New Mexico State vs. UMass Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Defense Dominate Again in 2023?
UMass Minutemen will travel to face the New Mexico State Aggies in a matchup between independent FBS schools in Week 0 to kick off the 2023 FBS season. Will defense dominate this game again in 2023? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay returns with his prediction and pick.
Matt MacKay - August 21, 2023, 9:38 AM EDT
7 minNew Mexico State vs. UMass Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Defense Dominate Again in 2023?
Week 0 of the 2023 NCAAF season kicks off with a matchup in Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico, between the University of Massachusetts Minutemen versus the New Mexico State Aggies.
It was a long season for UMass in 2022, losing nine consecutive games to end their season on a significant win drought following their lone 20-3 victory against Stony Brook in Week 3. The Minutemen will get an early chance to avenge their disastrous campaign from a year ago when they travel to face a fellow independent school, New Mexico State, in a matchup that could be a bit tighter than it appears on paper.
Right now, the Minutemen are heavy road underdogs at +250, especially since no head coaching changes were made following their 1-11 season from a year ago. New Mexico State, meanwhile, overcame four straight losses to open their 2022 season, winning five of their last six regular season games to wind up in the Quick Lane Bowl against Bowling Green, winning 24-19 to finish one game above .500.
Will the Minutemen be able to pull off an early-season upset on the road on Saturday night?
Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday's game between the Massachusetts Minutemen vs. New Mexico State Aggies.
New Mexico State vs. UMass Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Saturday, August 26, 2023
- Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
New Mexico State vs. UMass Odds
- Spread: UMass +7.5 (-105), New Mexico State -7.5 (-115)
- Total Odds: Under 44.5 (-110), Over 44.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: UMass (+250), New Mexico State (-315)
New Mexico State vs. UMass Injury Report
UMass
Questionable: RB Tim Baldwin Jr. (Undisclosed)
Out: N/A
New Mexico State
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
New Mexico State vs. UMass Prediction
UMass runs a multiple pro-style offensive scheme under head coach Don Brown, which resulted in their offense ranking dead last (131st) in points per game, averaging 12.5 points. The Minutemen also surrendered over 31 points per game, which ranked in the bottom 100 of the FBS. There's little else that needs to be said about how awful the 2022 season was for UMass. The question now becomes whether or not they have built depth and added enough personnel to compete against the Aggies under the lights in a cross-country road game.
Despite not playing well for the majority of 2022, UMass had one of its best outings against New Mexico State, holding the Aggies' offense under 25 points, which only happened in four games for the Minutemen last season. New Mexico State fell down 10-0 until they mounted a comeback in the final six minutes of the first half, with senior quarterback Diego Pavia launching a 39-yard touchdown pass to wideout Kay'ron Adams to even the score.
Pavia returns in Jerry Kill's spread option offense while adding junior wideout transfer Reggie Akles into the wide receiving corps. Brady Olson, UMass' quarterback last year, has been replaced by redshirt junior transfer Taisun Phommachanh, who previously spent time in the ACC at Georgia Tech and Clemson.
There were five field goals compared to three touchdowns in this matchup a year ago, including a 66-yard touchdown run by UMass running back Kay'Ron Adams, who returns as the RB1 within a revamped offense, adding two additional receivers alongside Phommachanh in the backfield. Both teams have made notable improvements to their personnel.
Since the Aggies ranked top 50 in points allowed per game (47th) in 2022, allowing an average of 23.9, combined with UMass, who will be adjusting to new offensive pieces taking over literally the worst offense in the FBS, the best bet to place in this Week 0 matchup feels like under 44.5 total points at -110 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. These two teams combined for 36 total points in 2022, and I expect another physical, low-scoring contest in Las Cruces on Saturday night.
New Mexico State vs. UMass Pick
- Under 44.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
College Football Odds
