Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for Mountain West Tournament

The Boise State Broncos (22-9) and the San Diego State Aztecs (21-8) meet for the third time this season in the 4 vs. 5 game in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals. San Diego State swept the season series, winning 76-68 in Boise on January 4th, and defending home court on Feb 15 to the tune of a 64-47 win. 

In the first meeting, Tyson Degenhart had his worst offensive outing of the season, shooting 1-for-7 and failing to reach double figures for the only time all year. Miles Byrd led the Aztecs with 22 points.

In the rematch, San Diego State freshman Magoon Gwath—the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year—was a game-changer, racking up five blocks. Boise's 47 points were a season low, a far cry from their next-worst offensive performance of 65 points.

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Boise State vs. San Diego State Odds

Boise State vs. San Diego State Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: March 13, 2025
• Time: 5:30 pm ET
• Where To Watch: CBS Sports Network

Click here for latest Boise State vs. San Diego State Odds

Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction

This should be an awesome game today between two bubble teams fighting for their seasons.

San Diego State’s size, length, and athleticism were key factors in their success over Boise this season. The Aztecs have made Boise point guard Alvaro Cardenas uncomfortable, doubled Degenhart effectively, and protected the rim well. 

However, Gwath appears likely to miss this game due to injury as he's been out since February 22nd. His rim presence was so valuable in this last matchup, and not having him here is a huge deal.

Once again, the old adage “it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season” comes into play. I expect Boise to score one for the believers of that in this contest.

Since Jan 29th, Boise is 9-2, and ranks 44th on Bart Torvik (66th offensively, 28th defensively).  During that same stretch, SDSU is 59th (118th offense, 31st defense).

The numbers back up what I see on film. Offensively, Boise plays with much more intention. The Broncos are super physical attacking the rims from the high and low post. Plus their ball movement is crispy, and it’s an unselfish group.

Leon Rice’s guys will need to hit a respectable number of threes, especially since SDSU's defense allows one of the highest opponent 3-point attempt rates in the nation (14th highest).

Boise isn’t a great shooting team from behind the arc (31.5% on the season), but Degenhart, Cardenas, Andrew Meadow, and Javan Buchanan are all more than capable from back there.

Brian Dutcher’s group has some talented guards in Byrd and Nick Boyd, but as the numbers indicate they are a very bleh offensive team. If Boise can keep this game at a half-court pace and take care of the ball, I’m confident that they’ll be the team generating better looks and playing more efficient offense.

San Diego State has won 17 straight Mountain West quarterfinal games, so it does feel tough to go against them here. But without Gwath, I trust Boise to be able to make the necessary adjustments to improve their offensive output and execution vs. this Aztec defense.

Boise State vs. San Diego State Pick

• Pick: Boise State -2 (-110) Get oddschecker+ right now for just $9.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!