Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg Impress in Orlando?
The PGA Tour heads to Orlando for the fourth signature event of the season, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, this week. Can Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg impress in Orlando? Andy Lack takes a closer look at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Andy Lack - March 4, 2024, 10:32 AM EST
9 minArnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg Impress in Orlando?
After another weather impacted week in Palm Beach at the Cognizant Classic, the PGA Tour heads to Orlando for the fourth signature event of the season. The Arnold Palmer Invitational will receive the signature banner for the second year in a row, but in 2024 the field will be cut nearly in half to just 69 players. Similar to the Genesis Invitational, only the top 50 and ties will advance to the weekend. Bay Hill Club and Lodge remains the host course, and the Dick Wilson design always plays as one of the most tracks on the PGA Tour, particularly since changes were made in 2019. Kurt Kitayama will return to defend his surprise title in 2023, but he will be challenged by the best that the PGA Tour has to offer, including former Arnold Palmer Invitational champions, Rory McIlory and Scottie Scheffler.
Arnold Palmer Invitational DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 7 - March 10, 2024
- Where: Orlando, FL
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Course Preview
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill has been a staple of the PGA Tour since the 70s, and it epitomizes tough, windy, water-heavy, firm, flat Florida golf like few others. Despite featuring an extra par five, Bay Hill is a more challenging golf course than what we saw last week at PGA National. It's longer, firmer, faster, features much thicker rough, and it typically ranks as the hardest par 72 on the PGA Tour schedule. In 2020, when Tyrrell Hatton won at four under par, Bay Hill was the hardest course pros saw all season, including the majors. 2022 came close as well, when Scottie Scheffler won at five under par.
Yet that version of Bay Hill has not always been the status quo. Following Rory McIlroy bulldozing Bay Hill to the tune of 18 under par in 2018, Chris Flynn took over as the head superintendent prior to the 2019 tournament. Among the changes that Flynn made include, widening the fairways, removing a lot of the rough around the hazards (making it easier for balls to roll into the hazards and bunkers), shaving off areas around the green (making it easier for balls to roll farther away from pin locations into collection areas), and making the rough they did have even longer. Since Finch took over, Bay Hill has ranked in the top seven in difficulty each of the last five years.
Bay Hill is the only golf course on Tour outside of most U.S. Open venues to feature three-inch rough and firm greens running 12 on the stimp, and a very distinctive skill profile is required here. It bears a striking resemblance, particularly off the tee, to Marco Simone, host of the 2023 Ryder Cup, in the sense that it rewards accurate driving nearly as much as it rewards long driving. Since the skill profile here is so highly specific, Bay Hill also features the third highest correlation of course history on the PGA Tour, behind only Augusta National and Riviera. This week, I will be primarily be looking for elite total drivers and long iron players, who raise their baseline on long courses with thick rough and firm greens, and have ideally experienced prior success at Bay Hill, and other firm, fast, challenging courses.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Key Stats
- Proximity 200 yards plus
- Total Driving
- Strokes Gained Ball-striking: Firm Golf Courses with Thick Rough
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Outright Picks
Viktor Hovland (+1200) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Viktor Hovland is always a threat anytime he travels to firm, fast, challenging courses with thick rough. The reigning FedEx Cup champion won at both Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields last year, and he also finished runner-up at the PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Now Hovland returns to a similar style course, where he has finished runner-up and tenth in his last two appearances. Bay Hill clearly fits Hovland’s eye from tee to green, as he has gained over nine strokes putting in each of his last two starts at the Dick Wilson design.
The lone major concern with Hovland is his short game, yet a deeper inspection shows that even that is trending in the right direction. Hovland gained strokes around the green at Riviera on both of his weekend rounds, and all his best short game performances of his career have come at either Bermuda courses (TPC Southwind, East Lake, Congaree) or courses with thick rough (Muirfield Village, Los Angeles Country Club). There may be to the fact that courses with thicker rough simply suit Hovland’s chipping style, and we know that we can count on his total driving and long iron play as well.
Ludvig Aberg (+2000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
If I was designing a golf course to perfectly accentuate Ludvig Aberg's skill-set, it would look very similar to Bay Hill. When combining total driving, carry distance, and strokes gained off the tee on driver heavy courses with thick rough, three players separate themselves from the pack: Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, and Ludvig Aberg. I would argue that Bay Hill rewards long and straight driving (and penalizes those who do not have this skill) more-so than any other course on Tour, and due to Aberg’s elite capabilities in this category), the young Scandinavian possesses a tremendous built-in advantage on this course.
Aberg’s long irons have been dramatically improving, as he now ranks in the top 20 in both proximity from 200 yards-plus out of the fairway and out of the rough. Aberg finished 24th at Bay Hill on debut last year, gaining five strokes putting on some of the firmest, fastest, and trickiest greens on Tour. Over a limited sample size, Aberg actually raises his baseline around the green and putting on Bermuda courses, and he has already won the RSM Classic and finished second at the Sanderson Farms in the Southeast. In two appearances on driver-heavy courses with thick rough that emphasize total driving, Aberg finished 24th at Bay Hill in one of his first PGA Tour starts ever, and ninth at Torrey Pines. In pole position after 54 holes, Aberg caught a bad break that Pebble Beach was shortened to 54 holes. This will be the coming out party he deserves.
GOLF ODDS
