Giants vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay: Should We Back Elijah Mitchell, Isaiah Hodgins on Thursday Night Football?
Week 3 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Giants and 49ers. Should we back Elijah Mitchel and Isaiah Hodgins on TNF? Ben Rajavuori shares this +708 Giants vs. 49ers same game parlay.
Ben Rajavuori - September 21, 2023, 10:28 AM EDT
7 minGiants vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay: Should We Back Elijah Mitchell, Isaiah Hodgins on Thursday Night Football?
Week 3 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the East Coast Giants and West Coast 49ers. The 49ers have started their season 2-0, to no one's surprise, while the Giants have battled to start 1-1. I have a three-leg parlay for this game from FanDuel that pays out 7.8x your bet, meaning a $100 bet would return $880. Let's get right into it.
Giants vs. 49ers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: September 21, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Giants vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Giants/49ers Over 44 Points
At first glance, this would seem like the Cowboys game in Week 1, where the Giants failed to score a single point, and the game hit 40 total points. However, the Giants are coming into Week 3 after notching a 31-point comeback win over the Cardinals after being down 0-20 at halftime. Sure, that was against the Cardinals, and the 49ers have arguably the best defense in the NFL, but they now have some offensive momentum to build off of. They played the other team that may have the best defense in the NFL (the Cowboys) and scored 0. Does it happen again? I don't think so, even without Saquon Barkley.
It sounds counter-intuitive, but I actually like the over MORE with Saquon out. The Giants will have to rely on Matt Breida for their rushing offense now, and against the 49ers defensive line, that simply will not go well. Daniel Jones will HAVE to pass in this game to score if they want any chance at an upset. The 49er's offense can easily put up 30 in this game, but I actually think the Giants can put up 20 or get close. I expect the Giants will have to put the ball in the air a lot in this game, which either leads to some big plays or, if it's dropped, a stopped clock. Joshua Dobbs put up 28 on the Giants, so I'm not worried about the Niners moving the ball. If the Giants can give us even around 14 points, this over has a good shot at hitting.
Leg 2: Elijah Mitchell Anytime Touchdown
Short weeks can lead to fewer snaps for starting running backs, especially when you play as much as Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey played 100% of snaps in the Week 2 win over the Rams, totaling 20 carries and three receptions for 23 total touches. The expectation is that the 49ers will easily win this game, which they should. If the 49ers are ahead in this game by more than a touchdown, especially in the second half (which is not only possible but likely), we should see more of Elijah Mitchell out of the backup role.
This is simply a play on betting McCaffrey will not play 100% of offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks on short rest playing on Thursday after a Sunday afternoon game, especially in a game with a 10.5-point spread. Mitchell is not a bad running back, and he just plays behind McCaffrey, which is why he has not seen much playing time lately. With Jeff Wilson gone, Mitchell should be getting all the carries behind McCaffrey, except for some to Deebo Samuel. We should see more of McCaffrey in the first half, but don't be surprised if Mitchell gets some red zone carries tomorrow night. McCaffrey is -300 to score, and Mitchell is +260. Simply a value play.
Leg 3: Isaiah Hodgins Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
As I said in my explanation on the over, a negative game script without your starting running back will lead to a lot more passing—the reason I like Hodgins is the matchup. Darius Slayton will be covered by Chevarius Ward for most of the game, and Ward is the best DB on the 49ers. Isaiah Hodgins will be matched up against Deommodore Lenoir for most snaps. Paris Campbell has lined up in the slot for most snaps, but I don't think the Giants will run too many three-wide receiver sets. With how good the 49er's defensive line is, the Giants will likely use more two tight end sets with Waller and Bellinger to help block, leaving Slayton and Hodgins out wide with Ward on Slayton, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Hodgins in this game for big plays.
In the Giant's horrible outing against the Cowboys, Jones only had 104 passing yards, but Hodgins broke off a nice play for 24 yards. Last week, Hodgins had four receptions for 40 yards. I think Hodgins can easily top 30.5 against the 49ers tomorrow night in a passing game script.
Giants vs. 49ers 3-Leg Same Game Parlay (+780)(Bet $100 to collect $880) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Leg 1: Giants/49ers Over 44 Points @ -115
- Leg 2: Elijah Mitchell Anytime Touchdown @ +260
- Leg 3: Isaiah Hodgins Over 30.5 Receiving Yards @ -114
NFL Odds
