Texas vs. Houston Prediction, Pick, Odds: Expect Quinn Ewers, Longhorns To Take Control
On Saturday afternoon the Longhorns take on the Cougars. Should you expect Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns to take control in this Big 12 matchup. NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay gives his prediction and pick for Texas vs. Houston.
Matt MacKay - October 16, 2023, 9:45 AM EDT
7 minTexas vs. Houston Prediction, Pick, Odds: Expect Quinn Ewers, Longhorns To Take Control
Houston is fresh off of an improbable last-second win over West Virginia, completing a Hail Mary right after the Mountaineers scored within the final minute of the game, improving to 3-3 this season. The Cougars will host a disgruntled Texas Longhorns team in Week 8, whose last game played resulted in a last-second loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl in Week 6.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian won't let his team forget about that loss, while the Cougars are riding an emotional high following their comeback win over a mediocre West Virginia team. It makes for an intriguing matchup, as Houston is a whopping +22.5 ATS home underdog. Oddsmakers clearly feel that Quinn Ewers and the rest of the Longhorns' offense will be too much for Houston's 108th-ranked defense to handle.
There isn't much of a head-to-head history between these two Lone Star opponents. Houston recently joined the Big 12 conference, while Texas is in the final year of its contract with the Big 12, before joining the SEC in 2024. Will Ewers and the Longhorns make quick work of Houston in a late afternoon conference matchup on the road? Or will Houston and head coach Dana Holgorsen execute a game plan good enough to stay competitive against the nation's No. 8-ranked team? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his latest prediction and pick between Texas vs. Houston ahead of Saturday's Big 12 matchup.
Texas vs. Houston Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 21, 2023
- Game Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Texas vs. Houston Odds
- Spread: Texas -22.5 (-110), Houston +22.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 61.5 (-105), Over 61.5 (-115)
- Moneyline Odds: Texas (-2100), Houston (+1000)
Texas vs. Houston Injury Report
Texas
Questionable: DB Ryan Watts (Lower Body)
Out: OL Jake Majors (Ankle), OL Cole Hutson (Knee), DL Kristopher Ross (Undisclosed)
Houston
Questionable: WR Joshua Cobbs (Undisclosed)
Out: DL Noah Guzman (Undisclosed), WR C.J. Nelson (Leg)
Texas vs. Houston Prediction
We've seen Sarkisian rely on his ground game to get wins over inferior opponents like Baylor and Kansas, recording eight rushing touchdowns across these two wins before losing to Oklahoma. The Sooners managed to hold the Longhorns' rushing attack at bay for the most part, allowing only one rushing touchdown and a 3.9 YPC average while facing 40 rushing attempts.
Houston's defense is anything but reliable when it comes to stopping an opponent's rushing attack. The Cougars have allowed six rushing touchdowns across their last two games, while also surrendering 39 and 49 points respectively. Houston relies on its passing attack to stay competitive, as quarterback Donovan Smith has completed over 73 percent of his pass attempts in three straight games. He's also a capable runner when called upon, but the Cougars prefer to use Parker Jenkins as their de facto RB1, averaging over 5.0 YPC and three rushing touchdowns this season.
Texas will need to contain Smith and the Cougars' wideouts, led by Sam Brown, Joseph Manjack IV, and Matthew Golden, who collectively have over 1,100 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. The Longhorns specialize in stopping the pass, allowing only two receiving touchdowns in their past four games played. Even their run defense is legitimate, giving less hope toward Houston's chances of covering +22.5 ATS. Both teams are 3-3 ATS, but Houston's lost by 21 points and 23 points already this season, so a motivated Longhorns team should stifle the Cougars on the road on Saturday afternoon.
Let's throw a unit on the Longhorns to cover -22.5 ATS due to their smothering defense, plus the mismatch Texas has on offense against Houston's bottom-tier defense.
Texas vs. Houston Pick
- Texas -22.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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