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Renato Moicano and Drew Dober are set to face off at UFC Vegas 85 this weekend. Can Drew Dober pull the upset at UFC Fight Night? Ben Rajavuori breaks down Saturday's UFC co-main event.

Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober Prediction: Can Dober Pull Upset at UFC Fight Night?

The co-main event of UFC Vegas 85 features two talented lightweights in Drew Dober and Renato Moicano. Renato Moicano is a submission specialist who has won three of his last four fights, with the lone loss coming to Rafael Dos Anjos, and the three wins all coming by submission. Drew is the opposite, as he loves to hit hard and end fights quickly. Dober is also hot coming into this fight, winning four of his last five fights, all by knockout. The lone loss was a knockout loss to Matt Frevola. Drew Dober is currently ranked number 15 at lightweight and Renato Moicano is number 13, meaning with a win, Drew Dober can surpass Moicano in the rankings and get that much closer to the top 10. However, Dober is a decently sized underdog to do so as he is +155.


  • Date: February 3, 2024
  • Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Drew Dober vs. Renato Moicano Prediction

Renato Moicano enters this fight with a 17-5–1 record. Moicano is 9–5 in his 14 fights in the UFC, and six of those wins have come by submission. Moicano trains at American Top Team and employs a very slick and talented submission game. If he gets to your back, it’s over. Moicano has attempted to modify his striking and improve over the years in the UFC, but he is still much better on the ground than he is on the feet. The knock on Moicano is that he is rather hittable and he does not take punches well. Renato Moicano has been knocked out three times in the last eight fights with those losses coming to Rafael Fiziev, Chan Sung Jung, and Jose Aldo. While his striking defense has slightly improved, His chin has been tested quite a few times, and if he is hit cleanly, he goes down. Unfortunately, he’s fighting a very hard striker in Drew Dober. Drew Dober enters his fight with a 27–12 record, with 15 of those wins coming by knockout. Drew Dober has been in the UFC for a long time now, almost 10 years, and while he had a rocky start, his striking has seriously improved. He has polished his striking to the point where all seven of his last wins inside the UFC have all come by knockout, with four of them coming in the first round. Dober is an extremely aggressive striker, who looks to end fights with one punch, but at the same time, does not overextend himself, and takes very smart shots and combinations. Dober will have to be mindful of the takedown in this fight, as Renato Moicano will surely be looking to end this fight on the ground. I am taking Dober in this fight, as he is the more powerful striker and can test that chin that has plagued the losses of Moicano more recently. If Dober can be mindful of the takedown attempts and keep this fight on the feet, he should win the striking exchanges, and be able to find the chin at least once in this fight, which may be all it takes. Given that he is a decently sized underdog, I am willing to take him in this fight at a great price.

Drew Dober vs. Renato Moicano Pick

Pick: Drew Dober ML +155 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds


Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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