UCF vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Dillon Gabriel, Sooners Continue to Roll?
UCF and Oklahoma face off in an early Big 12 matchup in NCAAF Week 8 this Saturday. Will Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners continue to roll? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay shares his UCF vs. Oklahoma prediction.
Matt MacKay - October 16, 2023, 9:31 AM EDT
7 minUCF vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Dillon Gabriel, Sooners Continue to Roll?
A noon kickoff between UCF and Oklahoma gives us an early Big 12 matchup to watch in Week 8. The Knights and Sooners are two teams trending in much different directions. Oklahoma is off a Bye after beating its rival, Texas, ending the Longhorns' undefeated streak, while the Sooners remain 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS.
Led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel and second-year head coach Brent Venables, the Sooners are now ranked No. 6 in the country and could rack up points in a mismatch at home against UCF. The Knights, after starting 3-0, are now 3-3, losing three straight games, surrendering 36-51 points in each of these losses. The offense has managed to average 35 points per game under head coach Guz Malzahn, led by quarterback Timmy McClain and running back R.J. Harvey, but its defense is a huge liability, especially against the run.
Oklahoma's offense can attack in multiple different ways, but Gabriel is highly effective as a ball carrier, which he demonstrated during the Sooners' win over Texas. Now, he gets a plus-matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the FBS, which is a big reason for oddsmakers making UCF +18.5 ATS in this matchup.
Can UCF score enough points to stay competitive in a shootout on the road in Norman? Or will the Sooners continue where they left off, using a combination of Gabriel, Tawee Walker, and Marcus Major in its backfield to constantly stay ahead of schedule against the Knights? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest prediction and pick for UCF vs. Oklahoma during Saturday's noon kickoff in Week 8.
UCF vs. Oklahoma Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 21, 2023
- Game Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
UCF vs. Oklahoma Odds
- Spread: UCF +18.5 (-110), Oklahoma -18.5 (-110),
- Total Odds: Under 63.5 (-110), Over 63.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: UCF (+720), Oklahoma (-1200)
UCF vs. Oklahoma Injury Report
UCF
Questionable: QB John Rhys Plumlee (Knee)
Out: N/A
Oklahoma
Questionable: WR Andrel Anthony (Knee)
Out: DB Justin Harrington (Knee), DB Jayden Rowe (Undisclosed), LB Phil Picciotti (Undisclosed)
UCF vs. Oklahoma Prediction
Let's start with UCF. The Knights are 2-4 ATS this season, however, they have cashed overs at a steady rate, going 5-1 for overs on point total lines through six games played. Their offense can move the ball, scoring at least two receiving touchdowns in four straight games, while also averaging 6.0 YPC and 14 rushing touchdowns.
The Sooners' defense has yet to allow an opponent to score more than 30 points, while its managed to hold everyone, excluding Texas, to 20 points or less this season. Oklahoma started its season preventing a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games, while its pass defense is tough but allows big plays on occasion, which is why they allow only a 59.7 percent completion rate. Overall, Oklahoma's defense benefits from Venables' tenure as DC at Clemson during their Championship run, while its offense has Dillon Gabriel leading the way, averaging a 73.3 percent completion rate and recording over 2,000 passing yards and 18 touchdowns through the air.
The over has been consistent for both teams this season, combining to go 9-3 in 12 games between both opponents thus far. Oklahoma should be able to slow UCF down, as Kansas managed to hold them to 22 points, the second-lowest point total the Knights have finished with since an 18-16 win over Boise State in Week 2. However, 63.5 is a lot of points, while the obvious play stares us right in the face.
Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS, which is a feat few other teams can claim this season. Factor in UCF's lackluster run defense, combined with Oklahoma's stout defense, and this game has all the makings of the Sooners covering -18.5 ATS. Sure, Oklahoma has looked underwhelming at times this season, beating Cincinnati 20-6 and SMU 28-11, but that was before beating Iowa State 50-20 and coming back to beat Texas in the biggest game of the season. The confidence Gabriel and the rest of the Sooners' offense will possess entering this game, which will be at home in Norman, makes Oklahoma -18.5 a two-unit wager we need to place.
UCF vs. Oklahoma Pick
- Oklahoma -18.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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