Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso 2 Prediction: Can Shevchenko Reclaim Her Belt at Noche UFC?
Valentina Shevchenko will be trying to reclaim her belt against the woman who took it from her, Alexa Grasso this Saturday. Can she reclaim her belt at Noche UFC? Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - September 16, 2023, 11:30 AM EDT
7 minValentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso 2 Prediction: Can Shevchenko Reclaim Her Belt at Noche UFC?
Valentina Shevchenko will be trying to repeat the success of Amanda Nunes and Israel Adesnya when she steps into the octagon to try and reclaim her belt against the woman who took it from her in March, Alexa Grasso. While Nunes and Adesanya were able to immediately reclaim their belts, other fighters like Kamaru Usman and Max Holloway did not have the same fate. Shevchenko will look to be with the two former names rather than the latter, and she is favored at -166 on DraftKings to do so.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso 2 Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 16, 2023
- Game Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso 2 Prediction
This fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso is a testament to the unpredictability of MMA. Shevchenko, at 35, might be slowly approaching the latter end of her career, but her previous reign as champion has proved she is one of the best women's fighters of all time. Despite her age, she remains an elite fighter, but the odds have sharply fallen since her first encounter with Grasso.
Depending on your book, Shevchenko was around an -850 favorite in the first fight, an insane line you do not see often in UFC fights. Grasso pulled off the biggest upset of the year based on the odds, and now the line is just -166 in favor of Shevchenko in the rematch. That is one of the craziest back-to-back line changes for an immediate rematch I can remember, but is it an overreaction?
In their first fight, before Grasso countered Shevchenko's spinning kick, the champion was in control. Grasso discovered a hole in Shevchenko's game and exploited it to perfection, resulting in her capturing the title. But up until that point near the end of the fourth round, Shevchenko was clearly in control. Shevchenko was up two rounds to one on all three scorecards and was likely ahead in the fourth, which means she would have won a decision no matter what if she lasted 30 more seconds. But she didn't, and Grasso got the belt, but it still makes me raise an eyebrow at how big the line has dropped on Shevchenko when she was ahead in the first fight. Is Shevchenko going to make that same mistake? I highly doubt it.
Valentina Shevchenko's grappling expertise was on full display in their first encounter. She secured four takedowns and spent over a round in control. Despite getting submitted after making a mistake with her spinning kick, Shevchenko was and is the better grappler between the two. She has dominant top control and can spend minutes point fighting on the mat. She was also ahead on the striking, landing 87 significant strikes to Grasso's 59. She doubled her up on head strikes.
If Grasso wants to win the rematch, she has to defend takedowns and make Shevchenko the aggressor. Shevchenko is excellent off her back foot and will use her opponent's offense to initiate grappling exchanges, which she almost always wins. If she can do this? Sure, maybe she can pull off another upset, but Shevchenko is still just too good.
After Shevchenko went to a split decision with Taila Santos and then lost to Alexa Grasso, I think people are too quick to write her off and just say she is "old" now. She is only 35, and she really hasn't taken much damage in her career. Shevchenko is still the greatest UFC flyweight of all time, even after her loss to Grasso. After so many title defenses, I'm wondering if Shevchenko got a little complacent at the top, but any of that feeling is gone now that she has the fire of this rematch. If anything, her loss to Grasso has only re-ignited her champion-like flame that made her so good to begin with. I expect Shevchenko to come out tomorrow night and remind us who the greatest women's flyweight of all time is, and at these odds, Yes, please. Shevchenko was -850 in the spring and is now -166 against the same fighter. It's almost like we're getting an odds boost on Shevchenko this time around.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso 2 Pick
Pick: Valentina Shevchenko ML -166 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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