Players Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Burns, Harman at TPC Sawgrass

Players Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Burns, Harman at TPC Sawgrass

The Players Championship is the biggest event outside of the majors, and we are looking for a player at 40/1 or bigger to win at TPC Sawgrass. At first, this might seem a tall task, but I think it's certainly doable, even if Scottie Scheffler's win last week returned some parity to the PGA Tour.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are unsurprisingly the leaders in the market this week, and while Scheffler is far shorter than everyone else in the Players Championship market, he has to achieve something no one else has before.

If Scottie Scheffler was to win this week he would be the first player to ever defend his crown at TPC Sawgrass, and considering this is the 50th renewal of the event, it looks a tall task. To say the odds are stacked against him would be inaccurate, as he is the +550 favorite, but it does look difficult.

The best finish by a defending champion is a tie for 5th place (three times) and you have to go back to 2005 for the last defending champion to finish inside the top 10! All this to say... Let's take on Scottie Scheffler!

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Players Championship, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your first bet wins.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the Players Championship

We are back to a course where strategy matters more than just pure distance, and where any player can prosper if playing well that week. Driver will be taken out of a player's hands on several holes here, and the emphasis will no doubt be placed on approaches more than anything else.

SG Approach - Since 2019, every winner has ranked 6th or better in SG Approach the week they won here, although Tee to Green overall must be considered as well, as three of the last five winners have led in that category.

Par 5 Scoring - Every winner barring Cam Smith has shot -9 or better on the Par 5s here the week they won. Smith did a lot of things unconventionally that week, so I am happy to overlook the fact that he was only -7 on the long holes, and instead focus on the fact it has been a big part of the reason people have won here. Scheffler won here at -17, shooting -11 on the Par 5s and Justin Thomas won at -14 and was (checks notes... -14) on the Par 5s. It is clearly important to take care of the birdie opportunities here.

Pete Dye Form - Pete Dye courses all come with similar quirks and we have seen plenty of evidence over the years to suggest Dye specialists can compete here. Si Woo Kim won at +50000 here in 2017, and he's also won the Amex, and lost in a play-off at the RBC Heritage, both Dye designs. Webb Simpson who was the next longest winner since 2010 (+10000) has also won the RBC Heritage and has a top 5 at the Travelers, so it is something to consider.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win The Players Championship?

Well, we have already referenced Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim's surprise victories above, but have any other longshots won at TPC Sawgrass in recent years? Let's look at the odds of every Players Champion since 2010.

2023 - Scottie Scheffler (+1000)

2022 - Cameron Smith (+3000)

2021 - Justin Thomas (+2000)

2019 - Rory McIlroy (+1400)

2018 - Webb Simpson (+10000)

2017 - Si Woo Kim (+50000)

2016 - Jason Day (+1200)

2015 - Rickie Fowler (+6600)

2014 - Martin Kaymer (+9000)

2013 - Tiger Woods (+900)

2012 - Matt Kuchar (+5500)

2011 - Tim Clark (+10000)

This list perfectly illustrates the Players Championship. Here we have a list of highly recognizable names in golf, but not all were expected to win The Players Championship, looking at the odds.

50% of the winners here would qualify for this sleepers and value picks article, but there has been a worrying trend of no longshot winners at TPC Sawgrass since 2018. One thing to note is that the Players moved back to March, back in 2019, and that is when this current run of winners started... Is the weather the defining factor?

Players Championship Betting Trends

Looking at the last 11 years of the Players Championship, we can identify some strong trends when looking for a winner. Here are the most interesting pointers.

33 and Out? - 10 of the last 11 winners at TPC Sawgrass have been 33 or younger the year they won The Players. The exception? Tiger Woods. This looks to be a younger man's course, which might be surprising given the power of course knowledge here.

Previous Career Wins - 9 of the last 11 winners here had won 4 or more times in their career before winning here. The exceptions were Si Woo Kim, who was the youngest ever Players Champion (21 at the time), and Rickie Fowler, who had won three times worldwide before winning here, and has since won four more times on the PGA Tour. As much as we have seen shocks over the years, a Players win has generally been an indicator of a very capable PGA Tour winner.

Top 10 on the Season? - 9 of the last 11 winners at TPC Sawgrass had already finished inside the top 10 on Tour that year. Martin Kaymer (who also went on to win the US Open that year) and Si Woo Kim were the exceptions. Even Webb Simpson who was +10000 when he won, had posted multiple top 10s on the season.

Wyndham Championship Correlation - It is not a Pete Dye, but a Donald Ross course that seemingly provides the most crossover. Sedgefield Country Club is the host venue of the Wyndham and no less than six winners there have also won at TPC Sawgrass. Yes, that is six players who have won both the Wyndham and the Players, and all but one of them have come since 2008. Those players are, Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim (the two longest-odds winners here in recent years), and, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, and K.J Choi. Davis Love III makes up the six, having won here in 2003 and at Sedgefield in the twilight of his career, in 2015.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Players Championship

Here are my four picks for the 2024 Players Championship, all of which are +4000 or bigger.

Sam Burns +4000 (Bet365)

I have recently bet Sam Burns to win the Masters, as he looked the odd one out in terms of value vs. current form, and I can see it improving further on the East Coast.

The World No.20 has not missed a cut since The Open Championship last July and he's turned that steady run into contending form in 2024. Since the turn of the year, the 5-time PGA Tour winner has finished inside the top 10 in 4 of his 6 starts, with his 33rd at The Sentry his worst finish of the new season.

Burns is a two-time winner in Florida, albeit at a different test at the Valspar, and he's shown enough here over the years as well. Burns didn't make his debut here until 2021, when he missed the cut by a mile, but since then he's finished 26th and 35th, both times being better placed going into the weekend.

Burns was the 36-hole leader here in 2022 and was still in 2nd going into the final round, and then last year he was 9th after round 1 and 20th going into the weekend. He will need to figure out how to play four rounds here to win obviously, but he's more than capable of doing that on his fourth visit.

He won't jump off the page statistically, but he does have the 'it factor' and he's a player that we know is more than up for a big event. The next stage of his career is to contend in majors, and this would be a good segue into that level.

Three times in his career, Burns has been within three shots of the lead going into the final round at a Pete Dye course (2019 Heritage, 2022 Players, 2024 Amex), and he will look to finally strike on the most famous layout of them all.

Brian Harman +6600 (BetMGM)

Brian Harman has played well at TPC Sawgrass and other Pete Dye venues over the years, and at +6600, the World No.9 and the most recent major winner is overpriced.

I might not have said that a week ago, but since then he's finished 12th at Bay Hill, a far less suitable course than this one, and he was actually the 36-hole leader there last week. This was a welcome return to contention for Harman, who will surely feel more comfortable from a similar position here at Sawgrass this week.

Harman is all about his approach play and on his day his putting, and taking the driver out of his hands will be no great loss. This has actually allowed him to gain strokes off the tee here over the years and it is something that can aid his chances given the distance he gives up elsewhere. You have to go back to the Match Play last year for the last time Harman hit his approaches as well as he did last week when he ranked 3rd for SG App and 9th for SG Tee to Green, and hopefully, that is a sign of more to come.

The Open Champion has three top 8 finishes to his name here, highlighted by a 3rd in 2021, and it is his correlative form that also stands out. Harman has posted five top 10s in six years at the Travelers, which is played on another Pete Dye design, TPC River Highlands, and he's also enjoyed 3rd and 6th places at the Wyndham Championship, my favorite crossover. Add in 3rd and 8th place finishes at the American Express, and 7th, 7th, and 9th place finishes at the RBC Heritage, and you have all the positive signs you need from a correlation perspective.

I can't get away from the fact that Harman put on his best ball-striking performance in some time last week, now returns to a more suitable test, and is still available at 66/1.

Tom Hoge +6600 (Bet365)

At some point, Tom Hoge is going to do something with this electric run of ball striking he's on, and it might as well be in the biggest tournament of the year so far.

He is now the leader in SG Approach, overtaking Scottie Scheffler for the season, and he's led the field in that department in two of his last three starts. Hoge also ranked 3rd for SG Tee to Green last week, so you can guess what held him back from finishing even better than 12th at Bay Hill. His 12th there last week was his best at that course so far, and he now returns to a layout he loves.

Hoge finished 3rd here last year, after breaking the course record with a Saturday 62, which he followed up with a Sunday 70 to climb 5 spots. This was a year after he led for the first two rounds in 2021, and after he was 6th after round 1 in 2019. Simply put, since missing the cut on debut here, Hoge has enjoyed Sawgrass, and that is no surprise when you consider the strength of his game.

2nd, 6th, and 17th place finishes at the Amex provide more form at Pete Dye courses, and on current form he could pepper flags all week long. Sure, this run of iron play can't last forever, after all, he's not Scottie Scheffler, but he's doing his best impression of him on approach right now, and that is enough for me to side with him again.

Erik Van Rooyen +13000 (DraftKings)

Erik Van Rooyen has enjoyed a steady start to 2024, after returning back to the Winners' Circle in 2023, and now he can compete for the biggest title of his career.

We bet on Van Rooyen at +4000 at the Mexico Open, and he led after round 1 that week before finishing in 8th place. A week later he finished 2nd in Florida, at the Cognizant Classic, thanks to a final round 63.

25th last week at Bay Hil suggested he's still in good enough shape to carry his form into this event, where he has finished 13th on his one and only Players start, back in 2022. The South African was 3rd after 36 holes that year, and sure it looks like the occasion got to him, but he's a winner again since and looks in better form this time around.

Van Rooyen gained over 11 strokes on approach on his debut here two years ago, and while Russell Henley somehow managed to better him with his irons that week, it was a strong indication of what he can do around here. Whether he has any chance of replicating iron play quite that good remains to be seen, but he should arrive full of confidence, and at triple digits, I think he's worth chancing.

He has twice gone into the final round with a chance to win on another Dye design at the RBC Heritage, as he was one back going into Sunday in 2022, and a shot further back two years previously in 2021, so he likes these sorts of tests. Add his 2nd at the Cognizant, and 10th at the Valspar to his 13th on debut here, and Florida looks a good stop for Van Rooyen in general.