2024 The American Express First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back These Four to Start Fast

2024 The American Express First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back to Start Fast

We have opened the week with two easy weeks in Hawaii, where some of the top players have blown away the cobwebs. Now it is time for some of the best in the world to show their worth across three courses this week.

The three-course rotation certainly adds a different dimension this week, and it will be difficult to keep track of who is playing where and how well, but let's look at who can start fast at each course.

We will look at who has been the outright leader after day one, and then those who posted the lowest scores at each respective course.

The three courses in question are, La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course which is used for 36 holes (pre and post the 54-hole cut.)

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First Round Leader Strategy

All three courses are around 7,100 yards. All three are Par 72's. They all feature Bermuda greens, and they are three of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour.

Of the 58 courses ranked last year, these courses ranked 54th, 55th, and 57th most difficult, which means they were all as easy as they come.

It was actually La Quinta that played the toughest of the three last year, while the Stadium Course continues to get easier every single year. Simply put though, none of them are difficult.

You know who is capable of shooting low rounds, and you know all three of these courses will yield birdies, but it will take a bit of digging to see how each player plays at each course.

For now, we will look at the outright leaders in each year, and then identify the lowest scorers in the other courses as well.

Below are the overall first-round leaders here since 2016, when the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Stadium Course joined La Quinta Country Club for the current three-course rotation.

• 2023 - Davis Thompson (62) - 9:40 am (La Quinta)
• 2022 - Patrick Cantlay, Lee Hodges (62) - 10:30 am and 9:30 am tee times (La Quinta)
• 2021 – Brandon Hagy (64) – 10:10 am (Nicklaus Tournament Course)
• 2020 – Grayson Murray (64) – 9:50 am (Stadium Course)/ Zac Blair (64) – 9:40 am (La Quinta)
• 2019 – Phil Mickelson (60) – 9:10 am (La Quinta)
• 2018 – Jon Rahm (62) – 8:40 am (La Quinta)
• 2017 – Dominic Bozzelli (64) - 9:50 am (Stadium Course)
• 2016 – Jason Dufner (64) & Jeff Overton (64) – 10:30 am & 8:30 am (Nicklaus Tournament Course) / Anirban Lahiri & Jerry Kelly (64) – 8:30 am & 10:00 am (La Quinta)

Below are the best scores shot on the other courses

• 2023 - Sam Burns & Matti Schmid (64) Stadium Course, Tyler Duncan (64) Nicklaus Tournament Course
• 2022 - K.H. Lee (64) - 9:58 am (Stadium Course), Danny Lee, Tomy Hoge, Seamus Power, Greyson Sigg (65) Nicklaus Course
• 2021 – Si-Woo Kim (66) – 9:40 am (Stadium Course) - *La Quinta wasn’t used last year
• 2020 – Hank Lebioda (65) – 8:50 am (Nicklaus Tournament Course)
• 2019 – Adam Long (63) – 10:30 am (Nicklaus Tournament Course) / Adam Hadwin (65) – 9:30 am (Stadium Course)
• 2018 – Austin Cook (63) – 9:40 am (Nicklaus Tournament Course) / Grayson Murray (65) – 8:40 am (Stadium Course)
• 2017 – Harold Varner & Hudson Swafford (65) – 8:30 am & 9:30 am (La Quinta) / Jhonattan Vegas & Patton Kizzire (65) 10:10 am & 9:00 am (Nicklaus Tournament Course)
• 2016 – Adam Hadwin (66) – 9:00 am (Stadium Course)

Who in this field started fast on Tour last season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 67.91 – Low Opening Round – 63 (Travelers Championship)
• Xander Schauffele (4th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.62) – Low Opening Round – 62 (U.S. Open)
• Andrew Novak (8th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.04) – Low Opening Round – 654 (Wyndham Championship)
• Stephan Jaeger (10th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.16) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Mexico Open)
• Eric Cole (T13 overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.19) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Travelers Championship)

What score is required to lead after round 1?

You need to shoot a 63 to feel confident about your chances on all three courses, with a 62 potentially required on La Quinta.

64 may well be enough in the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course, so let's look at 63 as the average across the three courses.

The Favorites at Each Course

Here are the favorites on each course, in the First Round Leader market.

These are not picks, we are just identifying the favorites at each course, so you can look at who your picks will have to beat, to shoot the lowest score in round 1.

Sungjae Im to post the lowest score in round 1 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course (+1400 on FanDuel)

Sungjae Im is the favorite to shoot the lowest score at the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the best price you can get on him is +1400 at FanDuel.

Im is +1000 on DraftKings and +1200 on Bet365.

Eric Cole, J.T. Poston to post the lowest score in round 1 at the Stadium Course (+1400 on FanDuel)

Eric Cole and J.T. Poston are joint favorites to shoot the lowest score at the Stadium Course in Round 1.

Poston actually edges favoritism on Bet365, but they are split on DraftKings (+900) and FanDuel (+1400).

Scottie Scheffler to post the lowest round 1 score at La Quinta (+850 on FanDuel)

The #1 player in the world, who led the round 1 scoring average last season - it is no surprise Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to go low at La Quinta.

He shot a 65 here in 2020 but has otherwise failed to shoot a real low one. Is he due a 62 or a 63 on a course that yields some of the lowest scores of the week?

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2024 American Express First Round Leader Picks

Here I will make a pick at each golf course, as we look for the lowest round 1 scores at the Nicklaus Tournament Course, the Stadium Course, and La Quinta Country Club.

There will also be a bonus pick at La Quinta, where I think we can find the best value, as we try and take on Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele.

Matti Schmid to post the lowest score in round 1 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course (+3500 on DraftKings)

Matti Schmid ended 2023 playing incredibly well, and while he let us down in the outright market last week, I think he can bounce back with a fast start on the Nicklaus Tournament Course.

In the Fall Swing, Matti Schmid opened with a 65 at the Shriners Open, another 65 at the World Wide Technology Championship, and a 64 at the Bermuda Championship. A repeat of that sort of form is going to put him in the mix, and he showed he can do that here in 2023.

Schmid shot a 3rd round 65 at the Nicklaus Course here last year, to go alongside two rounds of 64 at the Stadium Course, so it is clear this test could be a good one for him.

Based on his fast starts at the end of last year, and his 65 here last year, I think Schmid is a great candidate for the lowest round 1 score in the Nicklaus course, and he will be in the fourth group out.

Tee times shouldn't make much of a difference as there are only a couple of hours between the first and last starters of the day at each course, but going out early should be beneficial nonetheless.

Alternative Pick: Not sold on Matti Schmid at the Nicklaus Tournament Course? Tom Kim looks great value at +1600 on FanDuel, which is bigger than the +1200 he is elsewhere. He shot a 62 at this course last year and deserves to be among the favorites on this course.

Harrison Endycott to post the lowest score in round 1 at the Stadium Course (+7000 DraftKings)

Harrison Endycott is +7000 to shoot the lowest round 1 score at the Stadium Course on Thursday, which looks to be great value considering he opened with a 65 and closed with a 66 there last year.

It was a tough year in general for the Australian on the PGA Tour, but he has just made his way back to the Tour through Q-School and that brilliant effort came at two Pete Dye courses. Pete Dye also designed this week's Stadium Course, and hopefully, there is some connection there.

T12 at the Fortinet Championship and T22 here last year suggest he likes playing in California, and while he ended 2023 with three missed cuts, Endycott was 2nd after 36 holes at the Sanderson Farms not too long ago.

There is some interest in Endycott in the outright market this week, and while it is hard to see him winning, I think he can beat 51 players at the Stadium Course on Thursday.

I am one and done on this course, as I don't like the Stadium course betting market in Round 1. I think there is better value over at La Quinta!

Davis Thompson to post the lowest score in round 1 at La Quinta (+4000 DraftKings)

Davis Thompson torched La Quinta with an opening round 62 last year, and it looked for a long time like he could win this tournament - eventually losing out to Jon Rahm.

Still, Thompson will have fond memories of his opening round at La Quinta last season, and he gets a chance to run it back this week.

When you look at how Thompson finished 2023, it's very impressive. He opened with a round of 67 at the Sanderson Farms (11th after round 1), a 64 at the Shriners (4th after round 1), a 66 in Mexico (12th after round 1), and a 66 at the RSM Classic (T3 after round 1), which shows he was in great scoring form to end the year.

He got off to a slower start at the Sony Open last week, opening with a round of 73, but he bounced right back with a round of 65 in Round 2, to give us hope of another quick start here in California.

Thompson has already led after round 1 twice on the PGA Tour, a further one time on the Korn Ferry Tour, and he's been within two of the first-round lead 7 times in total, since 2021. He likes a fast start.

Ben Griffin to post lowest score in round 1 at La Quinta (+4000 DraftKings)

He might not be firing for all four rounds at the moment, but Ben Griffin is posting some incredibly low scores, and he can do so again at La Quinta this week.

Griffin is the perfect person to pair with Thompson as we look to take on the favorites, as like Thompson, Griffin showed a knack for going low here on debut.

In 2023, Griffin shot a 3rd round 64 here at La Quinta, and a repeat would see him end round 1 close to the top of this leaderboard. I think he could go even lower based on his most recent starts.

I backed Griffin to be the first round leader last week and he struggled, but he bounced back in round 2 with an incredible 62. Add that to a final-round 61 at the RSM Classic, and second-round 63s at both Bermuda and the Sanderson Farms, and Griffin has clearly been taking it deep.

Let's bank on another here for Griffin.