Tennessee vs. Missouri Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Tigers Slow Down Joe Milton, Volunteers?
Tennessee vs. Missouri Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Tigers Slow Down Joe Milton, Volunteers?
One of the marquee matchups in Week 11 features two SEC programs colliding at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri, as the No. 16 Missouri Tigers host the No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday's late afternoon slate.
Recent matchups have been overwhelmingly lopsided in Tennessee's favor, as the Vols are 4-1 SU in their last five games against Mizzou. However, this is a different Tennessee team compared to the one we watched last year with Hendon Hooker at quarterback. The Vols' QB1, Joe Milton, is still not making the correct reads or decisions in the pocket, despite possessing one of the strongest arms in the FBS.
In order to win, Tennessee relies on a heavy dose of running the football, cycling between Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson at running back. Missouri surely won't be phased after competing with Georgia on the road, winding up as a 30-21 loss, the Tigers' second outright defeat this season. Mizzou is led by quarterback Brady Cook, who is completing over 67 percent of his passes for over 2,400 yards and 16 touchdowns, while using his mobility to be the Tigers' de facto RB2 behind Cody Schrader.
Tennessee's defense is complimentary to its offense, unlike previous seasons, holding teams to 18.4 points per game, allowing the Vols' offense to mount long drives that bleed clock and wind up in the end zone. Road losses to Florida and Alabama are the only marks that stain Tennessee's record heading into another difficult road environment in Week 11.
NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest prediction and pick for Tennessee vs. Missouri.
Tennessee vs. Missouri Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Tennessee vs. Missouri Odds
- Spread: Tennessee -1.5 (-110), Missouri +1.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 59.5 (-115), Over 59.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Tennessee (-120), Missouri (+100)
Tennessee vs. Missouri Injury Report
Tennessee
Questionable: RB Jabari Small (Undisclosed)
Out: RB DeSean Bishop (Ankle), DB Kamal Hadden (Shoulder), DB Christian Charles (Ankle), WR Bru McCoy (Ankle), LB Kwauze Garland (Undisclosed)
Missouri
Questionable: LB Chad Bailey (Undisclosed)
Out: DB Shamar McNeil (Undisclosed)
Tennessee vs. Missouri Prediction
Both of these teams have been profitable ATS, entering Week 11 6-3 ATS. Point total overs have also been a consistent theme, as the Tigers and Vols have been involved in high-scoring contests. Missouri is averaging 32. 4 points per game this season, and there's been an average of 55.6 points per game recorded when the Tigers play at Faurot Field in 2023.
Mizzou has increasingly turned to its rushing attack to sustain long, methodical drives, along with plenty of aggressive passes to top wideouts Luther Burden and Theo Wease. Tennessee's defensive weakness is against opposing passing games, allowing Kentucky to complete 71 percent of its attempts a couple of weeks ago for over 372 passing yards and two touchdowns. The run defense is much more consistent for the Vols, who will look to eliminate Schrader and Cook from being effective ball carriers.
Milton will need to make some big time throws if Tennessee wants to hang around and win this football game. He's been playing a lot more clean football lately, as the Volunteers' offense hasn't committed a turnover in two weeks. Granted, this came against Kentucky and UConn, but it's still encouraging for Tennessee bettors to see.
The point total line is set to 59.5 at most sportsbooks. This seems to be the perfect number, as Mizzou has totaled 59 points in two of its past five games played. Tennessee has also bounced between 54 and 61 points in four of its past five games, so this will be a sweat until the very end. Instead of diving into the point total line, let's invest in Missouri coming off of a hardly-fought road loss to Georgia. The Tigers offense can move the ball effectively in multiple different ways, while Tennessee's rushing attack carries the load for the Volunteers offense. Missouri has allowed just 3.6 YPC and five total rushing touchdowns this season, plus the Tigers are also healthier on offense.
We're staking two units on Missouri's moneyline at even odds, taking the +100 moneyline odds all the way to the counter.
Tennessee vs. Missouri Pick
- Missouri Moneyline (+100) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.