Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC Winnipeg Odds
Two welterweights at very different points in their careers headline UFC Fight Night 273 tonight in Winnipeg. Gilbert Burns, a former title challenger and four-time BJJ world champion, walks into the Canada Life Centre at 39 years old riding a four-fight losing streak, with his last win coming over three years ago. Mike Malott, a surging 34-year-old Canadian fighting on home soil for the first time as a headliner, enters as a heavy favorite. The question is whether Burns' grappling pedigree and hard-earned experience are enough to hold off Malott's physical advantages and a sold-out crowd behind him. Jack Borovitz breaks down this Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott best bet for UFC Fight Night 273.
Jack Borovitz - April 18, 2026, 2:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadGilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC Winnipeg Odds for April 18th Main Event
That is what makes this matchup worth watching. Burns is one of the most decorated grapplers in UFC welterweight history, a four-time BJJ world champion and former title challenger, but he walks in at 39 years old on a four-fight skid with real questions about his durability. Malott is the bigger, younger Canadian fighter stepping into his first UFC main event on home soil in front of a sold-out crowd. The market leans heavily toward Malott, and the real debate is not whether he wins but how long Burns can hold him off.
Burns has not won a fight since April 2023, sitting at 22-9 overall. His four consecutive losses came against Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, Sean Brady, and Michael Morales, opponents with a combined record of 79-10 near the top of the welterweight rankings. None of those fights were close, and two ended by stoppage. The Morales knockout last May carried extra weight: Burns dealt with severe concussion symptoms through late June, and durability is a legitimate concern heading into tonight.
Malott comes in at 13-2-1 and is clearly the fresher fighter. His last three wins included a TKO of Kevin Holland, a submission of Trevin Giles, and a knockout of Charles Radtke, showing range as a finisher. His lone UFC loss came against Neil Magny in a fight where he gassed badly down the stretch, and five-round conditioning is the one question mark hanging over tonight. This is Malott's biggest moment, and the home crowd at the Canada Life Centre is going to make sure he feels it.
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Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Odds
- Moneyline: Burns (+235), Malott (-275)
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, April 18th, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
Click here for complete Burns vs. Malott odds
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Prediction
About 66% of bets are sitting on Malott, and that tracks. He is bigger, younger, and fighting at home. The handle is closer, though, which tells you sharper money has more respect for Burns than the public does. Burns still carries submission defense that nobody in the UFC has ever cracked, and Malott's path to a finish runs straight through the clinch and grappling exchanges. Burns has spent a career neutralizing wrestlers at the highest level, and that skill set does not disappear at 39.
Malott's clearest path is volume and pressure across multiple rounds, not a first-round blitz. He fights in calculated bursts, and two of his last three wins went to decision, so this is not a man who steamrolls veterans early. Burns can survive long enough to make rounds competitive, but the physical advantages in size and reach are real, and after back-to-back stoppages and a documented concussion, his chin is not the safest investment. This fight runs into the third round at minimum, and the over is where the value lives.
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Pick
- Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
Malott is built for attrition, not blitzes, and Burns is the kind of crafty veteran who can weather early pressure long enough to make this a long night. Those two facts push this past two rounds regardless of who wins. At -105, the over is the cleanest bet on the board tonight, whether Malott earns a late stoppage midway through round three or grinds this out on the scorecards.
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