Michigan vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Odds, Pick for No. 5 vs. No. 4 March Madness Round of 32 Showdown

Once again, Michigan was able to prevail on last-minute good fortune. Despite turning the ball over 14 times, the No. 5 seed Wolverines fended off No. 12 seed UC San Diego in the Round of 64 by three points. 

In Michigan’s last 13 wins, only two have come by more than four points, and only one by more than two possessions (18). After a hard fought win against the Tritons, Michigan readies for No. 4 seed Texas A&M. Can luck stay on its side in Dusty May’s first year at the helm?

Let's take a look at the odds, details, and matchup before making our pick on this big-time Second Round contest.

Michigan vs. Texas A&M Odds

• ML: Michigan +125, Texas A&M -142
• Spread: Michigan +2.5 (-105), Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 141.5 (-110), Under 141.5 (-108)

Michigan vs. Texas A&M Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 22, 2025
• Time: 5:15 PM ET
• Where to Watch: Paramount+, March Madness Live

Click here for latest Michigan vs. Texas A&M Odds

Michigan vs. Texas Prediction

Let’s start with style of play. This is a complete 180 from the opening round matchup against the Tritons. UCSD loves to shoot the three and play a very smooth style of basketball that is efficient. Granted, they didn’t shoot well on Thursday. But Texas A&M is the complete opposite. This team looks to beat you down. Literally. 

The Aggies do not have the most efficient scorers, but will nearly always have the athleticism and physicality edge. This is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country that gets to the free-throw line at an elite rate. The guards love to attack downhill and give its frontcourt a shot at an offensive board. 

Henry Coleman and Pharrel Payne rank inside the top 55 nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Andersson Garcia has continued to be a physical force and often double-double machine. 

More importantly, the Aggies defense should be able to take advantage of Michigan’s turnover issues. A&M is a top 10 defense in terms of efficiency and has a 19.7 TO%, 55th in the country.  We saw Michigan’s turnover issues on display against UCSD and the same struggles should transfer over. The Wolverines are 329th in turnover rate.

Tack on the fact that the Wolverines defense is below average in both forcing turnovers (269th) and defensive rebounding (177th), and this should slide the edge toward A&M.

As always, the key to slowing down Texas A&M is limiting second-chance opportunities. It was part of the reason many thought Yale could prevail in the Round of 64. While the Bulldogs were not unsuccessful in that effort (30% vs. A&M’s average of 41.7%), the Aggies’ success inside (71% on 2-point field goals) proved the difference. 

While Michigan will have the size advantage between the pair of seven-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, A&M’s defense forces opponents out toward the perimeter. Nearly half of shot attempts against the Aggies come from three. 

It’ll be an interesting matchup as Michigan is a well-balanced offense that is best inside. But this is an offense that isn’t afraid to let it fly; 42.6% of attempts come from the perimeter, 90th in the country.

Ultimately, I think there’s too many facets of the game that favor the Aggies here. Texas A&M’s elite ability at drawing fouls could hurt a Michigan team that isn’t particularly deep. The Aggies beat up their opponents and look for contact. The turnover issues Michigan has should lead to plenty of fastbreak opportunities and ways for A&M’s inefficient offense to not have to create off the dribble. 

Tack on the elite offensive rebounding rate – meanwhile, Michigan is 177th in defensive rebounding – and Texas A&M should have no issue having 2-3 shots a possession. This is a seasoned group and one that I’m looking to buy here and end the Wolverines’ luck. 

Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas A&M Aggies Pick

Pick: Texas A&M -142

COLLEGE BASKETBALL ODDS & PICKS

• Looking for March Madness odds? We got you covered!
• Need more March Madness picks? Get them all right here.
• Which longshots could go on a deep run? Check the latest Final Four Odds
• Duke has the best odds to win it all for the first time in a decade. Can anyone stop them? Take a look at the complete National Championship odds