MLB Stolen Base Props: Can Francisco Lindor, Mets Find Success Stealing Against Corbin Burnes?
Corbin Burnes has really struggled to prevent runners from stealing in his career. Can Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets take advantage as they continue to be red-hot at the plate? Charlie DiSturco takes a look at some stolen base prop bets to make for Wednesday, April 30th in the Diamondbacks vs. Mets game.
Charlie DiSturco - April 30, 2025, 1:58 PM EDT
4 minMLB Stolen Base Props: Can Francisco Lindor Find Success Stealing Against Corbin Burnes, D-Backs?
The Arizona Diamondbacks look to get back on track after falling in the series opener to the New York Mets yesterday, handing the ball to Corbin Burnes. Can the Mets bats stay hot after another offensive outburst yesterday?
There actually may be another angle to take rather than total bases or home runs against Burnes: stolen bases.
Burnes has shown some signs of slowing down since his arrival in Arizona. His xERA through his first five starts sits at 5.25, and he’s posted the worst hard-hit rate (52%) of his career – next lowest being 40.3%!
But perhaps where Burnes has struggled the most in his career has been holding runners on base. Since last season, Burnes is dead last in the majors in net bases prevented (-21), per Baseball Savant.
He has also allowed 43 total stolen bases over the last two seasons, per Swish Analytics, with opponents having an 86% success rate. In other words, Burnes has been allowing nearly 0.2 stolen bases per inning. Despite being a reliable starter, he has been anything but in the running game.
While the Mets aren’t the most aggressive base stealing team, they are around the middle of the pack this season. NY has been red hot at the plate - 34 runs over the last three games - and that should continue against Burnes who, as I mentioned, has not been his normal dominant self in Arizona.
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Diamondbacks vs. Mets Stolen Base Odds
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
- Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB TV, SNY
Click here for latest Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Stolen Base Props
We can start with the obvious: Francisco Lindor (+350). He was the team leader in stolen bases last season (29) and is the leadoff man for New York. That means we’ll likely see three plate appearances against Burnes – thus, a higher likelihood of getting on base and having a stolen-base opportunity.
He also happens to hit behind Juan Soto and the red-hot Pete Alonso. So not only will Lindor see pitches to hit, but Soto is extremely patient at the plate. Lindor should be able to pick his spot to steal. Lindor is a great candidate here, posting the best xBA (.284) since 2018 and striking out at an elite 13.6%. Balls in play are key here, too.
The other option toward the top of the odds board I like – if he plays – is Luisangel Acuna (+350). He has already swiped seven bags this season, including one yesterday, and is in the 90th percentile in xBA this season. He has really impressed early on and has reached base six times in his last 14 at-bats.
Acuna is one of the best runners in the game and should be a threat to run every time he is on base.
Now here’s where the fun starts – going down the odds board a bit. There are two names to consider here: Tyrone Taylor (+650) and Juan Soto (+750).
Taylor hits toward the bottom of the lineup so his at-bats will likely be limited to just two vs. Burnes. But he’s always a threat to run and ranks in the 88th percentile of all hitters in baserunning value, and the 94th percentile in sprint speed, per Baseball Savant.
Over the last two seasons, he’s swiped 20 bases in just under 600 plate appearances. This year, we’ve seen him steal just once in 81. He has not been great at the plate and isn’t like the aforementioned Lindor, Acuna or Soto, but if he gets on, Taylor is always a threat to run.
Soto has the longest odds of the four mentioned here, but he has surprisingly stolen two bases this season. We all know about his elite batter’s eye and ability to get on base (16.8 BB%). He has also been a bit unlucky when it comes to batted ball luck. He has the worst BABIP of his career despite a 51.7% hard-hit rate.
When it comes to getting on base and opportunities to run, Soto will be chief among the Mets in that category. This bet is not for the faint of heart, though.
My plan of attack is simple: sprinkle 0.15u apiece on all four of these players. If we get one stolen base, we’re in the green. Two, and it’s a great day. And who knows, maybe we’ll get a nice double steal with Lindor and Soto. One can only dream, right?
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Stolen Base Props
- Francisco Lindor to Steal a Base (+350) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best D-Backs vs. Mets stolen base odds
- Luisangel Acuna to Steal a Base (+350)
- Tyrone Taylor to Steal a Base (+650)
- Juan Soto to Steal a Base (+750)
MLB ODDS
