West Virginia vs. Houston Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
West Virginia is coming off a huge upset win in which they went into TCU and won straight up as nearly two touchdown underdogs. Can I bring the same intensity tonight on the road against Houston? Let’s break it down.
Joey Ruiz - October 12, 2023, 3:24 PM EDT
7 minWest Virginia vs. Houston Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
West Virginia is flying under the radar a bit as they are 4-1 now on the season with their only loss coming in Week 1 to Penn State who is ranked in the top ten and undefeated in their own right.
West Virginia vs. Houston Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 12, 2023
- Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where To Watch: FS1
West Virginia vs. Houston Odds
- Spread: West Virginia -3 (-110), Houston +3 (-105)
- Total Odds: O/U 50 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: West Virginia (-148), Houston(+135)
West Virginia vs. Houston Prediction
The Mountaineers have been getting it done with their exceptional play on defense as they allowed just sic points to Pitt, 13 points to Texas Tech, and 21 points to TCU across their last three games, which were all victories. In those three games, West Virginia allowed an average of just 321 yards per game which is pretty solid when you consider how well the Texas Tech and TCU offensive units have looked at various times this season.
West Virginia has been a bend but don't break defense as they have actually been outgained over those last three games 965 to 810. The West Virginia defense is ranked sixth in the nation in defensive third down conversion percentage as teams are only converting 27% of their third downs against the Mountaineers this season.
West Virginia has also been one of the best red zone defenses as they are ranked 23rd in the nation in that category as their opponents are only scoring on 73% of their drives into the red zone against this WVU defense. If not for the Mountaineers above average defense, they may very well be winless against FBS opponents this season because they have been dreadful on offense.
They have also had quite a bit of luck go their way as TCU went 0-3 on field goals in their three-point loss to WVU last week. On the season to this point, West Virginia is ranked 124th in total yards per game (279), 125th in yards per play (4.3), and 125th in third down offensive conversion rate (29%). They have been trying to establish an identity on the ground by running the football consistently as they are ranked ninth in the FBS in rushes per game (44) but are not having much success as they are ranked 91st in yards per carry (3.7) and 49th in rushing yards per game. Their passing attack has not been much better, and they actually very rarely pass the ball as there are only three teams in the nation who throw the ball less than West Virginia.
On the other side, Houston's defense has been slightly below average this season but this could be an all world's collide spot for some positive regression for Houston and negative regression for West Virginia. The Cougars outgained Texas Teas Tech 489-400, did not commit a single turnover, had five more total first downs, and converted 60% of their first downs and yet still lost by three touchdowns. That is an extreme anomaly of a game and is an indication to me that they are playing better than their final scored indicate.
Houston's opening game against UTSA is a very similar game to this one tonight in regards to the matchup/line/and spot. UTSA were short road favorites with an experienced quarterback, much like West Virginia with quarterback Garrett Greene. UTSA was able to run the ball effectively but was unable to move the ball effectively through the air as Frank Harris only threw for 209 yards on 50% passing with three interceptions. UTSA was also 4-13 on third downs in the game and I also foresee West Virginia struggling to convert on third downs tonight as well.
This should be a very low scoring and grind it out type of game due to the styles of both teams and I do expect Houston to have some positive regression. With that being said, I am rolling with HOUSTON +3 at -105 for 1.5u and the Full Game Under 50 at -108 for 1.5u as I think Houston pulls out a close and low scoring victory tonight at home.
West Virginia vs. Houston Pick
- 1.5u Houston +3 -105 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- 1.5u Full Game Under 50 -108 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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