2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Four For a Hot Start

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Picks and Predictions

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is an event steeped in tradition, and with a familiar course to look at this week, it's a great time to look at some value on the First Round Leader market.

Look, we know it is a volatile market, but there are definitely patterns to consider each week in the FRL market, including course form, and a player's propensity to start fast.

Will you use the First Round Leader Market to get better value on Rory McIlroy, who has twice been the first round leader here, or will you go for a longshot? We cover all the approaches below, and our strategy for finding first round leader picks.

Florida golf is certainly kinder to some players than others, but will any form carry over from last week's Cognizant Classic, or is Bay Hill too unique of a test in its own right?

Click here for the latest Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader odds

Arnold Palmer First Round Leader Strategy

Here are all the first round leaders here since 2018, plus their tee time, the score they shot, and what tee they started their round from.

• 2023 - Jon Rahm (12:28 pm #1 tee) - 65
• 2022 - Rory McIlroy (8:27 am #10 tee) - 65
• 2021 - Rory McIlroy (8:06 am #10 tee), Corey Conners (12:46 pm #1 tee) - 66
• 2020 - Matt Every (1:07 pm #10 tee) - 65
• 2019 - Rafa Cabrera Bello (7:08 am #1 tee) - 65
• 2018 - Henrik Stenson (12:56 pm #1 tee) - 64

As we can see, there has been an equal split of leaders here in terms of morning and afternoon starters, and the score has generally been fairly consistent. Open with a 65 this week, and you will be in with a shot of leading after round one.

Four of the seven first round leaders/co-leaders here since 2018 have been 33/1 or shorter, as Jon Rahm (18/1), Rory McIlroy (25/1 and 18/1), and Henrik Stenson (33/1) were among the favorites in this market.

The gusts are slightly higher both early morning and late afternoon, with the wind quietest through the middle part of the day, but there shouldn't be much to consider here.

Don't get too caught up in tee times this week, as we have seen players from both waves lead here after round 1 in the past and the wind is fairly light this Thursday.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 67.91 – Low Opening Round – 63 (Travelers Championship)
• Adam Scott (2nd Overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 68.50 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers Championship)
• Ludvig Aberg (3rd overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.54) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
• Xander Schauffele (4th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.62) – Low Opening Round – 62 (US Open)
• Viktor Hovland (5th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.86) – Low Opening Round – 64 (RBC Heritage)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

65 has been good enough to lead here in four of the last six editions, with 66 leading last year and 64 leading in 2018, so it all averages out to 65.

The Favorites in the First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

• Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
• Rory McIlroy (+1800)
• Viktor Hovland (+2200)
• Ludvig Aberg (+2500)
• Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
• Xander Schauffele (+2500)

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Picks

Here are my first round leader picks for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, as we look for a pick at each price point this week.

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (General)

The formula for Patrick Cantlay could not be simpler this week. So far in 2024, he has opened with rounds of 66, 64, 65, 64, and 64 in Round 1. His 64 to open at Riviera was enough to lead.

Cantlay's round 1 position after the last three events has been 2nd, 2nd, and 1st, and he's not been worse than 7th after round 1 this season. He will be looking for instant redemption after choking away the Genesis Invitational, and he can get off to a fast start to set himself up for that this week.

Over the past five years, Cantlay has ranked 1st (current), 26th, 8th, 7th, and 8th in Round 1 Scoring Average, so it is no fluke when he starts fast. Cantlay has held five first round leads in his career on the PGA Tour, one of which came in Florida at the Players Championship, and overall he's been within two of the first round lead 29 times overall.

Bookmark rounds of 68 to open and close his debut here last year, saw him inside the top 5 to start and end the week, and I think he can go even lower in his current Thursday form.

Cameron Young +3300 (BetRivers)

I am not convinced Cameron Young can win this week, he's shown on multiple occasions that he finds that tough, but what he's also shown is he's capable of getting off to a fast start.

In two starts here, Young has finished 13th and 10th, opening with a 70 on debut, before shooting a 67 in round 1 last season to sit 2nd.

66 to open the RSM Classic at the end of 2023 saw him sit 3rd after round one, and then he opened 2024 by leading in Dubai at the end of Thursday's play. Two opening rounds of 67 at the Phoenix Open saw him start fast again (this time 8th after round 1) and then he again opened last week's event with a 65 to sit 3rd.

15 times already in his career, Cam Young has been within two of the first round lead, and on 6 occasions he's led after round 1. He's done so in big events, most notably the 2022 Open Championship, and he's clearly capable of shooting out the blocks on Thursday.

Adam Scott +4500 (General)

Adam Scott has had a bit of a mixed run at Bay Hill, with two 3rd place finishes and a 12th to his name, but plenty of middling results as well.

The good news is, he's played here 13 times and on 5 of those occasions he's been inside the top 8 after round 1. He led here after round 1 in 2014, opening with a round of 62, and leading right up until the final day, and in the following two years, he was 7th after round 1 (two back) and 2nd after round 1 (1 back).

Sure, 2014-2016 was a long time ago now, but Scott has been rolling back the years with his recent play, and I think a hot start is certainly possible for the Australian.

He hasn't been starting the fastest this season, but I have a gut feeling he can post a low one on Thursday, despite going out in the final two-ball of the day with Sami Valimaki.

Chris Kirk +5000 (BetRivers)

I am happy to admit, I had FOMO not picking an early starter this week, and that is why I have added Chris Kirk at the end here. The top three were always going to be picked for me this week no matter the tee time, but I also wanted someone that could go out and post a score if the morning wave does get the better of it.

Kirk has played at Bay Hill 11 times in his career, and on 2 of those occasions he sat within two of the first round lead. Last year he opened with a 67 to sit two back and in 2016 he opened with a 68 to be in the same position, but he's generally fired some good rounds here over the years.

Five rounds of 69 or better here since 2018 is consistent golf and with six top 16 finishes here in 11 starts, it is clear Chris Kirk has found a way to tame Bay Hill.

Kirk shot two 65s and a 66 en route to victory at the Sentry, backed that up with a pair of 66s at the Sony, and another 64 at the AMEX, and he closed last week out with a round of 65, so it clear Kirk is capable of shooting low rounds in 2024.

I like Kirk, and he likes Bay Hill, so it made perfect sense, when looking for a player from the early morning wave.