2023 NFL Draft Betting Picks: Two Bets You Don't Want to Miss for Thursday's First Round
2023 NFL Draft betting picks and predictions for Thursday's first round. The NFL Draft is finally here and that means we need picks for how to bet on it. Handicapper Ben Rajavuori gives us his two best bets for tonight.
Ben Rajavuori - April 27, 2023, 5:15 PM EDT
3 min2023 NFL Draft Betting Picks: Two Bets You Don't Want to Miss for Thursday's First Round
The NFL draft is always a fun betting occasion with the crazy lines you can find on which player will go where and which team will trade their pick where, but at the end of the day, it's all a guess, just like normal sports betting. I'm not interested in many of the crazy lines out there, but there are two bets for the draft tonight that I think are great money-makers at a decent price. Let's take a look.
2023 NFL Draft Date, Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, April 27, 2023
- Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN, NFL Network
2023 NFL Draft Betting Picks
Tennessee Titans Position of First Player Drafted - Quarterback - @ -150 via FanDuel
This line is -180 on DraftKings already, but Fanduel has this at a modest -150 still. A few days ago it was even money, so I'm beating myself up for missing out on that, but this is still a decent price.
The Titans do need an offensive lineman, and that is the next-favored position behind a quarterback, so that is the way this bet would lose, but with the Titan's ability to trade up and willing candidates, it seems more likely to me that the Titans trade up and take one of the top quarterbacks, most likely Will Levis if he is still on the board, or C.J. Stroud, but even Anthony Richardson could be in the mix there. The Titans' most likely spot to trade up to is number five with the Seahawks, and fifth would be good enough to land a top quarterback. Hell, even if they were to ride it out at number 11, they can still most likely get Stroud, but obviously, we have to wait to see how it plays out with 6-10.
The bottom line is that Ryan Tannehill does not seem to be the guy. He's also in the last year of his contract. Yes, the offensive line was terrible blocking for Tannehill, which is why an offensive lineman opened as the favorite for the first position drafted and is currently second, but it would also help to have a more mobile, younger, new-age quarterback like Anthony Richardson. If the Titans trade up, Levis is a good look too, just not as mobile as Richardson.
Minnesota Vikings Position of First Player Drafted - Wide Receiver - @ +200 via FanDuel
Just like the last pick, the line is +175 on Fanduel, but a much better +200 over at DraftKings. The nice thing about the draft props is that books tend to be all over the place with the lines as information spreads and skews lines.
Adam Thielen is off to the Panthers, which leaves the hole of a veteran, reliable set of hands in the Viking's offense. Thielen was the number two receiver behind star Justin Jefferson, which means K.J. Osborn is expected to be number two, which is why I can see the Vikings going for a receiver here. Yes, the Vikings need defensive pieces, as the defense, mainly the secondary, was a big issue last season, but my gut tells me the Vikings will look to grab another star receiver to build a top offense in the league. The Vikings also have a history of loving to grab star receivers in the first round, looking back at Justin Jefferson, Percy Harvin, and Randy Moss.
Also, there will be many great receivers on the board still when the Vikings draft at 23. They can take defense in the later rounds, but the good receivers will be gone. Realistically, maybe only Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be gone, but right behind him are Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison, and both are excellent receivers that would fit in with the Vikings. At least one of those three should still be on the board, and if they are, I expect the Vikings to bite.
There is word out that the Vikings may trade up to take a quarterback, but I do not see that likely at all. Kirk Cousins was not the Viking's problem in the postseason or even during their winning regular season, it was the defense. That being said, the Vikings will look to use this draft to rebuild their defense, and I do not see them trading up for a quarterback. I think they use their first pick for a receiver to fill the hole Thielen left, then use the rest of the draft to build the defense.
2023 NFL Draft Odds
