA of .370 with 34.9% of fly balls and just 34.1% of ground balls.
This season, against his first 80 lefties, he's allowed a .208 ISO and wOBA of .366 with 27.6% of fly balls.
Over the last 30 days, Jake Bauers has smashed a .180 ISO and wOBA of .317 against righties. He's got a high strikeout rate, but Taillon isn't exactly a high strikeout pitcher, with just 17.5% of strikeouts against lefties this season.
Meanwhile, Bauers has smashed 34.5% of fly balls, 34.5% of line drives and 69% of hard contact to go along with a 13.8% barrel percentage over the month against righties.
Dylan Moore to Hit a Home Run (+630) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
The Astros will pitch Spencer Arrighetti for today's game against the Mariners. He's a righty, who has struggled against other righties since coming into the league.
Arrighetti has allowed a .206 ISO and wOBA of .387 to his first 76 righties. In addition, he's earned only 35.4% of ground balls and has allowed 33.3% of line drives.
That said, he'll be in line to face Dylan Moore of the Mariners. Moore has hit a .321 ISO and wOBA of .419 against other righties over the last 30 days. He's also socked 33.3% of fly balls, 38.1% of line drives and has a 59.5% hard contact rate against righties over his last 70 at-bats.
Matt Vierling to Hit a Home Run (+750) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
We're going with some larger longshots.
With that said, Matt Vierling has slugged a .333 ISO and wOBA of .397 against his last 49 righties. He's also struck out just 22.4% of the time against righties over the last 30 days and has hit 31.4% of line drives with only 31.4% of ground balls.
He'll face Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox, who has allowed a .271 ISO and wOBA of .351 to his first 62 righties this season.
Pivetta is a high strikeout pitcher. But when guys make contact, it's often hard. Pivetta has given up 45.2% of hard contact to righties and a 14.3% barrel percentage. With Vierling's strikeout rate at 22.4%, I'm confident he'll connect on a couple of pitches.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Jake Bauers to Hit a Home Run (+520) (Bet $100 to collect $620)
- Dylan Moore to Hit a Home Run (+630) (Bet $100 to collect $730)
- Matt Vierling to Hit a Home Run (+750) (Bet $100 to collect $850)
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MLB ODDS
