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The Minnesota Timberwolves will fight for their playoff lives as a road underdog in Game 7 on Sunday night. Will Anthony Edwards be able to carry the T-Wolves to an upset of the Nuggets, or will he get stymied by their defense? Ben Rajavuori provides his best bet in Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 7.
ANALYSIS

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Best Bet: Will Anthony Edwards Get Shut Down in Game 7?

The Timberwolves and Nuggets meet in Game 7 of the second round of NBA playoffs tonight from Ball Arena in Colorado. This series has been a wild one to watch as the T-Wolves jumped out to a demonstrative 2-0 lead on the road before losing the next three games, and falling down in the series 3-2. The They stayed alive in Game 6 at home with a huge blowout win, forcing this Game 7 in the defending champions' arena tonight. Do the T-Wolves have what it takes to pull this off on the road?

TIMBERWOLVES VS. NUGGETS GAME 7 DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: May 19, 2024
  • Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: TNT

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction

If the Wolves are going to pull off this Game 7 victory, it starts with Anthony Edwards. Edwards has emerged as one of the most electric players in the playoffs and is the undeniable star of this Timberwolves team. Edwards has exploded in the playoffs, averaging 30.2 points per game while also playing tremendous defense and making clutch plays on both ends of the court.

Edwards took over in Game 7, scoring 27 points and leading the way for the T-Wolves while only having one turnover and grabbing three steals. He also had four rebounds and four assists. This was the lowest rebounds and assists he had in a game during these playoffs, and that is where my focus will be tonight. Anthony Edwards' rebounds and assists line has been hanging around 11.5 and even 12.5 for most of the playoffs. However, tonight his line is 10.5 rebounds and assists, which is telling how the game script will look in this Game 7. The last game was an elimination game for the Wolves, and this is partly why I believe Edwards only had eight rebounds and assists. His main focus was scoring the ball, as he is the playmaker for the Wolves and their leading scorer. Because of this, he averaged his lowest potential assists of the series with only five, and he still converted four of them while also going under his line of 11.5 rebounds and assists last game. We were under 11.5 in Game 6 and I am also taking under 10.5 in Game 7 for many of the same reasons.

Anthony Edwards has gone under 10.5 rebounds in assists and four of the six games in the series so far. One of the games you can throw out as well is Game 5 where he had 13 rebounds and assists, but Mike Conley did not play. That is significant because Edwards had nine assists in that game, which was his highest of the series and it is no question that it is because Mike Conley was not in the game to distribute the ball as he usually does. The expectation is that Mike Conley will be playing tonight, so I expect Edwards to have around his usual four assists. It could even be lower, as he only had five potential assists in Game 6 as I said earlier, and the conversion rate for him to hit even four again would be unusually high. With Edwards mostly focused on being the main scorer in this offense and getting back on in transition, I do not expect him to fly over on his rebound either. His highest rebounds of this series was Game 1 when he had seven, and that seems to be his ceiling in this series. He’s only averaged 4.7 rebounds in this series overall. With Edwards focused on scoring and less on passing in another elimination game, I expect him to finish with three assists tonight and six rebounds. Game 7's are always more intense and tend to be lower scoring, which would also be more conducive to our bet here. Take the under Anthony Edwards rebounds and assists.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Best Bet

Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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