Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can J.J. McCarthy, Wolverines Put Up Points?
Indiana takes on Michigan this Saturday during the early afternoon NCAAF slate. Can J.J. McCarthy and the Wolverines put up points? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay shares his prediction and pick for Michigan vs. Indiana.
Matt MacKay - October 9, 2023, 5:16 PM EDT
7 minIndiana vs. Michigan Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can J.J. McCarthy, Wolverines Put Up Points?
The upcoming matchup between Michigan and Indiana is so lopsided, oddsmakers are refusing to even put out moneyline odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. That's right, we're seeing Michigan lay -33.5 ATS during their return to Ann Arbor following a two-week road trip. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Blake Corum form a dynamic duo in the backfield, playing behind one of the top offensive line units in the FBS.
Indiana gave Ohio State some trouble early in their matchup back in Week 1, however, the Hoosiers are under .500, barely beat Akron, and were just handled by Maryland during their last game played. There aren't a ton of bright spots offensively, as Indiana is averaging 3.2 YPC and has committed at least one turnover in four consecutive games played.
Insert Michigan, which is the top-ranked defense in all of college football, holding opponents to an impressive 6.7 points per game. They've demolished Nebraska and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks, relying on a mixture of an old school rushing attack, opening up the passing game, while McCarthy's dual-threat ability forces defenders into making bad decisions. The Wolverines offense has yet to score less than 30 points this season and Indiana's defense may be biting off too much than it can chew, despite holding every team its faced, minus Maryland, to 27 points or less.
NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest prediction and pick to wager for Michigan vs. Indiana in Week 7.
Indiana vs. Michigan Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023
- Game Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Where To Watch: FOX
Indiana vs. Michigan Odds
- Spread: Michigan -33.5 (-110), Indiana +33.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 47.5 (-110), Over 47.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: N/A
Indiana vs. Michigan Injury Report
Indiana
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Michigan
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction
34 points is quite a massive spread to cover, even if you are one of the top teams in the country. Still, Michigan has had no problem covering big spreads each of the last two games they've played on the road. Now, back in the Big House in front of its fan base, expect the same blend of tough, physical running mixed with deep shots downfield to top wideout Roman Wilson.
Indiana did pull off the outright upset as a four-point underdog ATS back in 2020, but they now find themselves +33.5 ATS. This indicates that oddsmakers have little faith in the Hoosiers to put up much of a fight. It may take some time, or we've seen Michigan dominant the line of scrimmage right from the first snap. Either way, there's a reason why Indiana's moneyline odds aren't listed.
Four of Michigan's six games played have gone under the point total line, which is set to 47.5. Last week, it looked like they were going to hit the under until the Wolverine offense began pouring it on in the third quarter, scoring three touchdowns and adding a fourth in the final quarter to rout Minnesota 52-10. Conversely, Indiana fell behind 27-3 at half time against Maryland, who looked competitive against Ohio State in Week 6 until half time, when the Buckeyes kicked it into a new gear.
As much of a mismatch as this game will be, taking Michigan to cover -33.5 ATS is extremely bold. Indiana's defense isn't bad against the pass, allowing a 58.8 percent completion rate, but its run defense will be the achilles heel. The Hoosiers are surrendering 4.7 YPC and at least two rushing touchdowns in each of their last three games played, meaning the Wolverines will have no problem chewing up clock and ripping off big run plays to control the flow of the game.
It's a bit risky, but under 47.5 is a good play in this game. The Hoosiers won't be scoring more than 7-10 points, while Michigan may wind up with 30-35 points if they cannot get their passing attack going against an underrated Indiana secondary. Both previous head-to-head matchups went under 48 total points, so let's put a unit on the under to cash after Michigan went over in Week 6 against Minnesota for just the second time this season.
Indiana vs. Michigan Pick
- Under 47.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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