5 Best Player Prop Picks for Cowboys vs. Eagles on Thursday Night Football

The NFC East rivalry renews as the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season. Fresh off their title run, the Eagles are looking to prove they’re still the team to beat, while the Cowboys come in hungry to bounce back after falling short in 2024. With playoff implications always on the line in this rivalry, both teams know the stakes are high.

The game could hinge on the star power at wide receiver. Philadelphia’s duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith remains one of the most dangerous combinations in the league, capable of taking over a game with big plays downfield. On the other side, CeeDee Lamb is the focal point of Dallas’ passing attack and has proven he can change momentum in an instant, and now adds George Pickens to help spread the defense. With so much talent on both sidelines, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout where the receivers may be the difference.

So which player props should you be taking on Thursday Night Football in this Cowboys vs. Eagles season opener? Let's take a look at the 5 best player props from our oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool.

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Cowboys vs. Eagles Odds

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Cowboys vs. Eagles Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, September 4, 2025
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• How to Watch: NBC

Cowboys vs. Eagles Player Props

1. DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions (+110) Click here to get the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

Kick off the new season by backing DeVonta Smith to exceed his receiving receptions line of 4.5 against the Dallas Cowboys. Looking back at last season's performance, Smith was a consistent target for the Eagles, averaging 4.94 receptions per game, demonstrating his reliable role in the offense. This favorable trend aligns well with the Cowboys' defensive profile from the 2024 season, where they struggled significantly against the pass, ranking 32nd in pass yards per attempt and 31st in opponent QB rating, suggesting a vulnerable secondary for Smith to exploit.

While our AI model projects Smith at 4.4 receptions, it assigns a robust 54.5% probability of him hitting the Over, a clear edge over the market's implied 47.6%. This translates to a compelling 14.4% positive Expected Value, making DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 receptions a high-value play for Week 1.

2. Jahan Dotson Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-114) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

For Week 1, a compelling player prop opportunity emerges with Jahan Dotson to go Over 7.5 Receiving Yards against the Dallas Cowboys. Last season, Dotson demonstrated a consistent role in his team's passing game, averaging a solid 16.81 receiving yards per contest. This matchup is particularly appealing, considering the Dallas Cowboys' defensive struggles against the pass during the 2024 season, where they ranked among the league's worst, including 32nd in pass yards per attempt and 23rd in total pass yards allowed.

These vulnerabilities suggest Dotson could easily exceed this modest line, potentially with just a single reception. Our cutting-edge AI model projects Dotson to secure 11.0 receiving yards, indicating a robust 62.1% probability of hitting the Over. This offers a significant 9.5% value gap over the market's implied probability, translating to an impressive 18.1% positive expected value for this wager.

3. CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (+106) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

CeeDee Lamb's receiving volume presents a compelling bet for his Week 1 clash against the Philadelphia Eagles, specifically on his Over 6.5 Receptions prop. Looking at last season's data, Lamb was a consistent target hog, averaging an impressive 6.73 receptions on over 10 targets per game, demonstrating his crucial role in the Cowboys' offense.

While the Philadelphia Eagles' defense was stout against the pass in 2024, ranking highly in pass yards and completion percentage allowed, elite receivers like Lamb often command their volume regardless of the opponent. Our AI model projects Lamb to hit exactly 6.5 receptions, indicating a 53.4% probability of clearing this line. With the market implying a 51.2% chance, this bet offers a healthy 2.2% value gap and a positive expected value of 4.3%, making it a statistically sound play to kick off the season.

4. Javonte Williams Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (-140) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

We're zeroing in on a high-value opportunity with Javonte Williams to go Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts in his Week 1 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. Looking back at last season's data, Williams averaged just 8.58 rushing attempts, already placing him below this line. This modest workload from the previous year, following his recovery, suggests a cautious approach might continue as the season begins. He faces a sizable challenge against the Eagles' defense, which was exceptional against the run in 2024, ranking 4th in rush yards allowed and yielding an average of only 104.17 rushing yards per game.

This strong defensive front makes ground production difficult, likely leading to fewer opportunities for opposing running backs. Our AI model projects Williams for a mere 8.2 Rushing Attempts, anticipating a tough day on the ground against such a stout unit. This translates to an impressive 62.0% probability of the Under hitting, offering a significant 8.8% value gap over the market's implied 53.2% probability. With a positive Expected Value (EV) of 16.5%, this prop presents a compelling edge for sharp bettors.

5. Dak Prescott Under 23.5 Passing Completions (-109) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Our focus is on Dak Prescott's passing completions as he faces the Philadelphia Eagles, with the line set at Under 23.5. While it's Week 1 and current season data is unavailable, we look to the 2024 season where the Eagles showcased an elite pass defense, ranking 4th in completion percentage allowed and an impressive 1st in overall passing yards allowed, suggesting they are excellent at limiting opposing quarterbacks' volume.

This formidable defensive unit creates a challenging environment for Prescott to rack up completions, aligning with a potential dip below his typical output. Our FairPlay AI model projects Prescott for just 22.2 passing completions, notably below the 23.5 line. This translates to an impressive 60.7% probability of the 'Under' hitting, offering a significant 11.2% edge over the market's implied 49.5% probability, yielding a compelling 22.7% positive EV.

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