Indiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Pacers +8.5 Are the Move as Portland Keeps Torching ATS Bettors
The Indiana Pacers (15-48) stumble into Moda Center to face the Portland Trail Blazers (30-34) on Sunday, March 8, tipping off at 9:00 PM ET, with Deni Avdija confirmed out for his eighth consecutive game due to lower back injury management and Shaedon Sharpe already ruled out for the rest of the regular season with a fibula stress reaction. Portland opened as a significant home favorite and the spread settled at -8.5 (-115), with the total hovering at 237.0, setting up a matchup where the Blazers are the better team on paper but their cover rate as big favorites is genuinely alarming. Indiana is 0-8 straight up in its last eight, on the road with short rest after a Friday night loss in Los Angeles, and riding a 1-5 ATS record in its last six games against Portland. Those are all the obvious reasons to ignore the Pacers. The less obvious reason to back them at +8.5 is that Portland is 1-5 ATS in games they were favored by 8.5 points or more this season and 0-7 ATS in its last seven March games The line is doing most of the work for Indiana here.
OC Staff - March 8, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadIndiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Pacers +8.5 Are the Move as Portland Keeps Torching ATS Bettors
Pacers vs Blazers Recent Performance
Indiana's last eight games read like a greatest-hits reel of bad basketball. Losses to Memphis, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Dallas, Chicago, the Clippers, and twice to the Lakers, including Friday's 128-117 beatdown in Los Angeles where Luka Doncic dropped 44 in three quarters while the Pacers shot 2-for-19 from three in the first half. Siakam put up 26 points and Nembhard added 17, so the offense isn't completely offline. The problem is Indiana allows 119.6 points per game on the season, and its -8.2 scoring differential tells you everything about why this team owns the worst record in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers have lost 26 of their last 31 games on the road, and nothing about this Portland trip suggests Sunday flips that.
Portland enters Sunday off a 106-99 loss in Houston on Friday, its third defeat in the last four games. Without Avdija, the Blazers are running out Jerami Grant as the primary offensive option, and Grant was solid for 21 points against the Rockets, but he's not a 25-point-per-game guy and the offense shows it. Toumani Camara posted a career-high six steals in that loss, which is nice, but it didn't change the result. Portland is clinging to the 10th seed in the West for a Play-In berth, unable to win consecutive games since a three-match winning run in early February, and the team has lost six of its last ten. The Blazers are 16-15 at Moda Center, a home record that looks decent on paper but doesn't hold up when the spread is eight-and-a-half.
Indiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers Head to Head
Portland handled Indiana 112-89 at home in February 2025, and the Blazers hold a commanding edge in the all-time series at 63-39. Earlier this season, Indiana won 121-114 in Portland back in November and actually covered that one. The data shows Indiana went 0-for-5 in the last five head-to-head meetings on the spread, but Portland's cover rate in those games was propped up by a different roster. Avdija wasn't managing a back issue for a month at a stretch back then. The total has gone Under in five of Portland's last five home games against Indiana specifically, which cuts against the season-long Over trend for both teams. That's a useful wrinkle if the total catches your eye.
Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Indiana, KUNP 16, NBA League Pass
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Pacers vs Blazers Odds
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Pacers vs Blazers Team News
Portland's injury situation is the story of this game. Avdija hasn't played since February 22 after aggravating a lower back issue in the first minute against Phoenix, and the organization has offered no clear timeline beyond coach Tiago Splitter saying he's "probably coming back soon," a line that's been the same for two weeks. Sharpe is done for the year with that fibula stress reaction, meaning Portland is running a perimeter rotation of Grant, Camara, and Scoot Henderson as the primary options. Avdija has averaged 24.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists this season. Grant absorbs usage but not at that volume. Henderson's role has expanded with Avdija out and he's worth a look if you're building a prop card. Kris Murray battled illness on the road trip but should be available at home, giving the Blazers another wing body.
Indiana's injury list is equally long, just less impactful on the spread math. Tyrese Haliburton remains out for the season with an Achilles tear, so does Johnny Furphy (ACL), and Ivica Zubac is still unavailable with the ankle sprain he brought over from the Clippers trade. Siakam (24.0 PPG, 48.5% from the field) is the anchor and cleared his wrist issue, with Nembhard (7.3 APG) running the point alongside Aaron Nesmith, who is probable with a minor lower back strain. Jay Huff has been useful off the bench and Jarace Walker brings energy as the starting four. The Pacers' structural edge in this game is straightforward: Siakam draws a clean matchup every possession and Portland has nobody who can guard him one-on-one without Avdija holding that assignment.
Prediction: Blazers 116, Pacers 108
Portland wins this game. The Blazers are at home, they're the better team even shorthanded, and Indiana's road record is poor enough to bet against on most nights. Grant and Camara set the tone early, Scoot gets going in the second half, and the Pacers run out of answers in the third quarter the way they have in most losses this month. Siakam keeps Indiana respectable, working his way to 23-25 points through three quarters, and Nembhard chips in with enough assists and scoring to keep the game from becoming pure garbage time. Portland's fourth quarter is where the margin wobbles, though: bench rotations flatten out, effort dips, and Indiana capitalizes on open looks it didn't get earlier. The efficiency gap between these teams is real (roughly 5 points per 100 possessions in Portland's favor), but it's not 8.5 points real, especially with Avdija watching from the bench in street clothes.
Best Bet: Indiana Pacers +8.5 (-105) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Portland wins this game. That part is easy. What's not easy is covering 8.5 at home when your All-Star has been out for eight games, your best perimeter defender is shut down for the season, and your franchise is 1-5 ATS when laying this kind of number.
The efficiency analysis is where the spread falls apart. Portland's edge over Indiana works out to roughly 5 points per 100 possessions, and Indiana's plodding pace caps total possessions, meaning the margin the efficiency math actually projects lands somewhere in the 5-to-7 range, not 8.5. Add Portland going 0-7 ATS in its last seven March games and the case gets hard to argue against. The Blazers are not covering because they're not playing like a team that covers this number right now. They're playing like a Play-In squad running out the string without their best player and hoping to survive to the postseason.
Siakam draws a clean matchup, Nembhard finds his spots in pick-and-roll, and Indiana's offense (108.7 ORtg) does enough against Portland's leaky defense (115.5 DRtg) to keep the final margin from ballooning. Bettors who tracked Portland's ATS split as a big home favorite all season have been on the right side of this pattern. Indiana at +8.5 is the number to be on.
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