Texas vs. South Carolina Prediction: Can Longhorns Upset Gamecocks in Women's SEC Championship?
The Women's college basketball SEC Championship will air on Sunday afternoon as the 3rd-ranked Texas Longhorns take on the top ranked South Carolina Gamecocks in Greenville. Can Madison Booker and the Horns keep it close in this tightly-contested rematch? Peter Alexis breaks down the Texas vs. South Carolina prediction for the SEC Championship on Sunday, March 8th.
Peter Alexis - March 8, 2026, 12:55 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadTexas vs. South Carolina Prediction: Can Longhorns Get Even Against Dawn Staley, Gamecocks in SEC Title Game?
The SEC Women’s Basketball Tournament championship brings another chapter in one of the sport’s most intense emerging rivalries as No. 3 seed Texas (30-3) faces No. 1 seed South Carolina (32-2) on Sunday afternoon in Greenville. The Gamecocks enter as 3.5-point favorites, looking to capture a fourth consecutive SEC Tournament title under legendary coach Dawn Staley.
These teams have become extremely familiar with one another over the past two seasons. Sunday’s championship will mark the seventh meeting between the programs in that span, including multiple postseason clashes. South Carolina has often had the edge in those biggest moments, but Texas has proven it can compete toe-to-toe with the nation’s top program, setting the stage for what could be another defensive battle.
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Texas vs. South Carolina Odds
Texas vs. South Carolina Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 8th, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
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Texas vs. South Carolina Prediction
South Carolina’s Postseason Dominance
South Carolina’s reputation as a postseason powerhouse is well earned. Under Dawn Staley, the Gamecocks have dominated SEC tournament play and enter Sunday with a chance to win their fourth straight conference tournament championship.
Even more telling is Staley’s remarkable track record against Texas coach Vic Schaefer in the postseason. Staley owns an 8-0 postseason record against Schaefer, including five SEC Tournament championship wins and three NCAA Tournament victories dating back to Schaefer’s time at Mississippi State. That historical edge has been a major factor in why the Gamecocks remain favorites despite Texas’ elite season.
Texas Has Played the Gamecocks Tight
Despite South Carolina’s postseason dominance, the actual matchups between the teams have been extremely competitive. Earlier this season on January 15, Texas pushed South Carolina to the limit before falling 68-65 in Columbia, proving they can compete in hostile environments.
Texas also has a recent victory in the rivalry, beating South Carolina 66-64 in November. That result demonstrated that Vic Schaefer’s defensive system can frustrate the Gamecocks, especially when Texas controls tempo and forces a half-court game. With another defensive battle expected Sunday, the +3.5 spread reflects just how tight oddsmakers expect the matchup to be.
Pseudo Home Court Advantage for South Carolina
While the championship game technically sits on neutral ground, the location strongly favors South Carolina. The contest takes place at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina, which effectively gives the Gamecocks a pseudo home environment.
South Carolina fans traditionally pack the building for SEC Tournament games, creating one of the most hostile atmospheres in women’s college basketball. That advantage has played a major role in the program’s recent tournament dominance and could again tilt the edge toward the Gamecocks in a tight championship matchup.
Texas vs. South Carolina Best Bet
Betting Lean: Texas +3.5 (-122) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Even with South Carolina’s historic success, Texas has consistently proven capable of staying within striking distance. The Longhorns’ elite defense and physical playstyle make them one of the few teams built to challenge the Gamecocks in a low-scoring game.
Texas star Madison Booker, coming off a 31-point performance against Ole Miss, gives the Longhorns the offensive weapon they need to keep this game close. With the teams already playing a three-point game earlier this season, the spread suggests another tight contest.
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