2024 WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Stallings for a Fast Start

2024 WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Stallings for a Fast Start

The WM Phoenix Open is an electric event and is the perfect warm up for the Super Bowl. Many players will look to get done and dusted early and possibly even make it to Vegas for the game, but who will be motivated to start fast this week?

We are back on a single course for the first time in three weeks, after enduring mult-course rotations at the American Express, Farmers Insurance Open, and Pebble Beach, and I for one am relieved.

We know all about TPC Scottsdale at this point, and it seems like every player in the field has a chance in terms of tee time, which is always a pleasant change. This means we should be picking based on performance and first-round scoring ability, as opposed to "being on the right side of the draw."

Let's look at our strategy going into the week as we make our picks in the 2024 WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader market.

Click here for the latest WM Phoenix Open odds

WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader Strategy

In terms of favorable tee times, there doesn't seem to have been one here in recent years, with AM and PM starters alike, both prospering here in Phoenix. Below, we will look at the last six first-round leaders, since 2018.

• 2023 - Jason Day - 65 (1:17 pm #1 Tee)
• 2022 - K.H. Lee - 65 (8:21 am #10 Tee)
• 2021 - Matthew NeSmith - 63 (7:40 am #10 Tee)
• 2020 - Wyndham Clark - 61 (1:05 pm #10 Tee)
• 2019 - Justin Thomas - 64 (7:50 am #10 Tee)
• 2018 - Bill Haas - 64 (12:29 pm, #10 Tee)

Three first round leaders have come from the morning wave and three have come from the afternoon over the last six years, so that suggests you can take a chance in both waves this week.

There does seem to be more wind late morning and early afternoon as well, but it's quiet early AM and late PM, so both waves should get some calmer conditions.

I would split your picks across both waves equally, based on recent renewals here.

Who in this field started fast on Tour last season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 67.91 – Low Opening Round – 63 (Travelers Championship)
• Adam Scott (2nd Overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 68.50 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers Championship)
• C.T. Pan (6th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.89) – Low Opening Round – 66 (Bermuda Championship)
• Max Homa (8th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.04) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Genesis Invitational)
• Andrew Novak (8th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.04) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Wyndham Championship)

What score is required to lead after round 1?

The average R1 score shot by the leaders here over the past six years is 63.66. That suggests 64 will put you in the hunt, but 63 might be required to feel confident about your first round leader this week.

The Favorites in the First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the WM Phoenix Open.

• Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
• Justin Thomas (+2200)
• Max Homa (+3000)
• Jordan Spieth (+3500)
• Sam Burns (+3500)

2024 WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader Picks

Byeong Hun An +4000 (DraftKings)

Byeong Hun An has been used to early tee times so far this year, but I think he's the type that can get hot in the afternoon in Phoenix, a course he's played well in the past.

In five starts here, An has made the cut each time, and he's been inside the top 12 on four of the five starts after round 1. When he finished 6th on his debut, An opened with rounds of 66-66-65, and a year later he opened 68-67 to start well again. In 2019, An shot two rounds of 66, and he backed that up with rounds of 65 and 66 again in rounds 1 and 2 in 2020.

Throughout his career, Benny An has been within 2 shots of the first-round lead on 30 occasions, and three of those efforts came in 2023. He was within 2 of the first-round lead at the Valspar last year, led after round 1 of the Scottish Open, and then was one back after round 1 of the Wyndham, where he finished 2nd. He has found his mojo again, and now is the time to take advantage of that in Phoenix.

Overall, An has led after round on six occasions and now is the time for him to make it seven, at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.

Byeong Hun An tees off #1 tee at 12:22 pm.

Adam Hadwin +5500 (FanDuel)

Adam Hadwin is a pretty predictable player, in that he plays the same courses well each year, and this is one of them.

He has sat in 2nd place after round 1 in each of the past two seasons here, and for the past seven seasons straight he has shot a round of 67 or better over one of the first two rounds here. 2nd, 2nd, and 12th after round 1 the past three years here, and inside the top 18 after round 1 in 2 of his last 3 events, I think Hadwin makes plenty of sense again.

He is a bit of a specialist in this market, having led after round 1 on four occasions already in his career, and been within two shots of the lead 30 times in total.

While not a prerequisite here, the early tee time should suit him.

Hadwin tees off #1 tee at 8:37 am.

Nate Lashley +10000 (General)

Nate Lashley has shot some low rounds in recent months, including second rounds of 67 and 65 at the Fortinet and the Shriners respectively, as well as a 64 in the first round of the World Wide Technology Championship, where he was 2nd after round 1. That was a good end to 2023, and in his last two events, he has shot rounds of 67 or better in four of the seven rounds.

His 3rd place finish at Torrey Pines last time out was a huge bonus, as that is not a course that would typically suit him, but he now returns to one that he's played well at in the past.

Over his four starts here, he has 3rd and 17th place finishes here in his four starts, and in those two starts he was sat 8th and 3rd after round 1, so he's started fast as well here, which gives me plenty of hope.

Lashley is in the first group out on Thursday morning and that could be hugely beneficial, as the winds start in the last morning and the afternoon. If he can beat the winds starting, then Lashley could get the best of the conditions.

Lashley tees off #10 tee at 7:20 am, with Kevin Yu and Tyson Alexander.

Scott Stallings +12500 (Bet365)

Scott Stallings is a player you can rely on popping up a couple of times a year, whether that is contending in the outright market, or in this market, and this week I am taking the chance for him to lead after round 1.

Three times in his long PGA Tour, Stallings has led after round 1, but he's in the frame regularly, having been within two shots of the first-round lead 29 times in his career. One of those was at this year's American Express where he was 2 back of the lead after round 1 and then went on to miss the cut.

In the past two years, Stallings has started fast here in Phoenix, shooting a 67 to sit two back after round 1 in 2022, and a 66 last year to sit one shot back. In his past three starts in Phoenix, Stallings has been 2nd, 6th, and 12th after round 1.

So far in 2024, he has sat 5th, 7th, and 19th after round 1, and that is encouraging as he returns to a course he's clearly enjoyed in the past. Stallings does tee off in the afternoon, but I think that is fine at this course.

Stallings tees off #1 Tee at 1:06 pm with Cameron Champ and Chad Ramey.