Mets vs. Yankees Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest MLB Odds for Subway Series on Sunday Night Baseball
The New York Yankees will host the New York Mets in a cross-town Subway Series finale on Sunday Night Baseball. Can Max Fried and the Yankees dominate in this rubber match tonight? Matt MacKay analyzes both pitchers and explains his favorite betting pick for Mets vs. Yankees on Sunday, May 18th.
Matt MacKay
| 5 Minutes
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest MLB Odds for Subway Series on Sunday Night Baseball
The Subway Series will be featured for Sunday Night Baseball on May 18th, saving a great matchup between the New York Mets and New York Yankees for the final game on the slate. The series is currently tied 1-1 heading into Sunday night at Yankee Stadium.
Max Fried takes the mound for the Yankees, while David Peterson toes the rubber for the Mets tonight. Fried is a perfect 6-0 as a starter for his new team, while Peterson is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Fried's sporting an impressive 1.11 ERA.
MLB handicapper Matt MacKay is back with a best bet to tail during the close-out game of tonight's intial Subway Series at Yankee Stadium. This wager is worth one full unit of your betting bankroll. Follow Matt's X account for more MLB betting insight and free picks during the 2025 MLB season.
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Mets vs. Yankees Odds
- Moneyline: Mets +145, Yankees -160
- Spread: Mets +1.5 (-135), Yankees -1.5 (+115)
- Total: Over 9 (+105), Under 9 (-105)
Mets vs. Yankees Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, May 18, 2025
- Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Click here for the latest Mets vs. Yankees Odds
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction
The Yankees and Mets have played two tight games in the Bronx this weekend. The first game on Friday went in favor of the home team, with the Yankees scoring all six of their runs in the 3rd and 4th innings, building an insurmountable lead.
On Saturday, the Mets won a low-scoring 3-2 ball game to even the series. This happened despite the Yankees recording two more hits, both home runs, and 15 total bases. Six hits and eight total bases were the final tally for the Mets' offense, as the bullpen came up clutch, allowing only one hit in the final four innings.
The Yankees head into Sunday Night Baseball with a huge pitching edge. Max Fried is currently one of the favorites to win the 2025 AL Cy Young award. The Yankees acquired their new ace in the offseason from Atlanta and he's been a big return on investment so far this year.
Fried has a ridiculous 1.11 ERA. He's gone under a 2.00 ERA in seven straight starts for the Yankees. He hasn't walked more than two batters in a game, while only allowing two runs in his last five outings.
Simply put, Fried should dominate the Mets' lineup tonight. Peterson is coming off of back-to-back pedestrian performances against the Diamondbacks and Pirates. He recorded seven walks during this stretch, gave up nine total hits, four runs, and two home runs.
Aaron Judge is still batting over .400 at .402 through 45 games played. He's the current runaway favorite to win the AL MVP due to his red-hot production at the plate. Other batters in the Yankees lineup have also been effective, like Paul Goldschmidt (.341 BA), Ben Rice (nine home runs), Trent Grisham (.274 BA) and Jasson Domínguez (21 RBIs).
Pete Alonso has been the steadying hand in the Mets' lineup. Former Yankees star, Juan Soto, has begun to heat up as well.
Alonso leads the team with 38 RBIs, while second in hits (52) to Francisco Lindor's 53 hits. Both Alonso and Lindor lead the Mets with nine home runs. Soto has 20 RBIs and eight home runs, while leading the team with 33 total runs.
Some relevant trends for tonight's Subway Series tilt include the Mets going under the total runs line in 12 straight games as underdogs. Oddsmakers have set the run total at an even 9, which has won in both previous games played. Friday's game settled with eight total runs, while Saturday only saw five total runs.
The Mets have also lost 11 of their last 12 road games after a win. It's not a traditional road game tonight, so I think this is a bit of a throwaway trend. However, they have trailed after three innings in six straight games as a road underdog against AL East opponents. I think this data point is a bit more sticky.
Fried has won four straight appearances against the Mets. They have also failed to cover the run line after a win in four straight games.
All signs point toward the Yankees in a rebound effort at home to win the first Subway Series in 2025. They've got their ace on the bump in Fried, while the league's best hitter, Judge, leads a stacked lineup against a mediocre starting pitcher.
Let's bet a unit on the Yankees to cover their -1.5 run line at +125 odds. Fried will shut down the Mets' lineup and Judge will lead the bats with a resounding win to close out tonight's Subway Series by multiple runs.
Mets vs. Yankees Game Pick
- New York Yankees -1.5 (+125) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Subway Series odds
MLB ODDS
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