Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Football Team Player Prop Prediction: Getting Great Value With an Under

The Las Vegas Raiders are hosting the Washington Football Team in Week 13. Here's an under on a player prop that you don't want to miss out on.
Josh Gayle |
Thu, December 2, 1:29 AM EST | 4 min read
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Football Team Player Prop Prediction: Getting Great Value With an Under

Here lie two middle-of-the-pack teams with playoff hopes still alive.

This game projects to be close and will surely be a significant test for each team. Anyone who knows me knows that I am an over enthusiast when it comes to prop bets. This week, I join the dark side. Here’s what we’ve got.

Click here for complete Raiders vs. WFT betting odds

Derek Carr Under 36.5 Passing Attempts (-120)

Available at DraftKings at time of writing

I’m going to start off by addressing all of the potential concerns with this bet. Derek Carr averages 37.5 pass attempts per game and WFT allows the 10th-most pass attempts per game. Now that we got that out of the way, let's focus on the positives and give context to those stats to make you feel comfortable betting on this prop for Sunday's contest.

First off, although WFT allows the 10th-most pass attempts to passers, that number is largely in part to their early-season numbers. Over the last 5 weeks, they haven’t allowed a single quarterback to surpass this number, and they have faced off versus elite competition. They limited both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady to less than 35 attempts, which is not an easy accomplishment. Brady was actually held to a season-low in attempts. During that stretch, Washington is only allowing 30.6 attempts to the position.

So why is that?

You could just chalk up the newfound success on the defensive adjustments or game scripts, and although I wouldn’t fully disagree, I also believe WFT’s commitment to running the football is making the games quicker and ultimately resulting in fewer possessions for opposing teams. Last week, Seattle only ran 33 plays last week on offense. Deep balls by Wilson were the cause of that (somewhat), but we would be foolish to not acknowledge how WFT ran the ball 43 times that game. When a team is running that much, it will be tough for the opposing team to throw the ball 37+ times.

WFT is surely becoming a run-first team, which bodes well for us, but another thing people may overreact to is the fact that Derek Carr is averaging 37.5 attempts per game. Yes, that’s true, but he's been under this 36.5 number in six of his last eight while averaging just over 34 attempts in that span. The first three games of the season for Carr have inflated his attempts number all season and the offense has definitely made some changes in that span.

Lastly, the spread is encouraging. LV comes into this game as field-goal favorites so, hopefully, we’ll be able to see some late-game milking of the clock. Caesars Sportsbook is the only other book at the time of writing I see with this prop and they have it set at 34.5. It's rare to see books differ this heavily on a prop and I think they both settle at 35.5 come Sunday, so hop on and get the extra discount while it’s available.

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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