Nuggets vs. Thunder Same-Game Parlay: Can Chet Holmgren, OKC Stay Undefeated in NBA Playoffs Game 1?
The Oklahoma City Thunder have yet to drop a playoff game, and the oddsmakers don't think it will happen tonight, either. Chet Holmgren and OKC are heavily favored against Nikola Jokic and the Thunder in Game 1 of the second round. Jason Radowitz gives us his Nuggets vs. Thunder Same-Game Parlay for Monday night's clash.
Jason Radowitz - May 5, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
5 minNuggets vs. Thunder Same-Game Parlay: Can Chet Holmgren, OKC Stay Undefeated in NBA Playoffs Game 1?
The Oklahoma City Thunder earned a sweep over the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs. Now the Western Conference's No. 1 seed will battle it out in the second round against the Denver Nuggets, who needed all seven games to move on into the next round.
The Thunder won 18 more games in the regular season and should be much more well-rested ahead of this Game 1 matchup in the second round.
In addition, the Thunder have a home-court advantage in this series. They'll be home for the first two games, where they're already 35-6 this season.
Ultimately, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has fought Nikola Jokic for the MVP Award. This series will truly reveal who the better player has been this year.
That said, here's my same-game parlay for tonight's Game 1 matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
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Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds
- Spread: Nuggets +9.5 (-108), Thunder -9.6 (-112)
- Moneyline: Nuggets (+340), Thunder (-430)
- Total: Over 225.5 (-110), Under 225.5 (-110)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, May 5, 2025
- Game Time: 9:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TNT
Click here for latest Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 Same-Game Parlay
Leg 1: Thunder -9.5 (-110)
The Thunder have been the best defense in the NBA Playoffs so far. In the four-game sweep of Memphis, they held the Grizzlies to 101.9 points per 100 possessions and forced 18.3% of turnovers.
In addition, the Thunder limited the Grizzlies to a 48.2% effective field goal percentage. Still, Oklahoma City allowed nearly 30% of offensive rebounds and a high free-throw rate of 20.9. The Nuggets should be able to succeed on the glass, but finding good looks will still be challenging.
On the other hand, the Nuggets allowed 116.2 points per 100 possessions to the Clippers. LA was never known for being a top-tier offense. Yet, the Nuggets were embarrassed on defense for most of that series. Denver allowed a 55.7% effective field goal percentage, earning only 12.7% of turnovers.
Ultimately, the Thunder should be able to limit turnovers much more and find better shots overall. The Thunder also grabbed nearly 30% of offensive rebounds, so they'll also be competitive on the offensive glass.
Don't expect the Thunder to add a bunch of points at the foul line like the Nuggets, but Oklahoma City should end up with way more possessions and shot attempts from the turnovers they won't commit. Take the Thunder at -9.5.
Leg 2: Over 225.5 (-110)
The Thunder should torch the Nuggets offensively. Denver was beaten in a seven-game series by the Clippers, who, again, were never a top-tier offense. The Thunder added at least 114 points in each game against the Grizzlies, scoring 120.5 points per game.
On the other hand, the Nuggets also scored 120.8 points per game in the playoffs. We can look at the rest factor and give the advantage to the Thunder. But all in all, the Nuggets, like every team in the NBA, played multiple games with only 48 hours of rest in the regular season. This won't be a major factor against the Thunder.
Ultimately, Denver will struggle from the floor at times against this potent Thunder defense, but Denver still has a lot of offensive ability on their roster, including Nikola Jokic, who is mostly a walking triple-double.
Leg 3: Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Threes (+124)
The Over can still hit, and the Thunder can still win by 10+ without Chet Holmgren nailing two threes.
Holmgren didn't hit a single three in Oklahoma City's latest win against the Grizzlies. He's also added at least two threes in just 44% of games this season. Additionally, Holmgren has dropped two threes in just three of his last 12 games against the Nuggets.
Heading into this game, the Nuggets rank second in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage against centers. The Nuggets also rank first in the NBA in three-pointers made from centers this season.
Holmgren has shot 42.2% from downtown over the last ten games. But don't expect that to last against a Nuggets defense that defends the three well against centers.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Same-Game Parlay (+750) (Bet $100 to Collect $850)
- Leg 1: Thunder -9.5 (-110)
- Leg 2: Over 225.5 (-110)
- Leg 3: Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Threes (+124)
NBA ODDS
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