North Carolina vs. San Diego State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for NCAA Tournament First Four

11 seeds San Diego State and North Carolina face off in Dayton on Tuesday night in the First Four.

North Carolina was lucky to sneak into the NCAA Tournament with their 1-12 record in quad 1 games, a move that raised even plenty of eyebrows given that UNC’s AD chaired the selection committee. Anyways, Carolina staged a wild comeback from 24 down against Duke in the ACC Semifinals—only for a lane violation to wipe out their chance to force OT.

San Diego State got bounced in the Mountain West Quarterfinals for the first time in 17 years last week against Boise State in a grind-it-out game, 62-52. 

Important to note that the Aztecs are getting back talented freshman 7-footer Magoon Gwath, the Mountain West Freshman of the Year and DPOY, after missing over a month of action.

Lost in the controversy surrounding UNC’s selection is that they’re still a dangerous 11-seed. Carolina sits 33rd on KenPom and is laying 4.5 points against 46th-ranked San Diego State. The total has been bet down to 142.5, implying that the first team to 70 wins this matchup. So who will get to 70 first? Let's find out in this North Carolina vs. San Diego State prediction.

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North Carolina vs. San Diego State Odds

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: March 18, 2025
• Time: 9:10 pm ET
• Where To Watch: TruTV

Click here for latest North Carolina vs. San Diego State Odds

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Prediction

San Diego State is an elite defensive unit (13th nationally on KP). They are number 1 in block rate (mostly thanks to Gwath) and top 20 in both 2P and 3P FG% allowed. The Aztecs force opponents into taking a ton of threes -  47.3% of opponent shotl attempts come from deep, the second-highest rate in the field.

Now enter North Carolina, an undersized perimeter-led offense spearheaded by 5th-year guard RJ Davis. With Armando Bacot gone, UNC lacks a post-scoring presence and relies almost solely on dribble drives and perimeter shot making. The Tar Heels are top 10 nationally in percentage of shots taken at the rim, which San Diego State and their elite rim protection will welcome right in. 

If San Diego State’s perimeter defense can limit Carolina from getting to the rim and finishing there, will the Tar Heels be able to hit enough shots from deep to overcome that?

Eliot Cadeau was 3-3 from distance against Duke but he’s only hit 27 all year and I don’t trust him at all. Seth Trimble is shooting 28%, and the freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell seem to have hit a wall. Jackson’s minutes have gone down, and they hit a combined two triples across three ACC Tournament games. A guy who can get hot is 6-9 Jae’Lyn WIthers, who will be a key matchup for SDSU here.

I’ve always believed that UNC goes as RJ Davis goes. His 30 points led them to that big time win in Maui over Dayton. His 23 points and 5-6 three-point shooting was huge in the ACC Quarterfinal win over Wake Forest. Even in a close 6-point loss against Florida back in December he exploded for 29. Davis is their biggest threat by far as a shot maker from behind the arc, and he’ll need to be excellent for Carolina tonight.

Fortunately for San Diego State, they’ve got pesky guards like BJ Davis and Nick Boyd who will apply full court pressure and make life miserable for Davis and Cadeau.These pesky guards will absolutely make life difficult for those guys, and we’ve seen how UNC’s offense can stall out when they aren’t able to consistently penetrate and kick the ball out to get it moving.

Even though they grade out as a good offensive team (22nd KP), when they aren’t able to run out in transition like they prefer to (34th in tempo), things can get dicey in the halfcourt with a bit too much your turn my turn for my liking.

While San Diego State on the other hand can be choppy offensively at times (111th in offensive efficiency per KenPom), they have enough to get to the 70-point threshold that they are going to need here. Boyd is a stud who can shoot it, get downhill, and has played in a Final Four, Miles Byrd is an NBA talent who can heat up from deep, and Gwath is a tough matchup as a 7-footer who can put the ball on the floor. Even overlooked bigs Jared Coleman-Lands and Miles Heide could get going here down low against Carolina’s undersized frontcourt.

One key weakness of the Aztecs this season has been issues on the glass. They are the 237th best defensive rebounding team in the country.Their -12 rebounding margin was crucial in the Mountain West Tournament loss to Boise. Getting Gwath back will help, plus Carolina’s only got one dude who’s a problem on the offensive glass and it’s 6-8 Ven-Allen Lubin.

San Diego State is a super athletic team that is really tough to score on and has impressive wins over Houston and Creighton. Coach Brian Dutcher has 7 wins in the last two Tournaments with both losses coming vs UConn. And as a cherry on top, SDSU in my opinion has the better NBA prospects as well as I’d take Byrd/Gwath over Powell/Jackson all day.

I’m confident in San Diego State’s defense because of their ability to protect the rim, pressure Carolina’s guards, and I’m not scared of UNC three-point attack. I think the Aztecs rely on their defense here and find a way to win this one outright. Taking the 4.5 points as the smart play, but if you’re feeling frisky, play the ML +162.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Pick

• Pick: San Diego State +4.5 (-110) Get oddschecker+ right now for just $9.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!