Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Prediction: Can Sean Pedulla, Rebels Pull Off Another Upset in Sweet 16?

No. 2 Michigan State faces No. 6 Ole Miss tonight in the South Regional semifinal in Atlanta.

Ole Miss jumped out to a 20-point lead against 11-seed North Carolina in round one, then held on late for a 71–64 win. In the Round of 32, the Rebels torched 3-seed Iowa State with a hot shooting performance, winning 91–78. Sean Pedulla has been a standout, totaling 40 points and 13 assists across two games.

Michigan State has made a habit of slow starts followed by strong second halves. They led 15-seed Bryant by just five at the break before pulling away for an 87–62 win. Against 10-seed New Mexico, they trailed by two at halftime and recovered to win 71–63. It’s been a balanced effort for Tom Izzo’s squad — Coen Carr exploded for 18 off the bench vs. Bryant, and Jaden Akins paced them with 16 against the Lobos.

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Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Odds

• Spread: Ole Miss +3.5 (-110), Michigan State -3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Ole Miss (+150), Michigan State (-170)
• Total: Over 143.5 (-110), Under 143.5 (-110)

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 28, 2025
• Time: 7:09 PM ET
• How to Watch: CBS

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Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Prediction

Izzo and Chris Beard last met in the 2019 Final Four, when Beard’s Texas Tech team knocked off Sparty 61–51 in a gritty battle. Tonight’s game might not be played in the mud like that one — the total is set at 145.5 — but both teams still hang their hats on defense.

Ole Miss is the more skilled offensive team, shooting 35% from deep on the season compared to Michigan State’s 31%. The Spartans thrive in transition (3rd nationally in fast break points per game), crash the offensive glass (19th in OReb%), and get to the line (44th in FTA/FGA).

But Michigan State is prone to some brutal offensive stretches, especially in the first half. When they’re not getting to the line or creating second-chance looks, things can get ugly. Freshman guard Jase Richardson is their lone reliable bailout option in those halfcourt grinds.

Ole Miss is well-equipped to limit transition and force tough shots. The Rebels are 21st in KenPom defensive efficiency, and they rank 3rd nationally in offensive turnover rate — meaning very few live-ball turnovers or easy runouts for Sparty. Their weaknesses? Defensive rebounding (226th in DReb%) and foul rate (317th in FTA/FGA allowed).

Those are areas Michigan State can exploit, on paper, but I trust a Chris Beard team to show up with a plan to battle on the glass. And if you look at their résumé, Ole Miss has impressed against teams that like to push pace.

They held Louisville to 63 and Alabama to 64 — both on the road — and just beat UNC while allowing 64 again. Against glass-crashing teams, they’ve shown grit too: a one-point loss to Texas A&M (held them to 63), Georgia scored just 51, and they beat Tennessee.

Offensively, Ole Miss has six guys who can get a bucket. They’re clicking right now and lighting it up from deep (19-39 through these first two tourney games), and I expect them to be able to hit the ~70-point mark which is likely all they need to win. Malik Dia and Jaemyn Brakefield are two of the most skilled and unique bigs in the country, and they could be matchup nightmares for Michigan State’s frontcourt.

Bonus factor: this game is in Atlanta — a much shorter trip from Oxford than East Lansing — and that will likely be reflected in the crowd.

To me, it boils down to whether Ole Miss can keep Michigan State off the offensive glass and out of transition. I think Beard has the more talented team, and one that’s better equipped to score consistently. I like their chances to grind it out and pull the upset. Strong leans towards the 1H and full game under as well.

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Pick

• Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Ole Miss vs. Michigan State odds

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