Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Will Jerry Jeudy Go Off on TNF?
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in an AFC West divisional battle to kick off Week 6. Can Jerry Jeudy go off on TNF? Ben Rajavuori shares his Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs same game parlay.
Ben Rajavuori - October 12, 2023, 5:15 PM EDT
9 minDenver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Will Jerry Jeudy Go Off on TNF?
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in an AFC West divisional battle to kick off Week 6. These two teams are in very different boats right now, with the Chiefs sitting 4-1 and tied for the top spot in the AFC, while the Broncos are bottom feeding with a 1-4 record, which is tied for the worst in the AFC. On a short week, what can we expect to see tonight? I have a three-leg +455 same-game parlay from FanDuel to make some extra cheddar on Thursday Night Football.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 12, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Chiefs/Broncos Over 46.5
Primetime unders have been popular for a while now, but this does not seem like a spot to hit the under. The Broncos defense has been, for lack of a better word, utterly horrible. The Bronco's defense ranks 32nd in yards per game (450.6), 32nd in rush yards per game (187.6), and 29th in passing yards per game (263). The Broncos have not been able to slow any team down since Week 2. Hell, the Jets, who have been bombarded by the media with Zach Wilson under center, just put up 31 points on the Broncos this past week... yeah, it's bad. Over the past four weeks, the Broncos have given up a combined 164 points, or 41 per game.
Yes, the weather report is bad for Kansas City tonight, but the Broncos have the worst run defense in the NFL, and the Chiefs have a triple-headed monster in the backfield of Isaiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs will be moving the ball on the ground just as easily as they would through the air. On the other side, the Broncos will be playing catch up, as they have in every game this year, pushing the totals over easily in four straight weeks. The total against the Jets last week was 42.5, and that game hit 52 points. Clearly, the books have not caught on to just how bad this Bronco's defense truly is.
Leg 2: Jerry Jeudy Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Jerry Jeudy has slowly been getting it back since missing Week 1 due to a knee injury. Jeudy had floated around playing 70% of snaps the three weeks after returning from injury, as he was still limited in practices and finding himself on injury reports. Just this last week, Jeudy finally is off the injury report and is looking fully healthy. He played 86% of the snaps last week, which was his highest in 2023 by 10%, and he should be around 90% again tonight, maybe even higher, given that the Broncos will be playing from behind almost certainly.
Jeudy's line tonight is 53.5 yards, and he has averaged 52 yards per game this season. He had seven targets for six receptions and 50 yards last week against an elite Jet's secondary. The week before, he logged fewer snaps dealing with that knee injury but still had three receptions for 52 yards. The week before that, he had 81 yards against the Dolphins. With a fully healthy Jeudy in Week 6, he should serve as the WR1, log his season-high snap percentage, and pass 53.5 yards.
Leg 3: Jerick McKinnon Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
It's a windy and potentially rainy night in Kansas City, with winds around 17 MPH at game time. With that said, in combination with this being a short week, we should expect a heavy run game against the Broncos tonight from the Chiefs. The first and most popular thought that comes to mind is Isiah Pacheco, with his rushing line being steamed. However, I like going to the "number two" guy, Jerick McKinnon, in this spot.
McKinnon was the go-to receiving back for the Chiefs last season, and that has carried over into this season. McKinnon finished fourth on the Chiefs last season with 512 receiving yards, which was the highest amongst running backs by far. Two of his best receiving games came against the Broncos as well last year. In the first meeting last season, McKinnon had 7 receptions for 112 receiving yards. In the second meeting, he had five receptions for 52 receiving yards. His line for tonight is 14.5 receiving yards. This is a line he has topped in three of five games this season, and narrowly missing in another. McKinnon has more targets this year (12) than carries (7).
The Bronco's biggest hole on defense is defending running backs, both on the ground but also through the air. Yes, the Broncos rank last against the run, but they also rank dead last in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to running backs. The Broncos have given up 68 yards through the air to running backs per game, which is over 10 yards higher than any other team. This is a game script with the weather and short week that will favor McKinnon, and when he is used, it is often through the air. He could double this line or triple it even.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay (+455) (Bet $100 to collect $555) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Leg 1: Chiefs/Broncos Over 46.5 @ -114
- Leg 2: Jerry Jeudy Over 53.5 Receiving Yards @ -110
- Leg 3: Jerick McKinnon Over 14.5 Receiving Yards @ -110
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