Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction: Will Derrick Henry Get A Birthday Feast?
The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Baltimore Ravens on January 4th. In this do-or-die game, can King Henry perform on his birthday and lead the Ravens to the top AFC North spot? McBets is backing him to do so.
McBets - January 4, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
4 Minute ReadBirthday King Henry: Derrick Henry Set to Feast in Win-or-Go-Home Clash
With the stakes as high as they get in Week 18, the Steelers host the Ravens in a true win-or-go-home matchup, with the winner punching a ticket to the playoffs and the loser heading into an early offseason. In games like this, teams tend to lean on what they trust most, and for Baltimore that answer is crystal clear: Derrick Henry. In a pressure-packed environment against a familiar divisional opponent, the Ravens’ path of least resistance runs directly through their veteran workhorse.
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 5:20 PM ET
- How to Watch: NBC/Peacock
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
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Derrick Henry over 85.5 rushing yards
Henry enters this matchup in elite form, clearing 85.5 rushing yards in four straight games while averaging a staggering 135 yards per contest during that span. Baltimore has clearly recommitted to a ground-heavy approach down the stretch, and Henry’s workload has reflected that urgency. When the Ravens have needed to control tempo, protect their quarterback, and close out games, they’ve done so by feeding Henry early and often — a trend that should only intensify with their season on the line.
This matchup also sets up well from a historical standpoint. Henry already faced Pittsburgh earlier this season and handled this exact defense with ease, finishing with 94 rushing yards and covering this number comfortably. While the Steelers are generally respected as a physical defensive unit, the numbers suggest they’re far from impenetrable, allowing 94 rushing yards per game on the season. Against power backs who can consistently win at the line of scrimmage and break tackles at the second level, Pittsburgh has shown vulnerability — a problem when facing one of the most punishing runners the league has ever seen.
Narratives don’t always matter in betting, but sometimes they align with logic, and that’s the case here. Today happens to be Derrick Henry’s birthday, and history suggests he tends to rise to the occasion. In his two career birthday games, Henry erupted for 182 and 138 rushing yards, performances that mirror the type of volume and efficiency Baltimore is likely to seek in this spot. While that alone isn’t the reason to back this prop, it reinforces the expectation that Henry will be a focal point rather than a complementary piece.
Ultimately, this game script strongly favors Henry’s over. The Ravens are in a must-win scenario, playing on the road, facing a division rival, and trying to impose their will physically. That combination almost always leads to a heavy dose of the run game, especially with a back capable of wearing down defenses over four quarters. With recent form, historical success against Pittsburgh, and maximum motivation converging, Derrick Henry eclipsing 85.5 rushing yards feels less like a gamble and more like the Ravens’ blueprint for survival.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pick
- The Play: Derrick Henry over 85.5 rushing yards (-119) Check out these best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
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